到底哪个民调说，超过一半美国人要deport所有非法移民？答案是，找不到。

来源: voiceofme 于 2025-04-17 13:57:53 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (104761 bytes)

本帖于 2025-04-17 13:58:16 时间, 由普通用户 voiceofme 编辑

Analysis of Breitbart's Claim Regarding a 2025 CNN Poll on Immigrant Deportation

1. Introduction

Public discourse surrounding immigration in the United States often involves claims about the level of support for various policy proposals, including the deportation of individuals residing in the country without legal authorization. This report addresses a specific query regarding a claim attributed to Breitbart, which reportedly stated that a 2025 CNN poll indicated that more than half of U.S. citizens agree with the deportation of all illegal immigrants. The objective of this analysis is to investigate the veracity of this claim by examining available polling data from 2025 and late 2024 related to public opinion on immigration and deportation. This report will analyze findings from various polling organizations, including Pew Research Center, CBS News, and others that conducted surveys relevant to this topic around the specified timeframe, to ascertain whether any CNN poll in 2025 aligns with Breitbart's assertion.

2. Methodology for Identifying the Alleged CNN Poll

2.1 Initial Google Search: As per the user's instructions, an initial step involves considering the results of a Google search using the terms "CNN poll 2025 immigration deportation." The provided snippets 1 represent the kind of information that such a search might yield. This preliminary review reveals several polls conducted by different organizations in 2025 and late 2024 that touch upon the topic of immigration and, in some cases, deportation. For instance, a Pew Research Center poll from March 2025 directly addresses Americans' views on deportations.1 Articles from CBS News discuss public approval of President Trump's handling of immigration and his deportation program.3 Additionally, an article from The Fulcrum references an October 2024 SSRS/CNN poll concerning preferences between mass deportation and a path to citizenship.2 Loyola Marymount University Newsroom mentions a CNN poll from March 2025 regarding the Democratic Party's favorability 12, while SSRS notes conducting polls for CNN in April 2025 on other topics.15 KFF.org presents findings from a 2016 Kaiser Family Foundation/CNN poll on working-class whites' views on immigration.13 This initial search suggests that while polls related to immigration were conducted by or in partnership with CNN around this period, a specific poll matching Breitbart's description requires further scrutiny. The variety of sources and poll topics underscores the complexity of gauging public sentiment on immigration through polling data.

2.2 Breitbart Website Search: The user's instructions also included searching Breitbart's website for articles published in 2025 that discuss a CNN poll regarding the deportation of all illegal immigrants. Since the provided snippets do not contain content directly from Breitbart's website, this step remains hypothetical within the confines of this analysis. Locating such an article on Breitbart's site would be crucial to understanding the specific CNN poll they are referencing and the context in which they reported its findings. Without access to Breitbart's website content, this report will primarily focus on analyzing the CNN and other relevant polls identified through the initial search and the provided snippets to assess the plausibility of Breitbart's claim.

3. Analysis of Relevant Poll Data from 2025

3.1 Pew Research Center Poll (March 2025): A poll conducted by the Pew Research Center between February 24 and March 2, 2025, surveyed 5,123 adults on their views regarding the deportation of immigrants living in the U.S. without legal authorization.1 The methodology involved surveying members of the Center's American Trends Panel, a group recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses who have agreed to participate in regular surveys.1 The poll's findings indicate that approximately one-third of U.S. adults (32%) believe that all immigrants living in the country illegally should be deported, while 16% think none should be deported. A slight majority (51%) expressed the view that at least some should face deportation.1 Among those who favored some deportations, nearly all (97%) supported deporting those who have committed violent crimes, while opinions were more divided on deporting those who committed nonviolent crimes (52%) or those who arrived in the U.S. in the past four years (44%). Considerably fewer supported deporting those with family ties in the U.S..1 This detailed breakdown reveals that the notion of a majority supporting the deportation of all immigrants living in the country illegally is not supported by this Pew Research Center poll. The specific question asked by Pew Research was whether "all immigrants living in the U.S. illegally should be deported," offering options of "all," "some," or "none".1 This direct question about the deportation of all undocumented immigrants yielded a 32% support rate, significantly below the "more than half" figure claimed by Breitbart. Furthermore, the poll highlights a stark partisan divide, with 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents supporting the deportation of all immigrants living in the country illegally, compared to only 10% of Democrats and Democratic leaners.1 This suggests that Breitbart's claim might be reflecting the views of a specific political segment rather than the overall U.S. adult population.

