GDPNow 从1/29号的5.4% 下修至 1/26的4.2%， . 这个数据变动很快，真正可信的还要等。

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?

 

Latest estimate: 4.2 percent — January 29, 2026

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on January 29, down from 5.4 percent on January 26. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 7.1 percent was more than offset by decreases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.2 percent to 3.1 percent and the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth from 1.88 percentage points to 0.65 percentage points.