The Illusion Of Conquests. And Peace
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Mykolaiv – In the past few hours, three violent explosions have rocked the center of regional cities such as Lviv and Dnipro, as well as the city from which we are writing.
These were not aerial bombings, but attacks, the origin of which was Russian-led, resulting in the wounding of over 30 police officers and the death of one patrol officer, in addition to damaging buildings and vehicles.
The attackers admitted to having been recruited on Telegram by Russian agents who, in exchange, offered them enough money to settle existing debts.
Another explosion rocked buildings in the regional center of Mykolaiv yesterday morning. When we approached to record the aftermath, a series of long-range Russian drones – Shahed/Geran’ type – swept through the skies of this oblast’, aiming for the same target, only to be diverted by Ukrainian anti-aircraft fire.
Kyiv intelligence has warned that Russia is also turning various properties across Western Europe into a Trojan horse network to conduct coordinated sabotage operations, purchasing homes, warehouses, schools, and even islands near military and civilian targets in at least a dozen European countries, taking advantage of a weak legal framework.
Likewise, the new head of MI6, Blaise Metreveli, emphasized that «the United Kingdom operates in the space between peace and war», adding that «Russia is testing the West with tactics just short of open conflict».
This includes the false information spread by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin regarding alleged Anglo-French plans to introduce nuclear weapons into Ukraine, while the Kremlin is already orchestrating attacks on European transport, energy, and communications networks. Unable to yet afford an open confrontation with NATO, the Russian Federation is testing its resolve with unevenly distributed sabotage campaigns, such as the one against the German DHL network, already intercepted in 2024.
On a larger scale, this mirrors the situation on the battlefield, which sees the Russians unable to conduct conventional military operations aimed at bringing about a large-scale turning point on the front.
Having for months now thrown more men into the Ukrainian meat grinder than it can recruit, Moscow sends micro-units – sometimes consisting of just a couple of soldiers – to various points in a kill zone that extends for thousands of kilometers. In these short sorties, these small groups, equipped with thermal film to evade the thermal imaging cameras of Ukrainian drones, often have the sole task of taking a selfie with the Russian flag before being neutralized.
As we described yesterday, in the context of a war that, since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, is being increasingly fought with fake news, this is aimed at giving the impression of a rapid Russian advance against the backdrop of alleged ‘peace negotiations’.
The latest episode in a very long series we’ve documented from the field occurred yesterday in Rizdvyanka, a small settlement located in Zaporizhzhia Oblast’, firmly under Ukrainian control, which the Russian Ministry of Defense has instead declared «conquered».
This integrated hybrid-warfare strategy aims to achieve maximum impact at minimum cost.
The cognitive pressure is greater than the military advance because the objective is no longer the terrain but perception.
Moscow is concerned with producing visual evidence to display on the sidelines of talks built on the idea – supported by Donald Trump – of Russian invincibility.
The temporal coordination of attacks that were more terrorist than conventional military, with the launch of drones that we witnessed, indicates the intention to produce a psychological effect that outweighs the military value of the target, which is often limited to administrative buildings like the one we were in yesterday in Mykolaiv.
The projection of similar sabotage operations in Europe, in which Moscow employs not only its own direct assets but also vulnerable local citizens to physically pre-position latent infrastructure, demonstrates that the preparatory phase of war is already underway.
What some analysts have called a «thousand cuts strategy» is nothing more than the evolution of the Russian doctrine of ‘non-linear warfare’, as theorized by the Russian Chief of Staff, Valery Gerasimov.
Russia – a country with a GDP equivalent to Italy’s, a territory 56 times larger, and a population slightly more than double – is today structurally limited and already highly exposed to attacks like those Ukraine has launched, from which it cannot defend itself. Unable to bring a conventional twist to the war it has unleashed, it needs to sustain internal morale and the perception of progress until it finds political support in Washington and economic support in Brussels. There’s no need to learn Chinese to understand how the war may end.
