Key Takeaways
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov effectively rejected seven points of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan on December 11, including the original plan’s points on territorial swaps based on the line of contact and the provision of reliable security guarantees for Ukraine.
- Lavrov’s December 11 statements indicate that the Kremlin is unwilling to accept the original 28-point peace plan but that Russia will instead demand further modifications should Ukraine agree to it.
- Lavrov’s effective rejection of key elements of the 28-point peace plan is consistent with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s November 27 statement that the 28-point plan could be the basis for future negotiations, but not a final agreement in itself.
- Senior Kremlin officials, including Putin, have similarly rejected key points of the 28-point plan in recent weeks.
- The Kremlin claimed that Russian forces seized Siversk as part of the Kremlin’s intensified cognitive warfare effort that seeks to portray Ukraine’s frontline as on the verge of collapse, and Russian battlefield victory as inevitable. Neither is true, and the Russian seizure of Siversk is unconfirmed as of December 11.
- The Kremlin is attempting to portray the claimed fall of Siversk as the start of the battle for Slovyansk – a battle the Kremlin has not set conditions on the ground to begin.
- Putin’s December 11 meeting is part of a pattern of senior Russian officials aggrandizing claimed battlefield victories in the past several weeks to create the false perception that the frontlines are collapsing to push the West and Ukraine to capitulate to Russia’s demands. ISW continues to assess that the frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse.
- Russian forces are only making tactical gains across most of the theater.
- Ukrainian forces struck an oil platform in the Caspian Sea for the first time and struck other Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure on the night of December 10 to 11.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk.
