让我们从最大、最重要的更新开始。刚刚结束的金砖国家领导人会晤，其结果超出了我的预期。宣布正式接纳6名新成员，比目前金砖国家规模增加一倍多：Let’s start with the biggest, most momentous update of all. The BRICS summit, which has just ended, ended up in ways surpassing my expectations. The official acceptance of 6 new members was announced, which is more than a doubling of the current size of the BRICS:
伊朗、阿拉伯联合酋长国、沙特阿拉伯、阿根廷、埃及和埃塞俄比亚。他们的正式成员资格将于 2024 年 1 月 1 日开始。新金砖国家：Iran, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia. Their official membership will begin on January 1, 2024. The new BRICS:
据宣布，他们将保留金砖国家这个名称，并且不会添加新字母。It was announced they will be keeping the name BRICS and not adding new letters.
让我们来分析一下这一历史性扩张的最重要的点。Let’s break down the most important points of this historic expansion.
首先，按购买力平价计算，这一群体目前占世界 GDP 的 37%。请记住，备受吹捧的 G7 的比例为 29.9%，低于 1992 年的 46%。如果Firstly, this group now represents 37% of the world’s GDP in PPP terms. Keep in mind that the much vaunted G7 has 29.9%, down from 46% in 1992. And if all 未来所有潜在成员都加入，比例将是 45%：prospective members join in the future, it’ll be 45%:
认为这还不够大吗？新的 11 个成员国金砖国家，其能源大国伊朗、阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯，现在还控制着世界约 54% 的石油产量和世界 46% 的人口。更不用说它们将占世界陆地面积的 4850 万平方公里，即 36%。 Think that’s not a big enough deal? The new 11-member BRICS, with its energy powerhouses of Iran, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, now also controls ~54% of the world’s oil production and 46% of the world’s population. Not to mention they will account for 48.5 million square kilometers, or 36% of the world’s landmass area.
其他一些需要注意的事项。首先，他们承诺继续扩大规模，以便有更多成员考虑参加下一次峰会，下一次峰会应该是在一年后，由俄罗斯主持，并可能在俄罗斯举行。这意味着到明年夏天，所有这些数字甚至可能大幅增加。Some other things to note. Firstly, they promised to continue expansion so there will be more members considered for the next summit, which should be one year from this one and will be chaired by, and presumably take place in, Russia. That means by next summer all of these numbers could even drastically increase.
此外，金砖国家成员确实提出了启动金砖国家间结算支付系统和货币工作的倡议。目前还没有时间表，据称他们希望在 5-10 年内开发出一款。但即使与此同时，他们也会加大力度以本国货币结算，而不是美元。因此，去美元化将继续加速，特别是现在有新成员加入。只是他们会在本国货币之间进行兑换，而不是像欧盟使用欧元那样使用新的单一金砖国家间货币。Further, the BRICS members did verbalize an initiative to begin work on an inter-BRICS settlement payment system and currency. The timetable for it is not immediate, allegedly within 5-10 years they hope to develop one. But even in the meantime, they will increase initiatives towards settling in their own currencies away from the dollar. So the de-dollarization will continue accelerating, especially now that there are new members on board. It’s just that they will convert between their own currencies rather than use a new single inter-BRICS currency in the way the EU uses the Euro.
媒体援引 Trace Finance 货币政策部门负责人 Evandro Casianu 的话说，金砖国家银行正在为该集团国家开发单一数字货币。?The Bank of the BRICS countries is developing a single digital currency for the states of the group, - the media, citing the head of the monetary policy department of Trace Finance, Evandro Casianu.
他表示，如果金砖国家银行发行单一数字货币，那么该集团是可能的According to him, a single digital currency of the bloc is possible if it is issued by the BRICS bank
- 这可能会在5-10年内发生，相应项目的实施将分阶段进行- This can happen in 5-10 years, the implementation of the corresponding project will be phased
- 因此，单一货币可用于贸易交易- As a result, a single currency can be used for trade transactions
值得注意的是，新的金砖国家货币不会像欧元那样取代街头普通人的日常使用。他们将继续在各自国家使用自己的货币。金砖国家货币将更多地由各国央行用于结算相互之间的贸易，以避免购买美元。因此，在这方面，它不会像欧盟那样，用欧元取代德国马克和其他货币。It’s been noted that the new BRICS currency will not be like the Euro in that it won’t be currency to replace daily usage for the average person in the streets. They will continue using their own currencies in their individual countries. The BRICS currency will be more for the countries’ own central banks to settle trade amongst themselves to avoid purchasing USD dollars. So in that respect, it won’t be like the EU where the Euro replaces the Deutsche Mark and all the rest.
