我问AI：What’s the percentage of U.S. imports from Middle East？

Short answer: very small—typically only ~5% to 10% of U.S. urea imports come from the Middle East (and often even less in recent years).

 

But the nuance matters more than the headline number.

 

 

 

 

U.S. urea import breakdown (approximate)

 

 

Typical sourcing mix:

 

• Trinidad & Tobago → ~30–40%
• Canada → ~10–20%
• North Africa (Egypt, Algeria) → ~10–20%
• Others (incl. occasional Russia, etc.) → variable
• ? Middle East (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc.) → ~5–10%

 

 

So even if Hormuz shuts:

 

• Direct U.S. exposure is limited

 

 

 

 

 

Why the impact is still bigger than it looks

 

 

Here’s the key insight:

 

The Middle East matters less to U.S. imports

But a lot to global pricing

 

They’re major global exporters, so when they’re disrupted:

 

• Europe and Asia scramble for replacement supply
• They start bidding for cargoes from:
  • Trinidad
  • North Africa
  • even U.S.-bound shipments
•  

 

 

That pulls supply away from the U.S. and pushes prices up

 

 

 

 

Think of it like this

 

 

• Direct hit to U.S. supply: small (5–10%)
• Indirect price impact: large

 

 

 

 

 

What actually happens in practice

 

 

If Middle East exports drop:

 

1. U.S. loses a small slice of imports
2. Global buyers compete harder for remaining supply
3. Prices rise everywhere
4. U.S. imports still arrive—but at higher prices

 

 

 

 

 

Bottom line

 

 

• Direct dependence: low (~5–10%)
• Indirect exposure (via global markets): high

 

 

So Hormuz disruption =

not a “we can’t get fertilizer” problem

but a “everything just got more expensive” problem