A False Truce, According To Script
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Chernihiv — In the time and manner we foreshadowed last Saturday in these pages, the so-called “energy truce” touted by the current American administration as a success of its (alleged) diplomacy has turned out to be a death trap for the Ukrainian energy system, which after last night’s brutal attack is now on the verge of collapse. As we described, the farce of the pause served Moscow’s purpose of concentrating a record number of launchers into a single strike. Enough to saturate and then breach Ukrainian defenses at the most opportune moment.
Moscow has always used cold weather as a strategic factor. By suspending ballistic strikes just before the peak of the Arctic freeze currently gripping Ukrainian cities, the Russians were able to redirect other vectors toward Ukrainian logistics and a large number of civilian targets, only to then deliver the decisive blow when the cold factor would have multiplied the damage.
Last night, temperatures dropped to almost 30 degrees below zero. The cold was so bitter that it even froze the frost on the windows of the car we were traveling in.
Russia launched a record number of ballistic missiles — 71 — along with 450 decoys and long-range drones, targeting energy targets. The attacks primarily hit Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Vinnytsia. Thermoelectric power plants (TECs) and Thermal Energy Storage (TESs) were targeted with macabre precision, along with residential buildings and other civilian targets, a hallmark of Russian terrorism. Attentive readers will recall that last week, we also explained what Ukraine really needs to address the enormous energy crisis caused by these attacks, listing innovative, modern solutions that industrialized and technologically advanced countries like the G7 should quickly adopt rather than resorting to the generic shipment of generators as a morale boost.
The Russian Federation struck precisely those TEC and TES missiles that require assistance, as we indicated.
The damage is significant. Even more worrying is that of the 71 ballistic missiles fired by the Russians, Ukrainian defenses managed to shoot down only 38. A positive result, considering that until a few days ago those same defenses lacked interceptors for that type of threat, but not entirely satisfactory because it indicates the disengagement of Kyiv’s partners. Ballistic threats can be neutralized only by Patriot and Samp/T. The Pac-3 interceptors for the former were delivered by the US only a few days ago, after months of waiting, despite several European countries having paid for them. The Aster counterparts for the latter were confirmed in considerable quantities by President Macron at the same time. And thanks again to him for doing so, because, despite MBDA having quintupled production, very few of those precious missiles are seen here.
On the coldest night, the Russian Federation was thus able to deliver the heaviest blow to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
More than 1,100 buildings in the Darnytsia and Dnipro districts of Kyiv — where we have documented, including on video, all our latest reports — were left without heating after the somersaults of this country’s best technicians and defenders.
This should lead to a reflection on those countries that — in the heat of Russian gas, which they still purchase in record quantities — continue to finance the rashist war machine. It should give pause to those leaders who refuse to listen to (and perhaps don’t even establish) technical commissions to evaluate the best solutions to the energy crisis caused by a regime they keep afloat, even economically, preferring to clear their consciences with populist choices worthy of charities but not of countries like the G7. It should open the eyes of those analysts who persist in looking to Washington with expectation, while Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are the two names furthest from the word “peace.”
A term now overused, even in perspective, to the point of replacing the concept of victory with that of surrender.
Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky explained that the Russians launched one and a half times as many missiles as they had before the first round of “negotiations” in Abu Dhabi. Continuing to push in that direction, squeezing Ukraine to the bone, is profoundly wrong.
As the leader of the Resistance in this country noted, no one gave us anything with those choices. They only postponed the attack, making it stronger.
Describing it in more detail than we already did before it took place would be a mere exercise in reporting.
What we need today is reflection.
