Europeanizing Anti-ballistic Defense
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Ovruch – Hours after his indictment of Europe at the Davos meeting, President Volodymyr Zelensky presented the American promise of additional PAC-3 Patriot interceptors as a success: «I spoke with President Trump and received – I won’t say how many – PAC-3 missiles for Patriot».
First, it should be noted that it was Kyiv’s allies (mostly European) who listened to its needs by paying for those missiles, while Donald Trump merely gave his imprimatur, once again dictating (exorbitant) prices and (biblical) timeframes for those deliveries. Far from being a victory, that message instead confirmed a toxic relationship.
Ukrainian defenses against ballistic threats remain strictly dependent on Washington’s whims, as do European ones, even though the EU has the technologies and tools to do without them. As I’ve already explained, using the practical example of the Ukrainian POPO (anti-aircraft missile), the SAMP/T and Patriot share the same conceptual architecture: multifunctional phased array radar, command and control chain, launchers, and hit-to-kill interception. After the intense and productive rewriting of the engagement software by Ukrainian engineers – who adapted the parameters for target discrimination, trajectory prediction, and interception time window – both Patriot and SAMP/T are capable of neutralizing even so-called “hypersonic” ballistic threats. Therefore, even without American missiles, the EU and Ukraine could theoretically manage anti-ballistic air defense with European SAMP/T systems.
Since 2022, MBDA (with Eurosam) has increased production of Aster 30 interceptors. This capacity has enabled it to deliver missile volumes approximately five times higher than those planned for 2025. However, to meet the demands of modern warfare in the face of a high-intensity conflict like the one currently underway and to create stockpiles for a potentially more serious conflict against the same enemy, a reconversion of European industry would be necessary, as is already happening with Renault and some German car manufacturers.
Production times have already been reduced and will be further reduced in 2026, but a sensible choice for Ukraine would be to push for joint ventures like the one already underway with Rheinmetall, making its production chain available with a view to full integration with the EU. The SAMP/T is a European pillar, but most of the hundreds of missiles produced each year now go to the United Kingdom, France, and Italy.
Kyiv’s accession to the EU would make it easier for Ukrainian industry to overcome production constraints related to licenses and permits.
Raising awareness of this issue among the Davos audience from a Ukrainian perspective would certainly have been a proactive approach, more compatible with the principles of that meeting. Sustaining American invective against the EU and limiting success to the latest dose of American missiles (sought and financed by the EU) benefits neither Kyiv nor Brussels.
A paradigm shift is needed.
The rest of Ukraine’s best anti-aircraft defense is already European.
This is by no means a small matter and should be emphasized. The system that works best against cruise missiles and drones is the Iris-T, a European product. Its missiles are derived from AAMs and offer extremely high precision at a lower cost than the Asters. This is why Zelensky agreed just the day before yesterday to the delivery of 18 complete batteries, including launchers and interceptors.
The NASAMs can also survive the American withdrawal because it integrates with European radars and has a modular architecture. Crotale and Camm-ER are other highly credible European solutions that free the SAMP/T from uses other than ballistic threats. Not to mention recent laser systems like the DragonFire, which are British.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense is already essentially European and functions without American missiles.
However, when it comes to ballistic threats, a different approach is needed that raises awareness of the importance of alternatives like the SAMP/T.
With concrete and constructive proposals, not generic invectives. Only by strengthening these options and avoiding creating further dependence on the United States can a solution be found. While the desire to smooth things over to some extent with the Americans so they can ensure a healthy dose of PAC-3 is understandable, it is imperative to push for options that already exist and must be implemented in the Ukrainian production chain as part of the European one.
Kyiv must not be the end customer but an important element of the industrial chain.
These are issues that should be addressed in the economic sphere, addressing audiences like Davos.
The conclusion is therefore operational, not just ideological: it makes sense to kiss the American slipper, but only by shifting the center of gravity toward the only strategic solution: Europeanizing anti-ballistic defense with SAMP/T and Aster, including Ukraine in the industrial chain as part of the solution, not as a passive recipient.
Some time ago, I noted that one of Zelensky’s greatest achievements was treating Ukraine’s European integration as a strategic asset in its own right. It was a decisive choice for his country’s survival and future. Now is the time for Brussels to follow suit, viewing Kyiv’s accelerated entry into the EU as an opportunity to quickly reduce its dependence on Washington.
