Encircled Reality
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Kyiv – In the past few hours, top Russian and Ukrainian officials have issued diametrically opposed statements regarding the situation at the front.
In a brief statement reiterated by Russian television and Kremlin-aligned media (including foreign outlets, primarily in Italy) Vladimir Putin called for the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, claiming they are encircled. He urged Ukrainian and foreign media representatives – whom his soldiers continue to barbarously massacre – to «take advantage of a temporary lull in the bombardment to enter both sectors and see with their own eyes what is happening.»
Calling these claims absurd, the spokesperson for the СХ?Д (East) military group confirmed that several Russian attack groups had managed to infiltrate the southern sector of Pokrovsk in the manner I described yesterday on these pages, reiterating that «there is no enemy in Myrnohrad». This essentially contradicts the Russian dictator’s claims because, given the current situation on the ground, the idea of trapping the Ukrainian resistance in the Pokrovsk pocket without capturing Myrnohrad is simply absurd. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces has, however, revealed plans by which the Russian generals aim to do something similar – pushing far enough north of those Ukrainian cities with a force of 27,000 soldiers, around 100 tanks, at least 260 other armored vehicles, and up to 160 guns and mortars to encircle both.
All reliable sources and those I’m in contact with confirm that the Russians have managed to infiltrate several dozen saboteurs southwest of Pokrovskand that fighting is raging among the ruins of that sector with such intensity that even the central portions of the city are crumbling. In about thirty hours, Ukrainian soldiers neutralized roughly a hundred occupants by blasting them with drones, including in the basements of buildings. Other types of drones are being used to supply the Ukrainian resistance, completely bypassing those roads that the Russians have now reduced to grey zones.
The vague idea of ??encirclement that Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov has instead decided to give for sure to Putin consists in the fact that the roads used to transport Ukrainian men and vehicles to Pokrovsk would be at risk of being cut off if his soldiers continued to press and the Ukrainians did not receive further support for their resistance.
Russian officials themselves deny that such a scenario is imminent. The rashist channel “За ВДВ” explained, through anonymous testimonies from some officers, that «what Gerasimov told Putin is false» and a comparison of the maps they drew themselves with those shown by the Russian Chief of Staff to the dictator revealed significant discrepancies.
Risking significant consequences for such assessments, analysts on that same channel also reminded their Russian readers that between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, there are 31 Ukrainian battalions, and 18 in Kupiansk alone. That means there are roughly 10,000 men in that sector alone. To believe a scenario similar to the one Putin envisioned, the Russians would already have to have surrounded ten thousand Ukrainians, but only on that side, because on the Pokrovsk side, there are at least twice that number.
As Russian officials themselves claim, this is patently false.
As was the case in Kursk, reality still lags behind words, but if the West doesn’t decide to provide adequate support to the Ukrainian resistance soon, things could become very bad.
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包围下的真相
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
来自乌克兰的现场报道
基辅——在过去的几个小时里，俄罗斯和乌克兰高级官员就前线局势发表了截然相反的声明。
在俄罗斯电视台和克里姆林宫渗透的媒体（包括主要在意大利的外国媒体）发布的一份简短地声明中，弗拉基米尔·普京再次呼吁在波克罗夫斯克和库皮扬斯克的乌克兰士兵投降，声称他们已被包围。他还敦促乌克兰和外国媒体代表——他的士兵一直野蛮地屠杀他们——“利用暂时的轰炸间隙进入这两个地区，亲眼看看发生了什么。”
СХ?Д（东方）军事组织发言人称这些说法是荒谬的，他还确认几个俄罗斯突击队已经设法以我昨天在本刊上描述的方式渗透到波克罗夫斯克的南部地区，并重申“米尔诺格勒没有敌人”。这实际上反驳了这位俄罗斯独裁者的说法，因为鉴于地面的实际情况，在不拿下米尔诺格勒的情况下，就将乌克兰抵抗者围困在波克罗夫斯克口袋里的想法简直是荒谬的。然而，乌克兰空降部队第7快速反应军已经披露了俄罗斯将军计划采取的类似行动——派遣2.7万名士兵、约100辆坦克、至少260辆其他装甲车以及多达160门火炮和迫击炮，向那些乌克兰城市以北推进，以包围这两个城市。
（图：乌克兰第7空降旅披露了俄军计划）
所有可靠的消息来源以及与我联系的人都证实，俄罗斯人已经设法在波克罗夫斯克西南部渗透了几十名破坏分子，战斗正在该地区的废墟中激烈进行，甚至城市的中心部分也在沦陷。在大约 30 个小时内，乌克兰士兵通过无人机炸毁了大约 100 名入侵者，包括建筑物地下室里的。其他类型的无人机被用来为乌克兰抵抗力量提供补给，完全绕过了那些已经被俄罗斯人变成灰色地带的道路。
（图：Alla在乌克兰波姆罗夫斯基区报道 – 版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
俄罗斯总参谋长瓦列里·格拉西莫夫决定向普京报告含糊的包围战况，是源于他相信，如果他的士兵继续施压并且乌军反抗得不到进一步的支援，那么用于向波克罗夫斯克运送乌克兰士兵和车辆的道路将面临被切断的风险。
（图：我在这张地图上用红色描出了俄军试图切断的波克罗夫斯克和米尔诺格勒的道路——地图来源：OpenStreetMap）
然而，俄罗斯官员自己否认这种情况迫在眉睫。 “За ВДВ”频道通过一些官员的匿名证词解释说，“格拉西莫夫告诉普京的是错误的”，将他们自己绘制的地图与俄罗斯总参谋长向独裁者展示的地图的比较，揭示了重大的差异。
（图：За ВДВ展示的地图）
冒着对此类评估承担重大后果的风险，该频道上的分析师还提醒他们的俄罗斯读者，波克罗夫斯克和米尔诺格勒之间有 31 个乌克兰营，库皮扬斯克有 18 个。这意味着仅在该地区就有大约 1万乌军。要相信类似于普京设想的情况，俄军必须已经包围了大约一万名乌军，而且仅仅是在那一侧，因为在波克罗夫斯克一侧，乌军至少是这个数字的两倍。
正如俄罗斯官员自己所声称的那样，这是公然的谎言。
（图：“За ВДВ”分析师的评估）
正如发生在库尔斯克的情况一样，现实仍然落后于言语，但如果西方不尽快决定为乌克兰抵抗力量提供充分的支持，情况可能会变得非常糟糕。
（图：我在意大利报纸“La Ragione”上的专栏—版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
