西方的纵容如何助长俄罗斯对乌克兰能源电网的战争
How Western Impunity Fuels Russia’s War on Ukraine’s Energy Grid
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Dnipro – Donald Trump’s decoupling of peace and justice has further altered the moral asymmetry of the conflict, restoring to Moscow a sense of impunity that allows it to perpetrate horrendous crimes while brazenly escaping consequences.
In the hours preceding the writing of this article, the Russian Federation has launched massive strikes on the region I’m writing from. Throughout the night, explosions of varying magnitude have erupted in Dnipro, and the sky has been constantly torn by the deadly drone of Russian drones targeting five districts. The targets include businesses, residential and administrative buildings, shops, educational centers, apartment buildings, cars, and, above all, energy infrastructure. Russian air forces have struck civilian targets in Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol’, Synelnykove, Krynychany, and the Dnipropetrovsk capital.
More generally, Moscow has blanketed 12 regions of Ukraine.
In Odesa, the Russians set fire to a machine shop, destroyed shops, garages, and warehouses, and damaged yet another energy infrastructure facility belonging to the DTek group. In Kirovohrad, they burned a house and the cars parked outside. In Sumy, they attacked the homes of residents of Kirikivka, killing a 68-year-old woman and wounding her 42-year-old son, her 40-year-old daughter-in-law, their two children, ages 7 and 15, as well as a 79-year-old woman and a 54-year-old man. All were civilians. They join the dozens of children massacred by the Russians, which I wrote about yesterday. In Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Kropyvnytskyi, explosions reverberated until mid-morning. Despite this being a combined air strike, which involved 396 high-explosive drones and 29 other missiles of various types, the precision of those strikes is appalling. Suffice it to say that in Donetsk, a Russian drone fatally struck three technicians at the Sloviansk power plant who were driving to work.
«A combined strike, specifically calculated to cause as much damage as possible to our energy sector», President Zelensky declared.
Moscow, however, strikes because it is allowed to.
The sequence of attacks that Alla Perdei and I have been documenting from the field for over 1,450 days is the result of the perception of impunity that continues to pervade the halls of the Kremlin.
A systemic attack like this, carried out for four years now, can only be halted if at least one of the following conditions is met: if its military cost is unsustainable; if the regime carrying it out is politically isolated; or if there is a credible threat of escalation from the West. Having failed to perceive some of these limits each time he tested them, Vladimir Putin has exceeded them.
In twelve years of war, four on a large-scale, the West has never imposed truly punishing sanctions on Moscow, instead fueling the core business – and thus the war machine – of a regime that has even been fully reinstated on the international stage, politically, with a red carpet and a pompous parade arranged by its former principal enemy. Rather than strengthening the strategic deterrent of the country that was fighting that regime at a very high cost and on behalf of the entire West, it chose to weaken it with inane operational caveats and the systematic denial of any means to counter it.
During a press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio feigned shock the day before yesterday, wondering how his president is receiving so much criticism «despite aspiring to peace».
Donald Trump is now primarily responsible for the Russian perception of impunity. Constant verbal attacks on NATO, repeated declarations of understanding toward Putin, slanders directed at Zelensky, public delegitimization of American institutions, the imposition of tariffs, and constant threats to historic US allies, along with winks at the worst regimes on earth, have served as a strategic signal to Moscow, which has interpreted Western division as a window of opportunity. This is not a matter of political style but of a transactional approach to war, which Trump has presented as a very high cost to be ended quickly by rewarding the aggressor.
The rhetorical equidistance adopted by Washington constitutes not just a semantic but a strategic shift. A major one.
As Russian dissident Gary Kasparov said yesterday, Trump has even put a price on the territories Ukraine has been defending with its own blood for 12 years, turning the US into a «banana republic».
What Rubio calls a «negotiated peace» is a stabilization of aggression. It freezes Russian occupation lines without any deterrence, while guaranteeing that the Russian presence would, if anything, be legalized in Europe through the creation of a «free economic zone in Donbas», which amounts to the normalization of the illicit act.
