My final prediction on the election with help from chatgpt.

来源: voiceofme 于 2024-11-04 17:58:14 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (4410 bytes)

本帖于 2024-11-04 18:03:00 时间, 由普通用户 voiceofme 编辑

I get the probability to win in each state from 538 combined polls number in https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/ , for example in WI, Harris is 48.3% vs 47.3%, and normalized to have 50.5% probability to win vs 49.5% to lose. Then I ask the following question to chatGPT

Question: The following specifies in each state, what is Harris probability to win the state and number of votes in this state.

PA state: Harris: 47.9% vs 47.7%, normalized to have 50.1% probability to win vs 49.9% to lose, with 19 votes,

AR state: Harris: 46.7% vs 48.9%, normalized to have 48.8% probability to win vs 51.2% to lose, with 11 votes,

GA state: Harris: 47.5% vs 48.2%, normalized to have 49.6% probability to win vs 50.4% to lose, with 16 votes,

MI state: Harris: 48.0% vs 47.0%, normalized to have 50.5% probability to win vs 49.5% to lose, with 15 votes,

NV state: Harris: 47.4% vs 47.7%, normalized to have 49.8% probability to win vs 50.2% to lose, with 6 votes,

NC state: Harris: 47.4% vs 48.3%, normalized to have 49.5% probability to win vs 50.5% to lose, with 16 votes,

WI state: Harris: 48.3% vs 47.3%, normalized to have 50.5% probability to win vs 49.5% to lose, with 10 votes.

Harris starts with 226 votes, after she wins a extra state from the above list, she will add the number of votes in that state, and she needs to reach 270 votes in order to win. What is her overall probability of winning?

Answer:

To calculate Harris's overall probability of winning, we need to determine her probability of securing enough electoral votes to reach the threshold of 270. Currently, she has 226 votes, so she needs an additional 44 votes.

The states provided have the following votes and probabilities for Harris to win:

PA - 19 votes, 50.1% probability
AR - 11 votes, 48.8% probability
GA - 16 votes, 49.6% probability
MI - 15 votes, 50.5% probability
NV - 6 votes, 49.8% probability
NC - 16 votes, 49.5% probability
WI - 10 votes, 50.5% probability

With these probabilities, we will calculate Harris's likelihood of reaching or exceeding the additional 44 votes needed from these states using probability concepts, such as the binomial distribution or a Monte Carlo simulation, to model the cumulative probabilities.

Let's proceed with this calculation using a probabilistic approach.

Harris's overall probability of winning, based on the simulation, is approximately 55.2%. This means she has a slightly better than even chance of reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win. ?[analysis link]

I click the links for analysis, and it shows python code for a MC simulation: