Japan’s Yonaguni arming up for a Taiwan war with China

https://asiatimes.com/2025/11/japans-yonaguni-arming-up-for-a-taiwan-war-with-china/

US fortifying Japan’s Yonaguni island outpost as new forward edge against China–a move of questionable strategic value

Summary as follows if you don't have time to read the entire article:

1. Strategic Importance of Yonaguni

a. Yonaguni is Japan's westernmost island, located only about 112 km from Taiwan

b. Because of its location, its playing an increasingly important role in US-Japan military strategy under the "First Island Chain" concept

c. The island has runways, port infrastructure and rader/sensor capabilities, making it valuabel for forward operations, surveillance, and staging

2. US-Japan Military Buildup

a. The US Marines have increased activity on Yonaguni: they have conducted logistics missions, bringing in medical supplies, disaster-response gear, and establishing a forward arming and refueling point(FARP)

b. CH-53E heavy-lift helicopters have operated there, which is significant given the island's remote location

c. The article suggests that while humanitarian assistance is the stated relationale, these deployments have clear strategic implications for regional deterrence

3. Missile Deployment Plans

a. There is speculation and strategic planning to deploy missle systems on Yonaguni, particularly smaller, shorter range system rather than large cruise missile due to the island's limited infrastructure

b. One candidate system is the NMESIS, which has a range ~185km that could cover the Miyako Strait and parts of northern Taiwan

c. Such missile deployments would enhance the ability to monitor and potentially interdict Chinese naval movements, especially through key chokepoints

4. Sensor Network Role

a. Yonaguni is already part of a US-Japan underwater sensor network(sometimes called the "Fish Hook" network), which is critical for detecting and tracking submarines in the region

b. Submarines could be a major tool for China; deploying sensors on Yonaguni helps allies counter that threat

5. Vulnerabilities and Risks

a. The island's small size and limited infrastructure make it hard to suppport very large military systems

b. There are concerns about its defensibility

c. The island has few hardended shalters, so in a real conflict, its runways and facilities could be very vulnerable to air or missile attack

d. If it surnways are knocked out, it would greatly limit Japan and US ability to launch or recover aircraft from there.

6. Strategic Trade-off

a. Yonaguni is a "double-edged sward": while its forward position offers strong strategic advantages(surveillance, missile coverage, staging), its also exposed and could become a liability in a conflict.

b. Its loss or neutralization early in a conflict could significantly weakend the broader defensive posture of the First Island Chain.