3.2 CBS News Poll (March 2025): A CBS News poll from March 2025 indicated that President Trump maintained "continued majority approval on immigration and on his deportation program, specifically".3 This approval was particularly strong among his Republican base. While this suggests public support for the concept of a deportation program, the available information does not specify whether this approval extends to the deportation of all individuals living in the country without legal authorization.3 The lack of detail regarding the specific questions asked in the CBS News poll makes it difficult to directly compare its findings to Breitbart's claim. It is possible that Breitbart interpreted general approval of a deportation program as support for the mass deportation of all undocumented immigrants, which might not accurately reflect the nuances of public opinion.

3.3 CBS News Poll (February 2025): Another CBS News poll, conducted in February 2025, also found that President Trump's deportation policy had majority approval overall, consistent with the sentiment expressed by most voters during the 2024 campaign.7 This poll also noted a split in public opinion regarding the creation of large detention centers for individuals facing deportation, with strong support for such centers among Mr. Trump's 2024 voters. Similar to the March poll, this data indicates general support for a deportation policy favored by the Trump administration. However, it does not provide specific figures on the percentage of Americans who agree with the deportation of all immigrants living in the country illegally. The focus on the approval of President Trump's specific policy and the views of his voters suggests a potential emphasis on a particular political perspective, which might not represent the broader public opinion on the blanket deportation of all undocumented immigrants.

3.4 Kaiser Family Foundation/CNN Working-Class Whites Poll (Potentially Relevant): Although conducted in 2016, the Kaiser Family Foundation/CNN Working-Class Whites Poll provides some context regarding attitudes towards immigration within a specific demographic.13 This poll found that 55% of working-class whites believed that the government should attempt to deport all people living in the country illegally. The methodology involved telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample, with specific efforts to ensure sufficient representation of working-class whites.13 While this poll indicates that a majority within this specific demographic held this view in 2016, it is crucial to note that this data is not from 2025 and focuses on a subset of the U.S. population. Therefore, it cannot be directly used to validate Breitbart's claim about a 2025 CNN poll reflecting overall national sentiment. However, it highlights that support for mass deportation might be higher within certain segments of the population, which could be a point of focus for Breitbart's reporting.

3.5 SSRS/CNN Poll (October 2024) mentioned in The Fulcrum article: An article published by The Fulcrum references an SSRS/CNN poll conducted in October 2024 that directly addressed the issue of deporting all people living in the U.S. illegally.2 This poll found that only 33% of respondents supported "deporting all people living in the U.S. illegally" when they were also given the option of "developing a plan to allow some people living in the U.S. illegally to become legal residents," which was preferred by 67% of respondents. Even when the question focused solely on mass deportation, with no specific details about the policy, overall support was just 26%, including 40% of Republicans. This poll, although from late 2024, is significant as it is a CNN poll that directly asked about the deportation of all undocumented immigrants and found that a substantial majority did not support this policy. This finding directly contradicts Breitbart's claim of a 2025 CNN poll showing more than half of U.S. citizens agreeing to such a measure. The availability of an alternative option (path to citizenship) significantly influenced the results, suggesting that public opinion on this issue is complex and depends on the framing of the choices.

3.6 Gallup Poll Data: Gallup polling data from March 2025 reveals that 40% of Americans reported worrying a great deal about illegal immigration, a slight decrease from 48% in March 2024.5 Additionally, among those dissatisfied with the level of immigration into the U.S., 45% indicated in 2025 that they would like to see the level decreased. While these figures indicate a significant level of concern about illegal immigration and a desire for reduced immigration levels among a portion of the population, they do not directly measure support for the deportation of all undocumented immigrants. Wanting decreased immigration can be achieved through various policy measures beyond mass deportation, such as stricter border controls or changes in visa policies. Therefore, this data, while relevant to the broader context of immigration attitudes, does not substantiate Breitbart's specific claim about a CNN poll on mass deportation.

4. Potential Nuances and Contextual Factors

4.1 Wording of Poll Questions: The precise language used in polling questions about deportation is critical in interpreting the results.1 As seen in the Pew Research Center poll, asking specifically about "all immigrants living in the U.S. illegally" yields a different response than a more general question about approval of a "deportation program," as observed in the CBS News polls. Breitbart might be referencing a poll with less specific wording or interpreting general support for stricter immigration enforcement as support for the blanket deportation of all undocumented immigrants. Without knowing the exact wording of the CNN poll question cited by Breitbart, it is difficult to definitively assess the accuracy of their reporting. It is plausible that a question framed in a particular way, perhaps focusing on the rule of law or national security, might elicit a higher level of agreement than a question directly asking about the mass deportation of all individuals regardless of their circumstances.

