President Donald Trump counts U.S. farmers as one of his most loyal constituencies, but the administration’s recent move to expand economic support for Argentina has drawn the ire of the agriculture industry.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on social media on Wednesday that he and Trump spoke at length with Argentina president Javier Milei about plans to financially support Argentina to assist in its stabilization. The Treasury is negotiating with Argentina for a $20 billion swap line with Argentina’s central bank, Bessent said on X.com. As part of its effort to increase the flow of capital, Argentina also suspended its export taxes this week, including on soybeans.
Amid the negotiations with the U.S., Argentina reportedly strengthened its trade partnership with China, whch ordered at least 10 cargoes of soybeans from the South American country, according to Reuters, which cited multiple traders.
The moves have dealt a blow to soybean farmers in the U.S., who are strongly dependent on exports to China, and have continued to be priced out of the global market due to tariffs hiking the cost of their crop in the midst of its busy harvest season. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export summaries, China has not bought U.S. soybeans since May.
“The frustration is overwhelming,” the American Soybean Association (ASA) President Caleb Ragland said in a statement on Wednesday. “U.S. soybean prices are falling, harvest is underway, and farmers read headlines not about securing a trade agreement with China, but that the U.S. government is extending $200 billion in economic support to Argentina while that country drops its soybean export taxes to sell 20 shiploads of Argentine soybeans to China in just two days.”
“The farm economy is suffering while our competitors supplant the United States in the biggest soybean import market in the world,” it concluded.
Soybeans accounted for nearly 20% of the U.S.’s cash crop receipts in 2024, raking in $46.8 billion, according to data from the USDA. About one quarter of all soybean exports from the U.S. go to China, but retaliatory tariffs from China as a result of the ongoing trade war—which have reached 34%—have hobbled U.S. farmers, while South American countries like Brazil and Argentina have racked up market share. As of 2024, Brazil made up 71% of the Chinese soybean imports, according to the ASA, up from 2% three decades ago.
For the farmers, the changing market share dynamics isn’t personal, it’s just business, according to Ryan Loy, assistant professor and extension economist for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.
“There’s a lot of politics involved, but at the end of the day, it’s a function of who is cheaper on the market,” Loy told Fortune.
Economic impact on rural America
This market squeeze has an outsized impact on rural communities, where farming can make up 20% of a county’s employment. As global demand for U.S. soybeans waver, so, too, do profits for farmers.
In parts of the Midwest like North and South Dakota and Minnesota, the majority of soybeans get routed to ports in the Pacific Northwest to be shipped overseas. But with fewer shipments of soybeans being exported, supply is piling up, driving down the cost of soybeans. Since its 2022 peak, soybean prices have fallen about 40%.
While some soybeans can go to crushing facilities to be repurposed as oil or used in ethanol, many soybean farms aren’t located near plants able to process and use the crop domestically, Kyle Jore, an economist and farmer in Thief River Falls in northwest Minnesota and secretary of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, said even if a trade with with China were to be made today, transportation bookings to take the crop out of state are full because of the busy corn harvest.
“We’re probably just going to plan to sit on the soybeans and wait,” Jore said.
Many farmers trying to cut their losses will sell their soybeans to agricultural co-ops who will buy the crops, but at a much lower price than market rate.
“In the meantime, though, the producers that sell are taking large losses,” Jore said. “And they’re going to have to feel those losses.”