Kasparov’s polemical assessment stems from an observation: a superpower that spreads instability reduces its capacity for external deterrence.
Russia continues its indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, aiming to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, because it fears no direct escalation, is not subject to truly crippling sanctions, and believes that time is on its side.
In 2014, it occupied Crimea and part of Donbas. In 2022, it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since 2024, it has been bringing Ukraine’s energy system to its knees. Whenever the cost has not outweighed the benefit, the escalation has continued.
The «deterrence» so much discussed in Munich these days is therefore a matter of perception, not just material capacity. Specifically, in the war unleashed by Putin, what matters is what Moscow believes Washington is willing to do.
Trump doesn’t want to restore legality but to «end» an issue he considers external to the Western Hemisphere. For Putin, this means being able to increase pressure to secure a favorable ceasefire, knowing that Russia’s responsibilities are —and will be— downplayed.
By saying that «Zelensky must seriously sit down at the negotiating table», Trump once again yesterday used gangster-like language to pressure the attacked party into making territorial concessions while the aggressor stands firm.
This isn’t pacifism, as Rubio claims. It’s aiding and abetting a crime.
The ongoing blackouts severely damaged our house’s heating system in Western Ukraine while we were in the Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldn’t circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesn’t work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Alla’s parents live there, but there’s still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
We’re renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. We’ll keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends
西方的纵容如何助长俄罗斯对乌克兰能源电网的战争
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道
第聂伯罗 —— 唐纳德·川普将和平与正义割裂开来，进一步改变了冲突中的道德不对称，赋予莫斯科一种有罪不罚的错觉，使其能够肆无忌惮地实施骇人听闻的罪行而厚颜无耻地逃避惩罚。
在撰写本文的数小时前，俄联邦对我所处地区发动了大规模袭击。整夜，大小不一的爆炸在第聂伯此起彼伏，俄罗斯无人机致命的嗡鸣声不断划破夜空，袭击波及五个区。目标包括商业机构、居民和行政建筑、商店、教育机构、公寓楼、汽车，尤以能源基础设施为甚。俄罗斯空军对克里维里赫、尼科波尔、塞涅利尼科韦、克雷尼查内以及第聂伯陀罗斯克首府的民用目标实施了打击。