The continuous blackouts severely damaged the heating system of our house in Western Ukraine while we were here in Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldn’t circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesn’t work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Alla’s parents live there, but there’s still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
We’re renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins to help us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. We’ll keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, friends
欧洲化反弹道防御
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道
奥夫鲁奇——在达沃斯会议上对欧洲提出指责数小时后，泽连斯基总统将美国承诺提供额外PAC-3爱国者拦截导弹视为一项胜利：“我与特朗普总统通话并收到了——我不说具体数量——爱国者的PAC-3导弹。”
首先应指出的是，正是基辅的盟友（主要是欧洲国家）倾听了其需求为这些导弹买了单，而唐纳德·川普只不过盖章表示了许可，同时再次强加（高得离谱的）价格和（极其漫长的）交付时间表。此举非但不能算作胜利，反而证实了一种有毒的依赖关系。
（图：SAMP/T——图片来源：Defense Express）
乌克兰对弹道威胁的防御依然严格依赖华盛顿的突发善心惠，欧洲亦然，尽管欧盟拥有摆脱这种依赖的技术和工具。正如我通过乌克兰POPO（防空导弹）的实际案例所做的解释，SAMP/T与爱国者在概念架构上是相同的：多功能相控阵雷达、指挥控制链、发射器和“撞击杀伤”拦截方式。经过乌克兰工程师对拦截软件的密集且富有成效的重写——他们调整了目标判别、轨迹预测和拦截时间窗等参数——爱国者和SAMP/T均能对所谓“高超音速”弹道威胁实施有效拦截。因此，即便没有美国导弹，欧盟与乌克兰理论上也能使用欧洲的SAMP/T系统承担反弹道防空任务。
自2022年以来，MBDA（与Eurosam合作）已提高了Aster 30拦截弹的产量。这一产能使其交付量约为原计划2025年水平的五倍。然而，为了应对当前这种的高强度冲突的现代战争的需求，，并为可能与同一敌人的更严重的冲突建立库存，必须对欧洲工业进行改造，正如雷诺与部分德国汽车制造商已在做的那样。
生产时间已经被缩短，并将在2026年进一步减少，但对乌克兰而言，明智的选择是推动诸如正在与莱茵金属进行的合资项目，让其生产链参与进来，以期与欧盟实现完全整合。SAMP/T是欧洲的一根支柱，但目前每年生产的数百枚导弹大多流向英国、法国和意大利。
基辅加入欧盟将有助于乌克兰工业更易解决与许可与审批相关的生产限制。
从乌克兰角度在达沃斯向与会者提高对此问题的认识，肯定是一种更积极的做法，与该会议的宗旨更为契合。维持针对欧盟的美式指责，并将成果局限于最新一批（由欧盟寻找并资助的）美国导弹，对基辅与布鲁塞尔均无益。
需要范式转变。
（图：Iris-T——图片来源：Unian）
乌克兰其余的最佳防空体系已经是欧洲的。
这绝非小事，值得强调。对巡航导弹和无人机最有效的系统是Iris-T，这是一款欧洲产品。其导弹源自空对空导弹（AAM），在成本低于Aster的同时提供极高精度。这也是泽连斯基前天同意交付18套完整电池（含发射器与拦截弹）的原因。
（图：NASAM——图片来源：Kongsberg）
NASAM在美国撤离的情况下也能继续运作，因为它可与欧洲雷达整合并具有模块化架构。Crotale与CAMM-ER是其他同样可靠的欧洲解决方案，可将SAMP/T从非弹道威胁任务中解放出来。更不用说近期的像英国激光系统DragonFire之类的。
（图：Crotale——图片来源：Defense Express）
乌克兰的防空体系本质上已是欧洲化的，并能在没有美国导弹的情况下运作。
然而，对于弹道威胁，需要采取不同的方法，要提升对诸如SAMP/T等替代方案重要性的认识。
需提出具体且建设性的建议，而非笼统的指责。只有强化这些选项并避免进一步依赖美国，才能找到解决之道。尽管为了争取足够的PAC-3与美国保持一定的缓和可以理解，但更有必要推动那些已存在且必须把乌克兰生产链被纳入欧洲整体一部分的方案。
基辅不应只是最终客户，而应成为工业链中的重要环节。
这些问题应在经济层面上解决，面向像达沃斯这样受众。
（图：CAMM-ER——图片来源：MBDA）
结论因此是务实的，而不仅仅是意识形态的：亲美讨好可以有，但必须把重心转向唯一的战略解决方案：用SAMP/T与Aster实现反弹道防御的欧洲化，将乌克兰纳入工业链，作为解决方案的一部分，而非被动的接收方。
前些时候，我曾指出泽连斯基的一项重大成就是将乌克兰的欧洲一体化视为一项独立的战略资产。这对其国家的生存与未来是一个决定性的选择。如今正是布鲁塞尔追随其步伐的时候，应把基辅加速加入欧盟视为快速减少对华盛顿依赖的机会。
（图：本文作者在乌克兰奥夫鲁奇为此文通讯拍摄的照片 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
～～～
持续的停电严重损坏了我们在乌克兰西部的家中的供暖系统，而我们当时就在顿巴斯。
没有电，点着的炉火无法通过水泵循环热水。结果，系统起火，整个房子面临着烧毁的风险。幸而未被烧毁，但整个系统需要更换，房子也需要修复。管道都是歪的，墙壁被烟雾熏黑，供暖系统无法正常工作，需要彻底更换。
我们正在尽最大努力，因为Alla的父母住在那里，但这里还有许多工作要做，周围的人处境也好不到哪儿去。
我们正在重启筹款活动，感谢每一位支持我们修复被俄罗斯摧毁一切的朋友。即使是小额捐款也有帮助。我们会及时更新进展。
感谢大家，朋友们。
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