Prediction markets currently place the likelihood of Donald Trump not finishing a full four-year term (i.e., being out of office before 2029) at approximately
17%. Other, more specific, event contracts place the probability of him leaving office by the end of 2025 at under 10%.
The potential reasons for him not completing his term, as suggested by various analyses and betting markets, include:
- Health and Age: At 78 years old when sworn in for his second term, age and health are significant factors considered by bookmakers and analysts as potential reasons he might not complete the full four years.
- Resignation: While not a common speculation, some event contracts account for the possibility of resignation due to health or other personal reasons.
- Impeachment/Removal from Office: Though a high bar to meet, the President can be removed from office through the impeachment process.
- Legal Challenges/Political Climate: Trump faces ongoing legal scrutiny and political challenges. While numerous legal challenges to his eligibility to be on the ballot have been resolved, other issues, such as potential government shutdowns, policy disputes, and various ongoing investigations, remain and could theoretically impact his presidency in unforeseen ways.
It is important to note that these figures are based on speculation and prediction markets, not definitive legal or political certainties.