The ongoing blackouts severely damaged our house's heating system in Western Ukraine while we were in the Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldn’t circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesn’t work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Alla’s parents live there, but there’s still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
We’re renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. We’ll keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, friends
按剧本上演的假停火
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道
切尔尼希夫 — 正如我们上周六在本栏预言的那样，由现任美国政府吹捧为其（所谓）外交成果的“能源停火”，已证明是对乌克兰能源系统的死亡陷阱。遭遇昨夜那场残酷的袭击后，该系统现已岌岌可危，濒临崩溃。如我们所述，这场停顿的闹剧恰好符合莫斯科的意图：将创纪录数量的发射装置集中用于单次打击，足以在最有利的时机压倒并突破乌克兰的防御。
莫斯科历来将严寒作为战略因素。就在当前笼罩乌克兰城市的北极寒潮达到顶峰之前暂停弹道打击，俄方得以把其他攻击重新指向乌克兰的后勤与大量平民目标，待寒冷因素会使破坏成倍放大时再予以致命一击。
昨夜，气温降至接近零下30摄氏度，寒冷凛冽，甚至把我们乘坐车辆车窗上的霜冻都冻住了。
（图片来自：乌克兰武装部队）
俄方向能源目标发射了创纪录数量的弹道导弹：71枚，并伴随450枚诱饵弹及远程无人机。袭击主要针对第聂伯、哈尔科夫、基辅、敖德萨、苏梅与文尼察。火力以惊人的精确度针对热电厂（TEC）和蓄热装置（TES），同时袭击住宅楼及其他民用目标，这正是俄国恐怖主义的标志。细心的读者还记得，上周我们也曾说明，乌克兰应对这些袭击造成的巨大能源危机的真正需求，并列举了工业化、技术先进国家如七国集团应迅速采用的创新现代解决方案，而不是仅仅运送发电机以起到所谓鼓舞士气的笼统作用。
正如我们所指出的，俄联邦精准打击了那些亟需援助的火电厂与热能储存设施。
（图：摄于我们车辆的乘客侧，当时我们从基辅以北、前往切尔尼希夫途中。俄联邦再次攻击乌克兰能源基础设施——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
（图：车内玻璃上的霜冻。左侧是我用手指划出的一些划痕——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
（图：我们车内仪表盘显示的外界温度——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
损坏十分严重。更令人担忧的是，在俄方发射的71枚弹道导弹中，乌克兰防空仅拦截了38枚。考虑到就在数日前，这类防御还缺乏拦截器，这已是一个积极成果；但这仍不尽如人意，因为它暴露出基辅伙伴的脱节。弹道威胁只能由爱国者和Samp/T系统拦截。前者的PAC?3拦截弹在等待数月后、几天前才由美国交付，尽管已有数个欧洲国家为此买单。后者的Aster拦截弹也在同期由马克龙总统证实会大量提供。再次感谢他的承诺，尽管MBDA已将产量提高五倍，这些珍贵导弹在本地仍寥寥可见。
在最寒冷的夜晚，俄联邦由此得以对乌克兰能源基础设施给予最沉重的一击。
基辅達爾尼察（Darnytsia）与第聂伯（Dnipro）区我们在此区的最新报道包括视频记录——有超过1,100栋建筑在我国顶尖技术人员和防卫者作出一系列应对翻转之后，仍处于无供暖状态。
基辅达尔尼察区和第聂伯区——我们在此区现场记录了所有最新报道，包括视频——有超过1100栋建筑在该国最优秀的技术人员与防卫者尽力抢修后仍处于无供暖状态。
（图表来源：卫报，数据来源：能源与清洁空气研究中心，数据依据Kpler、欧盟统计局与ENTSOG）
这应当引发对那些国家的反思：在仍以创纪录数量购买俄罗斯天然气的热衷之下，它们继续资助“俄斯特主义”战争机器。那些拒绝听取（甚至可能根本未设立）技术委员会来评估由其所维持、甚至经济上支持的政权所引发的能源危机的最佳解决方案的领导人，也应当为此停下脚步。他们宁可以可供慈善机构而非七国集团国家的民粹式选择来安抚自己的良知。它应当让那些仍然对华盛顿怀有期待的分析人士觉醒，因为唐纳德·川普与弗拉基米尔·普京，是距离“和平”最为遥远的两个人。
“和平”这一词如今已被过度使用，甚至在愿景上被滥用，以至于用“投降”一词替代了“胜利”的概念。
（图：我在撰写本文数小时前于基辅拍摄。已是傍晚，显而易见整个居民区都没有供电——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
昨日，弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示，俄方发射的导弹数量是阿布扎比首次“谈判”之前的1.5倍。继续朝那个方向施压，将乌克兰压榨至骨髓，是极其错误的。
正如该国抵抗运动的领导人所指出的，那些选择并未给我们带来任何好处。它们只是推迟了袭击，并使之更为猛烈。
在事件发生前我们已作出描述，再去更详细地叙述不过是纯粹的报道练习。
如今我们需要的是反思。
（图：我在乌克兰切尔尼希夫北部一座小村庄，于撰文前数拍摄——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
持续的停电严重损坏了我们在乌克兰西部的家中的供暖系统，而我们当时就在顿巴斯。
没有电，点着的炉火无法通过水泵循环热水。结果，系统起火，整个房子面临着烧毁的风险。幸而未被烧毁，但整个系统需要更换，房子也需要修复。管道都是歪的，墙壁被烟雾熏黑，供暖系统无法正常工作，需要彻底更换。
我们正在尽最大努力，因为Alla的父母住在那里，但这里还有许多工作要做，周围的人处境也好不到哪儿去。
我们正在重启筹款活动，感谢每一位支持我们修复被俄罗斯摧毁一切的朋友。即使是小额捐款也有帮助。我们会及时更新进展。
感谢大家，朋友们。
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