Independent analysis and evidence from international observers indicate that Nicolás Maduro maintained power following the July 2024 presidential election through a combination of systematic electoral manipulation and refusal to recognize a landslide defeat.
2024 Election Manipulation
According to extensive reporting and independent audits, the 2024 election was "unquestionably stolen" through the following methods:
- Fabricated Official Results: The National Electoral Council (CNE), controlled by Maduro loyalists, declared him the winner with 51% of the vote without publishing disaggregated, precinct-level data to support this claim.
- Documented Opposition Victory: The opposition, led by Edmundo González and María Corina Machado, collected and published over 80% of the physical tally sheets (actas) from voting machines. Independent reviews by The Associated Press, the Carter Center, and academic experts confirmed these sheets were authentic and showed González winning approximately 67% to Maduro's 30%.
- Judicial Certification: Maduro asked the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), also filled with his allies, to "audit" the results. The court certified his victory in August 2024, despite the CNE's continued failure to release public records.
- Pre-election Interference: Before the vote, the regime banned major opposition figures like María Corina Machado from running and restricted the ability of millions of Venezuelans living abroad to register.
Historical Tactics
The Maduro regime has a history of using several "autocratic insurance" strategies to stay in power:
- Military Loyalty: Maduro secured the support of the armed forces through lucrative business opportunities, high-level government appointments, and "coup-proofing" via surveillance and purges.
- Voter Coercion: The regime utilized the "1x10" mobilization system, pressuring public employees and social program beneficiaries to bring ten other voters to the polls, often tracking them through government-issued ID apps.
- Sham Legislatures: Following major opposition victories (such as the 2015 legislative elections), Maduro used the TSJ to strip the National Assembly of its power and created a parallel, loyalist "Constituent National Assembly" in 2017.
