A Phantom Ukrainian Counteroffensive Is Underway
A Phantom Ukrainian Counteroffensive Is Underway
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk – Rumors have been circulating online for days – reported as «news» by much of the Italian press – about an alleged Ukrainian counteroffensive underway in the oblast’ we write from and in Zaporizhzhia. According to that account of events, the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated settlements including Ternuvate, Zelenyy Hai, Orestopil, Lukianivske, Nechaivka, and Novooleksandrivka.
You haven’t found any trace of it on these pages for a very simple reason: unlike those who wrote about it in those terms, we were present.
Ukraine didn’t «liberate» any of those villages for an equally simple reason: Russia hadn’t occupied them.
But it had declared them so. This also happened in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyj, on the opposite front: the Russian General Staff had formalized its conquest, yet there was not a single Russian soldier inside. The few remaining soldiers further north, inside Kupiansk, are now fighting for their own survival. Certainly not for the conquest of the ruins surrounding them, since they are surrounded. In that case, too, the highest Russian authorities had publicly declared the conquest of Kupiansk, only to be contradicted by the Ukrainian head of state himself, Volodymyr Zelensky, who had just recorded a selfie video message on his phone there.
The military maneuvers carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the eastern Zaporizhia Oblast’ are therefore aimed at stabilizing the situation. This was achieved primarily by clearing the territory of a few small groups of Russian raiders and saboteurs (ДРГ) who had infiltrated homes and farms. The recent Ukrainian «recapture» of Kosivtseve (a few ruins in the gray zone on the administrative border of Zaporizhzhia Oblast’ and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast’) also fits into this scenario. Although widely believed – from a distance – by several think tanks, the Russian capture of Hlushkivka must be denied, as no battle took place there.
The Russian disinformation machine simply exploited the news of the whitelist created by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in conjunction with Starlink’s top management to limit internet access via its satellite constellation to devices known to the Kyiv authorities. This exaggerated the narrative of the damage this would cause, thus shifting the burden of its own lies onto the alleged change of position of the American company (which, as we have written, only belatedly implemented decisions already made over four years ago), that is, onto other lies.
Most Italian media outlets continue to rely on the alleged «information» disseminated by pseudo-think tanks like «Deep State,» corroborating their claims simply because they often contradict those shared by the Ukrainian general staff.
This isn’t just an Italian problem, as «Die Welt» has also reported that the Russian Federation is preparing a large-scale spring offensive, pointing to Huliajpole, Pokrovsk, and the areas west of Zaporizhzhia as potential targets for Russian intensification. This observation is somewhat delayed, as Moscow has already been active in all those areas for at least two months. In all our latest dispatches from the front, we’ve emphasized the gravity of the situation in those areas since December, highlighting the chronic and primary problem of supplying Ukraine with weapons, vehicles, and equipment, while just a week ago, even «The Wall Street Journal» continuedto focus on trite issues like the lack of manpower. A problem that – as we’ve written countless times – naturally afflicts both sides after four years of war of attrition, and is felt, if anything, more acutely by Russia, given that since last December alone, Moscow has lost far more men than it can recruit from 128 countries.
As Andriy Kovalenko, director of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, emphasized, «The enemy’s plans have long been known, and the Ukrainian Defense Forces are already taking measures to counter them».
So there’s nothing new.
Unfortunately, even those who undertake the burdensome task of reporting too often continue to do so every now and then from the lobbies of Ukrainian hotels or from behind a desk in some safe country, relying on foreign agencies or reading occasional posts by supposed OSINT analysts who, in turn, rely on the presence of others – namely milbloggersand soldiers – who are certainly more war-weary than them, calling this «presence on the field».