4.2 Availability of Alternatives: The SSRS/CNN poll from October 2024 clearly demonstrates that offering an alternative policy, such as a path to citizenship, significantly reduces support for mass deportation.2 If the CNN poll referenced by Breitbart did not present alternative solutions, the level of support for deportation might appear inflated compared to polls that provide a broader range of options. Public opinion on complex policy issues is rarely monolithic, and the framing of choices can substantially influence the responses obtained in surveys. Therefore, it is important to consider whether the alleged CNN poll presented deportation as the sole option or as one of several potential approaches to addressing the issue of undocumented immigration.

4.3 Demographic Breakdowns: As highlighted by the Pew Research Center data, there are significant partisan differences in views on the deportation of undocumented immigrants.1 The 2016 KFF/CNN poll also indicated higher support for mass deportation among working-class whites.13 Breitbart, known for its conservative leaning, might be selectively reporting data from specific demographic groups where support for mass deportation is higher, rather than presenting the overall national average. Focusing on the views of a particular segment of the population can create a skewed perception of the general public sentiment on the issue. To accurately assess Breitbart's claim, it would be necessary to examine whether the alleged CNN poll provided demographic breakdowns and whether Breitbart's reporting accurately reflected the overall findings or focused disproportionately on specific subgroups.

4.4 Timing and Context of Polls: Public opinion on immigration is often influenced by current events and policy changes.4 In early 2025, there were reports of a sharp drop in migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border 4 and ongoing implementation of Trump administration anti-immigration measures.10 These events could potentially have an impact on public sentiment regarding immigration enforcement. The precise date of the CNN poll referenced by Breitbart in 2025 would be crucial for understanding the specific context in which the data was collected. It is possible that a poll conducted during a period of heightened concern about border security or illegal immigration might show a temporary increase in support for stricter measures like deportation. However, without knowing the specific timing and the questions asked, it is challenging to determine the extent to which such contextual factors might have influenced the results reported by Breitbart.

5. Conclusion

Based on the analysis of the available polling data from 2025 and late 2024, there is no clear evidence to support Breitbart's claim that a CNN poll in 2025 showed more than half of U.S. citizens agree to deport all illegal immigrants. The Pew Research Center poll from March 2025 indicated that only 32% of U.S. adults supported this policy.1 Furthermore, an SSRS/CNN poll from October 2024 found even lower overall support (26%) for mass deportation when presented as a standalone option and 33% when offered as an alternative to a path to citizenship.2 While CBS News polls in early 2025 showed majority approval for President Trump's deportation program 3, these findings did not specify whether this approval extended to the deportation of all undocumented immigrants.

The 2016 KFF/CNN poll suggested higher support for mass deportation among working-class whites, but this data is not from 2025 and represents a specific demographic.13 Gallup data from March 2025 indicated significant concern about illegal immigration and a desire for decreased immigration levels among a portion of the population, but this does not directly equate to support for the deportation of all undocumented immigrants.5

Table 1: Public Opinion on Deportation of Undocumented Immigrants in 2024-2025 (Based on Available Snippets)

Source	Date	Question Phrasing	% Supporting Deportation of All	Notes
Pew Research Center	Mar 2025	All immigrants living in the country illegally should be deported?	32%
SSRS/CNN (via Fulcrum)	Oct 2024	Deporting all people living in the U.S. illegally?	33%	When offered as an alternative to a path to citizenship (67% preferred citizenship).
SSRS/CNN (via Fulcrum)	Oct 2024	Mass deportation?	26%	Overall support. 40% among Republicans.
KFF/CNN	Sep 2016	Government should attempt to deport all people living in the country illegally?	55%	Data from 2016, focused on working-class whites.

The available evidence suggests that the claim made by Breitbart regarding a 2025 CNN poll showing majority support for the deportation of all illegal immigrants is not substantiated by the polling data accessible through the provided snippets. It is crucial to consider the specific wording of poll questions, the availability of alternative policy options, and the potential focus on specific demographic groups when interpreting public opinion on this complex issue. Without access to the specific CNN poll referenced by Breitbart, this analysis relies on related polling data from around the same period, which indicates a lower level of support for the mass deportation of all undocumented immigrants than claimed. Further investigation into Breitbart's reporting and the specific CNN poll they cited would be necessary to definitively verify the accuracy of their statement.