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overview of air engagements in the Russia?Ukraine conflict up through July 11, 2025:

Russian Aerial Assaults & Ukrainian Air Defenses


? Ukrainian Air Force: Engagements & Losses

  • F-16 Incidents:

    • On May 16, a Ukrainian F?16 crashed during an interception mission after downing three incoming aerial threats; the pilot ejected safely Wikipedia+15The War Zone+15The Wall Street Journal+15.

    • In late June, Lt.?Col. Maksym Ustimenko died heroically in an F?16 while intercepting seven threats during a major drone–missile attack; he directed the aircraft away from civilians before crashing New York Post.

  • First Ukrainian F?16 air-to-air kill occurred on June 7: a Netherlands-supplied F?16AM, guided by Swedish AEW&C, shot down a Russian Su?35 over Kursk Wikipedia+10UNITED24 Media+10New York Post+10.


Key Takeaways

  • Russia has dramatically ramped up its drone and missile onslaught, pushing numbers to record highs (700+ per raid).

  • Ukraine’s layered defense network (Patriots, interceptor drones, EW, and jets) has intercepted the majority of threats—often 50%+ of incoming drones and missiles.

  • Ukraine’s F?16s have proven effective—scoring an air-to-air kill—but suffered losses in the process.

  • Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage continue to escalate, prompting urgent international calls for more air defense support Укра?нська правда+12AP News+12Deutsche Welle+12The Wall Street Journal.


What Comes Next?

  • Russia aims to increase drone production (over 5,000 per month) and may reach >1,000 in a single strike by autumn The Wall Street Journal.

  • Ukraine is intensifying its air defense acquisitions, particularly Patriot batteries via NATO, and bolstering EW and interceptor drone fleets .


Summary Table: Recent Air Combat Stats

Date Russian Launches Ukrainian Intercepts Ukrainian Losses Ukrainian Wins
July?8–9 ~741 Tens via intercept drones/EW The Times of India+6Institute for the Study of War+6The Wall Street Journal+6
July?9–10 ~415 178 intercepted
July?10–11 ~400 drones + 18 missiles ~400 drones, all missiles
June?7 F?16 shot down Su?35
May?16 1 F?16 crashed (pilot ejected)
June?late 1 F?16 (Lt.?Col. Ustimenko) killed

Outlook

  • Air combat remains highly dynamic, with Russia using quantity (mass strikes) and Ukraine relying on quality defense measures.

  • Ukraine’s F?16s have started to punch above their weight but come with high risks.

  • International air defense support is now crucial to maintain Ukrainian resilience and deter civilian harm.

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