The ongoing blackouts severely damaged our house’s heating system in Western Ukraine while we were in the Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldn’t circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesn’t work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Alla’s parents live there, but there’s still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
We’re renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. We’ll keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, friends
一场幻影般的乌克兰反攻正在进行
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道
帕夫洛赫拉德，第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克 —— 过去几天网络上流传着有关我们所写地区以及顿涅茨克以西的扎波罗热州有一场所谓乌克兰反攻的谣言——很多意大利媒体把这些谣言当作“新闻”报道。按照那些报道的说法，乌克兰武装部队解放了包括特尔努瓦特、泽列尼·海伊、奥雷斯托皮尔、卢基亚尼夫斯克、涅恰伊夫卡和诺沃奥列克桑德里夫卡在内的定居点。
你在本栏内找不到此事件的任何痕迹，原因很简单：与那些用那种措辞报道的人不同，我们当时在现场。
同样也有一个同样简单的原因表明乌克兰并未「解放」这些村庄：俄罗斯并未占领它们。
乌克兰并没有“解放”这些村庄，原因同样简单：俄罗斯根本没有占领它们。
但俄罗斯宣称占领了它们。这种情况在对面战线的库皮扬斯克-武兹洛维伊也发生过：俄总参谋部曾正式宣布其被占领，但那里却连一名俄军士兵都没有。更北的库皮扬斯克城内仅存的少数士兵现在正为自身生存而战。显然，他们并不是为了征服周围的废墟而战，因为他们已被包围。当时，俄方最高层公开宣布已占领库皮扬斯克，随后乌克兰国家元首弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基亲自在那里用手机录制了一个自拍视频予以反驳。
（图：我在第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州乌克兰防线为本文报道——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
因此，乌克兰武装部队在扎波罗热州东部所实施的军事机动，旨在稳定局势。主要通过清除渗入民居和农庄的少数俄方突袭和破坏小组（ДРГ）来实现。最近乌克兰“收复”的科西夫采耶夫（位于扎波罗热州与第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州行政边界的灰色地带的几处废墟）也属于这一情形。尽管一些智库从远程普遍相信俄罗斯已占领格鲁什基夫卡并不是事实，因为那儿并未发生战斗。
俄方的虚假信息机器利用了乌克兰国防部与Starlink高层共同制定的白名单消息，即通过其卫星星座将互联网接入限制在基辅当局已知的设备上。它们夸大了这一做法会造成的损害，把其自身谎言的责任归咎于所谓美国公司立场的改变（正如我们所写，该公司只是延迟地执行了四年前已作出的决定），换言之，又是另一番谎言。
（图片来源：Die Welt）
多数意大利媒体仍依赖诸如“Deep State”等伪智库传播的所谓“信息”，仅因这些说法常与乌克兰总参谋部发布的信息相矛盾便予以证实。
这不仅是意大利的问题，《世界报》（Die Welt）也报道说，俄联邦正准备一场大规模春季攻势，指向胡利亚波列、波克羅夫斯克以及扎波罗热以西地区作为俄方可能加强行动的目标。这样的观察多少有些滞后，因为莫斯科在这些地区至少已经活动了两个月以上。在我们最近所有的前线报道中，自十二月以来我们就不断强调这些地区形势的严重性，突出问题的根本在于向乌克兰供给武器、车辆和装备的长期不足；而就在一周前，连《华尔街日报》仍在关注诸如人员不足等陈词滥调的问题。正如我们无数次所写，经过四年的消耗战，这一问题自然困扰双方，而如果有差别的话，俄罗斯感受得更为强烈，因为仅自去年十二月以来，莫斯科损失的人数远超其能从128个国家招募的数量。
（图片来源：MilitaryNewsUA）
正如乌克兰国家安全与国防委员会反虚假信息中心主任安德里·科瓦连科所强调的，“敌人的计划早已为人所知，乌克兰防御部队已经采取措施予以对抗”。
所以并无新意。
不幸的是，甚至那些肩负繁重报道任务的人，仍常常在乌克兰酒店的大堂或某个安全国家的书桌后报道，依赖于外国通讯社或偶读一些所谓OSINT分析人士的帖文，而这些人反过来又依赖他人的存在——即军事博主和士兵——他们显然比这些分析者更疲惫于战争，但却被称为“现场存在”。
（图：我那双磨破的靴子——自战争开始以来已磨破的第八或第九双——装有可在顿巴斯冰面上咬住的支撑装置——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
持续的停电严重损坏了我们在乌克兰西部的家中的供暖系统，而我们当时就在顿巴斯。
没有电，点着的炉火无法通过水泵循环热水。结果，系统起火，整个房子面临着烧毁的风险。幸而未被烧毁，但整个系统需要更换，房子也需要修复。管道都是歪的，墙壁被烟雾熏黑，供暖系统无法正常工作，需要彻底更换。
我们正在尽最大努力，因为Alla的父母住在那里，但这里还有许多工作要做，周围的人处境也好不到哪儿去。
我们正在重启筹款活动，感谢每一位支持我们修复被俄罗斯摧毁一切的朋友。即使是小额捐款也有帮助。我们会及时更新进展。
感谢大家，朋友们。
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