以后，可能是一边耗着，一边谈。 看到最后，谁会受不了。
伊朗经济有多少依靠石油出口？
Approximately 40% to 60% of the Iranian government's budget relies on oil and gas revenues, serving as a critical, yet volatile, economic lifeline. While sanctions create, according to The Energy War Iran Can't Win - FDD, significant fluctuations, high-volume exports—largely to China—brought in roughly $53-$54 billion in 2022-2023, according to Iran’s Petroleum Exports to China and U.S. Sanctions | Congress.gov.
- Dependency Fluctuations: Despite efforts to diversify, the government remains heavily dependent on oil, with Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran noting an average of 60% of revenue often comes from oil and gas.
- Recent Budget Estimates: As of late 2023, the government's share of oil exports was estimated at roughly 42.5% of the total budget.
- Impact of Sanctions: Although Iran’s crude oil exports: what minimum is enough to stay afloat? - Atlantic Council reported a goal to reduce this dependency to 20%, intense international pressure and sanctions, as detailed by The Energy War Iran Can't Win - FDD, have forced the economy to rely on consistent, albeit often discounted, oil exports to China to maintain state finances.
- Revenue Allocation: A significant portion of these revenues funds the military and security apparatus, with, according to Khamenei, IRGC boost share of Iran’s oil revenues and state assets, nearly one-third directly allocated to the armed forces in recent projections
美国经济除了油价高些，应该不会有太大的影响。但川普得承受很大的政治风险，中期选举输的机会本来很大，现在这么以来，是铁定的输，而且是大输。
东亚的经济可能影响比较大。 但东亚不是player。 中国是个变量，它可以成为player，施压美国, 也可以不成为player, 转向俄罗斯寻求更多石油。
Based on 2025–2026 data, China imports approximately 12% to 15% of its total crude oil from Iran. This accounts for over 80% to 90% of Iran’s total oil exports, with independent Chinese refiners ("teapots") acting as the primary buyers, attracted by significant discounts on sanctioned barrels.