总的来说，莫斯科肆虐乌克兰12个州。
在敖德萨，俄军放火焚烧了一个机修厂，摧毁了商店、车库和仓库，并又一次破坏了属于DTek集团的另一处能源设施。在基罗沃格勒，他们烧毁了一座房屋及停在外面的车辆。在苏梅，他们袭击了基里基夫卡居民的住处，致一名68岁妇女被杀，其42岁的儿子、40岁的儿媳、两名分别为7岁和15岁的孙子，以及一名79岁妇女和一名54岁男子受伤。所有受害者均为平民。俄军屠杀的几十名儿童之列又多了2名——对此我在昨天已有报道。在文尼察、利沃夫与克罗皮夫尼茨基，爆炸声一直回荡到上午中旬。尽管此次为一次联合空袭，动用了396枚高爆无人机和29枚其它型号导弹，但其打击的准确性令人发指。仅举一例，在顿涅茨克，一枚俄制无人机在斯洛维扬斯克电厂对驾车上班的三名技师造成致命袭击。
“这是一次经专门计算的联合打击，旨在对我们的能源部门造成最大损害，”泽连斯基总统宣称。
（图：Alla和我在乌克兰基辅记录了这段影像——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
然而，莫斯科之所以发动打击，是因为它被纵容。
我与阿拉·佩尔代在前线记录的、持续逾1450天的这一连串袭击，其根源正是弥漫于克里姆林宫内的有罪不罚感。
像这样的系统性袭击，已持续四年，只有在以下至少一项条件得到满足时才能被遏止：其军事成本变得无法承受；实施该行动的政权被政治上孤立；或西方存在可信的升级威胁。普京在每次试探这些界限时都未能感知到部分限制，从而不断越界。
在十二年的战争中，其中四年属于大规模战争，西方从未对莫斯科施以真正惩罚性的制裁，反而助长了该政权的核心经济——亦即其战争机器——以致该政权甚至在国际舞台上被全面恢复政治地位，受到它曾经的主要敌国所安排的红地毯和盛大阅兵等隆重接待。西方非但没有通过强化付出高昂代价抵抗该政权、为整个西方而战的国家的战略威慑来遏制该政权，反而以愚不可及的操作性限制和系统性剥夺任何反制手段的做法，削弱了其能力。
（媒体内容来源：美国国务院）
前天，在与匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班的新闻发布会上，美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥装出震惊状，质疑他的总统“尽管旨在追求和平”，为何受到如此多的批评。
唐纳德·川普如今主要要为俄罗斯的有罪不罚感负责。对北约的持续口头攻击、对普京屡屡表示理解、对泽连斯基的诋毁、公开使美国机构失去正当性、加征关税并不断威胁传统盟友，以及向地球上最恶劣的政权抛出媚眼，这些都向莫斯科发出了战略信号：西方的分裂是一扇机会之窗。这不是政治风格问题，而是将战争视作交易的手法——川普将战争描述为一笔高额代价，要通过奖励侵略方快速结束。
华盛顿采取的言辞上的中立不仅是语义上的转变，而是重大的战略转变。且是重大转向。
正如俄罗斯持异见人士加里·卡斯帕罗夫昨日所言，特朗普甚至给乌克兰用自身鲜血捍卫了12年的领土标了价，把美国变成了“香蕉共和国”。
鲁比奥所谓的“谈判和平”实质上是对侵略的稳定化。它在没有任何威慑的情况下冻结俄罗斯的占领线，同时可能使俄罗斯的存在在欧洲得到某种合法化，比如在顿巴斯设立“自由经济区”，这无异于对非法行为的常态化。
卡斯帕罗夫的尖锐评述源自一个观察：散布不稳定的超级大国会削弱其对外威慑能力。
俄罗斯不断对乌克兰民用基础设施实施无差别轰炸，旨在摧毁乌克兰的能源系统，因为它不惧怕直接升级，不受真正致命的制裁约束，并且相信时间站在它这一边。
2014年，它占领了克里米亚和顿巴斯的一部分。2022年，它对乌克兰发动了全面入侵。自2024年以来，它一直在将乌克兰的能源系统打到濒临瘫痪。每当成本没有超过收益时，升级就会继续。
（图：我在撰写本文前，在第聂伯罗所拍摄了这种照片——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
因此，近日在慕尼黑广泛讨论的“威慑”更多是一个感知问题，而不仅仅是物质能力的问题。具体到普京发动的战争，关键在于莫斯科认为华盛顿愿意做什么。
特朗普并不想恢复法律秩序，而是要“结束”他视为西半球之外的问题。对普京而言，这意味着可以加大施压以换取有利的停火条件，因为俄罗斯的责任将被淡化——现在如此，将来也如此。
昨日，特朗普再次以黑帮式的措辞要求“泽连斯基必须认真坐到谈判桌前”，以此向被攻击一方施压，迫使其在侵略者不让步的情况下做出领土让步。
这并非鲁比奥所称的和平主义，而是在协助并教唆犯罪。
（图：我在文中所述俄袭发生后不久在乌克兰第聂伯罗拍摄的照片——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
持续的停电严重损坏了我们在乌克兰西部的家中的供暖系统，而我们当时就在顿巴斯。
没有电，点着的炉火无法通过水泵循环热水。结果，系统起火，整个房子面临着烧毁的风险。幸而未被烧毁，但整个系统需要更换，房子也需要修复。管道都是歪的，墙壁被烟雾熏黑，供暖系统无法正常工作，需要彻底更换。
我们正在尽最大努力，因为Alla的父母住在那里，但这里还有许多工作要做，周围的人处境也好不到哪儿去。
我们正在重启筹款活动，感谢每一位支持我们修复被俄罗斯摧毁一切的朋友。即使是小额捐款也有帮助。我们会及时更新进展。
感谢大家，朋友们。
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