I don’t believe that Netanyahu’s policies are the main cause of the recent Middle East conflicts involving Iran, its proxy militias, and Israel. The ideological hostility of Iran’s supreme leaders and the groups it supports, Hezbollah, Assad regime, Houthis and, at times, Hamas, has been rooted in anti-Zionism since Israel’s founding in 1948. Their only mission of eliminating the Jewish state predates Netanyahu by decades.
Hamas began constructing its underground tunnel networks in the early 2000s, before Netanyahu’s return to office in 2009. Similarly, Iran started its nuclear weapon-related work, secretly seaking help from Pakistan, China and later Russia began in the late 1980s after the Islamic Revolution. Netanyahu’s hawkish policies may influence the timing of hostile actions but are definitely not the root cause of the conflict. The fundamental driver is a long-standing ideological commitment to the destruction of Israel.
Given this existential threat, Israel is left with no real choice but to fight until either it ceases to exist or its enemies do. In contrast, many Arab states that once fought Israel, including Egypt, Jordan, and more recently the UAE and others, have moved toward normalization and diplomacy. But extremist Islamist factions remain steadfast in their refusal to accept Israel’s existence—and are unlikely to change that position - they will continue their mission with every breath.
What has the U.S. meant to Israel? Without the US, Israel might have ceased to exist long ago. That's why the U.S. and Israel are inseparable. If Israel falls, the U.S. could be next, sooner or later, no matter what it does. The continued presence of extremist islamists makes the threat a ticking time bomb. It's not a question of if, but when.
Trump's policy to iran has been always trying to cripple it economically, deter its military power, eliminate key figures, isolate it diplomatically, and force it to accept a tougher deal all without starting a full-scale war.
1. He withdrew from JCPOA in 2018 because he believed the agreement was too weak.
2. He labeled Iran's IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization in 2019.
3. He ordered a drone strike that killed IRGC general Soleimani. Iran responded with missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, no deaths, but tensions escalated dangerously.
4. Under Trump, the U.S conducted cyber operations against Iran's missile systems.
However, with all those,
1. Iran did not halt nuclear program
2. did not bring Iran to talks
3. did not reduce Iran's regional influence. It remains active in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
4. EU and others opposed U.S. withdrawal of JCPOA.
It is hard to predict what Trump will do next. Trump, like Obama during the Crimea crisis, is boxed in by his own anti-war message. Both leaders made promises that limited their ability to respond forcefully without betraying their political base.
In my view, here's what Trump and Israel should consider in the short term:
1. If they truly believe they have the capability to destroy or permanently disable Iran's nuclear weapons sites, then they should act immediately.
2. If they lack the capability or cannot afford the scale of Iranian retaliation, then they have no choice but to halt and strategically pursue a better long-term solution to eliminate the threat.
In the long run, the IRGC-led regime in Iran must be dismantled. As long as it remains in power, future generations in both Israel and the U.S. will continue to live under the shadow of existential threats.
