Ukraine Targets the Core of Russia’s Terror Regime
By: Giorgio Provinciali
原文链接：
Live from Ukraine
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Kyiv — As part of Operation Deep Strike, Ukrainian drones hit the Russian Bashnafta-UNPZ refinery in Ufa, located 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine in the Republic of Bashkortostan. This is the third such deep strike carried out recently, and its complete success highlights two key points: with its self-produced weapons, Ukraine can reach any target in enemy territory; attacking the Russian supply chain in this way results in faster and more precise effects than years of broad sanctions.
Drones from the “Alpha” Special Operations Center of the Ukrainian Special Services have once again targeted and precisely struck the crude oil refining tower, the core of the ELOU-AVT-6 plant, just as they did a few days earlier in the attack on the Afipsky refinery in the Krasnodar Territory of Russia and again when they halted the operation of tower number 1 at the “Tingovatovo” oil pumping station in Chuvashia, which is another 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine.
This had immediate repercussions on oil production capacity and, consequently, on Russia’s wartime economy. By hitting 19 out of 38 refineries, the Ukrainians not only took half of those facilities offline but also reduced Russian refining capacity by more than 20%. Back in September, when the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated Russian refined oil exports to be at their lowest level in the last decade (excluding April 2020), Moscow had imposed a ban on gasoline exports and limits on diesel retailers until the end of 2025. To cover the shortfall caused by the Ukrainian attacks, the Russian Federation is now forced to increase imports from countries like Belarus—around 40,000 tons in September, according to converging estimates by Reuters and the newspaper “The Kyiv Independent.”
The damage is both economic and symbolic. In many Russian regions, the price of “red” gasoline has now reached 100 rubles a liter, exceeding the capacity of many outdated electronic charging stations: a paradox that highlights the crisis of a wartime economy forced to buy fuel even while sitting on vast oil reserves.
The IEA itself predicts that the cumulative effects of the Ukrainian strikes will continue to depress Russian revenues at least until 2026. While Russian refined petroleum product exports have fallen to a record low, crude oil exports have risen to 5.1 million barrels per day, the highest level since May 2023.
To put a finger on the wound, the Ukrainian strikes have caused disruptions in eight weeks that are equivalent to those resulting from the modest but persistent effects of 12 years of sanctions. A merciless comparison, and the reason is well known: Europe has continued to buy.
The sanctions have reduced growth and fiscal margins, resulting in a decrease of 1–1.5 points in Russian GDP annually. The price cap slightly lowered those revenues, but they still remained quite substantial throughout 2024 and the first half of 2025. In short, Europe’s permeability kept energy revenues flowing heavily to the Russian terrorist regime, which continues to be supported by European countries through record purchases of gas and LNG.
For this reason, given that European imports of Russian fossil fuels totaled €21.9 billion and Brussels provided €18.7 billion in net financial aid to Ukraine, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda stated that «the European Union is financially on Russia’s side.»
As IEA analysts have highlighted, the Ukrainian strikes caused immediate and widespread effects, slowing Moscow’s air force operations and ground transportation of troops and war supplies. Until Europe cuts off the gas supplies through which Russian state terrorism flows, the only effective tool to target Putin’s regime and alter the situation on the battlefield will be Ukrainian strength and resilience.
乌克兰瞄准俄罗斯恐怖政权的核心
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
原文链接：https://medium.com/@giorgioprovinciali/ukraine-targets-the-core-of-russias-terror-regime-59409cc21f8b?sk=b4ea115f900d74127ac5a3faf329d30a
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基辅 — 作为“深度打击行动”的一部分，乌克兰无人机袭击了位于巴什科尔托斯坦共和国乌法市的俄罗斯巴什石油-UNPZ炼油厂，该地距离乌克兰1400公里。这是近期进行的第三次此类深度打击，其完全成功实施凸显了两个关键点：乌克兰凭借其自主生产的武器，可以打击敌方领土上的任何目标；以这种方式攻击俄罗斯供应链的效果比多年来的广泛制裁更快、更精确。
乌克兰特勤局“阿尔法”特种作战中心的无人机再次瞄准并精确打击了原油炼油塔，即ELOU-AVT-6装置的核心，正如几天前他们袭击俄罗斯克拉斯诺达尔边疆区的阿菲普斯基炼油厂，以及更早之前他们打击造成位于楚瓦什共和国的“廷戈瓦托沃”输油站1号塔停止运行一样，而该输油站距离乌克兰也有1000公里之遥。
（图：照片来源：BBC）
这些袭击对俄罗斯石油生产能力产生即时影响，从而对其的战时经济产生了直接影响。通过打击38家炼油厂中的19家，乌克兰不仅使一半的设施停止运行，还将俄罗斯的炼油能力降低了20%以上。早在9月份，当国际能源署（IEA）估计俄罗斯的精炼石油出口量处于过去十年来的最低水平（不包括2020年4月）时，莫斯科就已实施汽油出口禁令，并限制柴油零售商直到2025年底。根据路透社和《基辅独立报》的一致估计，为了弥补乌克兰袭击造成的缺口，俄罗斯联邦现在被迫增加从白俄罗斯等国的进口，9月份的进口量约为4万吨。
损害既是经济的，也是象征性的。在俄罗斯许多地区，“红色”汽油的价格现在已经达到了每升100卢布，超过了许多过时的电子充电站的容量：这种悖论凸显了战时经济的危机，即使坐拥巨大的石油储备，也不得不购买燃料。
（图：图片来源：Meduza）
国际能源署本身预测，乌克兰袭击的累积效应将至少持续到2026年，其抑制俄罗斯的收入。虽然俄罗斯的精炼石油产品出口已降至历史最低水平，但原油出口已升至每天510万桶，为2023年5月以来的最高水平。
一针见血的是，乌克兰的打击在八周内造成的破坏，相当于12年来温和但持续的制裁所造成的影响。这是一个无情的比较，原因众所周知：欧洲一直在购买。
制裁降低了财政增长和盈余率，导致俄罗斯GDP每年下降1-1.5个百分点。价格上限略微降低了这些收入，但在整个2024年和2025年上半年，这些收入仍然相当可观。简而言之，欧洲的渗透性使能源收入大量流入俄罗斯恐怖主义政权，欧洲国家通过创纪录地天然气和液化天然气购买继续支持该政权。
（图片来源：欧盟委员会能源总司，SWD(2025) 830，基于LSEG和ENTSOG）
因此，鉴于欧洲从俄罗斯进口的化石燃料总额为219亿欧元，而布鲁塞尔向乌克兰提供了187亿欧元的净财政援助，立陶宛总统吉塔纳斯·瑙塞达表示，“欧盟在财政上站在俄罗斯一边。”
正如国际能源署的分析师所强调的那样，乌克兰的袭击产生了直接而广泛的影响，减缓了莫斯科空军的行动以及部队和战争物资的地面运输。在欧洲切断俄罗斯国家恐怖主义赖以生存的天然气供应之前，打击普京政权并改变战场局势的唯一有效工具将是乌克兰的力量和韧性。
（图：看看这位乌克兰作家，Olesia F.！我今天在乌克兰基辅见到了她—版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