The ongoing blackouts severely damaged our house’s heating system in Western Ukraine while we were in the Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldn’t circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesn’t work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Alla’s parents live there, but there’s still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
We’re renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. We’ll keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends
征服的幻象与和平
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道
尼古拉耶夫 — 过去数小时内，利沃夫、第聂伯等地区性城市市中心以及我们发稿的这座城市，接连发生三起剧烈爆炸。
这些并非空袭，而是有明确来源的袭击，且系由俄罗斯一方发起，导致30余名警务人员受伤、1名巡逻警察死亡，并造成多处建筑与车辆受损。
袭击者承认在电报（Telegram）上被俄罗斯特工招募，作为交换，对方承诺给予足以偿还其现有债务的报酬。
昨晨，另一枚爆炸袭击了尼古拉耶夫地区中心的建筑。当我们接近那里去记录善后情况时，一批远程俄罗斯无人机——沙赫德/格兰（Geran）型——掠过该州上空，瞄准同一目标，但被乌克兰防空火力拦截偏离。
（图：Alla 在乌克兰尼古拉耶夫报道 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
基辅情报部门已警告称，俄罗斯还在将西欧各地若干房产变成特洛伊木马式网络，以便发动协调破坏行动：即在至少十几个欧洲国家购买住宅、仓库、学校，甚至在军民目标附近购置岛屿，充分利用了薄弱的法律框架为所用。
同样，英国军情六处新任首领布莱斯·梅特列维利强调：“英国在和平与战争之间的空间内行动”，并补充道：“俄罗斯正以接近但尚未演变为公开冲突的战术试探西方。”
这包括俄罗斯独裁者弗拉基米尔·普京散布的虚假信息，宣称英法有计划向乌克兰引入核武器；与此同时，克里姆林宫已在策划对欧洲交通、能源与通信网络的袭击。鉴于尚无法承担与北约的公开对抗，俄罗斯以分散且不对称的破坏行动试探对方意志，例如针对德国DHL网络的袭击案——该案在2024年已被截获。
在更大范围上，这与战场局势相呼应：俄军无法通过常规军事行动在前线制造大规模转折。
数月来，莫斯科向乌克兰的绞肉机投入的兵力已超过其征召能力，向延伸数千公里的杀伤区域各点派出微型作战组——有时仅由两三名士兵组成。在这些短暂突袭中，这些小组往往携带红外伪装膜以规避乌方无人机的热成像摄像头，往往其唯一任务甚至只是举着俄旗自拍，然后被歼灭。
正如我们昨日所述，自唐纳德·川普重返白宫以来愈演愈烈的假新闻语境中，这类行动旨在制造俄军快速推进的假象，配合所谓的“和平谈判”背景。
我们从前线记录的一系列长篇事例中，最新一例发生在昨日位于里茲德维安卡，这是位于扎波罗热州的一个小定居点，实则牢牢在乌克兰控制之下，已俄罗斯国防部却宣称该地已“被占领”。
（图片来源：RBK）
这种综合性混合战策略旨在以最低成本取得最大影响。
认知压力超过军事推进，因为目标不再是单纯占领地面，而是塑造公众感知。
莫斯科致力于制造可在以“俄罗斯不可战胜”为理念（并得到唐纳德·川普支持）的谈判边缘展示的视觉证据。
（图：我在撰写本文前拍的照片，当时我与Alla正在乌克兰赫尔松州报道 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
我们目击的、更偏向恐怖袭击而非常规军事行动的时序性攻击，以及无人机发射，表明其目的是产生超越目标军事价值的心理效应，这些目标往往仅限于行政办公楼，正如我们昨日在尼古拉耶夫所在之地。
将类似破坏行动投向欧洲，莫斯科不仅动用自身直接力量，还利用脆弱的当地民众实地预置潜在基础设施，表明战争的准备阶段已在进行中。
（图：我在顿巴斯面向乌克兰草原辽阔地带——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
一些分析人士所称的“千刀削”策略，不过是对俄罗斯参谋长瓦列里·格拉西莫夫所提出的“非线性战争”学说的发展演变。
俄罗斯——一个GDP与意大利相当、国土面积大约是意大利的56倍、人口略多于意大利两倍的国家——如今在结构上受限，且高度暴露于像乌克兰发起的此类攻击之下而无法自我防御。无法以常规方式改变其发动之战的走向，俄方需维系国内士气和进展的表象，直到在华盛顿获得政治支持、在布鲁塞尔获得经济支持。无需学复杂的语言也能看出这场战争可能的结局。
（图：照片中Alla正在尼古拉耶夫现场报道 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
持续的停电严重损坏了我们在乌克兰西部的家中的供暖系统，而我们当时就在顿巴斯。
没有电，点着的炉火无法通过水泵循环热水。结果，系统起火，整个房子面临着烧毁的风险。幸而未被烧毁，但整个系统需要更换，房子也需要修复。管道都是歪的，墙壁被烟雾熏黑，供暖系统无法正常工作，需要彻底更换。
我们正在尽最大努力，因为Alla的父母住在那里，但这里还有许多工作要做，周围的人处境也好不到哪儿去。
我们正在重启筹款活动，感谢每一位支持我们修复被俄罗斯摧毁一切的朋友。即使是小额捐款也有帮助。我们会及时更新进展。
感谢大家，朋友们。
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