这篇文章This article甚至描述了普京呼吁成立新的金砖国家运输委员会，为成员国制定所有新的航线物流。 even describes Putin’s call for a new BRICS transport commission to figure out all the new route logistics for the members.
“金砖国家互动的一个重要优先事项是创建新的可持续和安全的运输路线……我们认为，现在是在金砖国家框架内建立一个常设交通委员会的时候了，该委员会不仅涉及南北之间的问题俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在第 15 届峰会上通过视频连线向观众发表讲话时说道。"An important priority for BRICS interaction is the creation of new sustainable and safe transport routes... We believe that the time has come to establish within the framework of BRICS a permanent commission on transport, which would deal not only with the North-South project, but also, in a broader sense, with the development of logistics and transport corridors," Russian President Vladimir Putin said, addressing the audience of the 15th summit via video link.
文章解释说，该委员会特别希望确保金砖国家主要成员有能力绕过新加坡海峡、马六甲海峡、苏伊士运河、博斯普鲁斯海峡、霍尔木兹海峡等关键战略走廊和咽喉要道。 The article explains that in particular, this commission would look toward ensuring the chief BRICS members’ ability to bypass critically strategic corridors and choke points like the Strait of Singapore, Strait of Malacca, Suez Canal, Bosphorus, Strait of Hormuz, etc.
众所周知，沙特阿拉伯此前曾表示，他们正在考虑允许以人民币进行石油贸易。这不是来自锡纸来源，而是来自《华尔街日报》本身：As most know, Saudi Arabia has previously signaled that they’re considering allowing trade of oil in Yuan. And that’s not from a tinfoil source but from the Wallstreet Journal itself:
那是在沙特阿拉伯成为金砖国家成员之前很久。现在想象一下在中期未来的某个时刻，金砖国家创造了自己的货币，而沙特阿拉伯则放弃了石油美元。这可能引发的全球变化类型是无法估量的。整个布雷顿森林体系将开始瓦解，尽管可以说它已经开始瓦解。That was long before KSA became a member of BRICS. Now imagine some point in the medium term future, BRICS creates its currency and Saudi Arabia ditches the petrodollar. The types of global changes this could precipitate are incalculable. The entire Bretton Woods system would begin to unravel, though it’s arguably starting to unravel already.
Pepe Escobar spills more details in his 佩佩·埃斯科瓦尔 (Pepe Escobar) 在他的新人造卫星文章new Sputnik article中也透露了更多细节。他透露，普京提到的谈判中的“巨大困难”之一是印度只想接纳3个新成员，而中国则想要10个，目前已达成6个妥协方案。中国如此看好金砖国家，这是个好消息——这意味着习主席非常认真地想要推翻西方霸权体系。 as well. He reveals that one of the “great difficulties” in the negotiations which Putin referenced was that India wanted to admit only 3 new members, while China wanted 10, with a compromise of 6 having been reached. The fact that China is so bullish on the BRICS is good news—it means president Xi is very serious about overturning the system of Western hegemony.
而被接纳的6个成员比想象中的要好：埃及，按GDP PPP计算是非洲最大的经济体；伊朗和沙特阿拉伯代表着两个海湾强国历史性地和解，占据同一集团。阿联酋是迪拜和埃塞俄比亚的故乡，据说是目前经济增长最快的非洲国家和自然资源大国，更不用说，重要的是，它是仅次于尼日利亚的第二大非洲And the 6 accepted members are better than imagined: with Egypt, which represents the largest economy in Africa by GDP PPP; Iran and KSA, which represent a historic rapprochement for the two gulf powerhouses to occupy the same bloc. UAE, the home of Dubai and Ethiopia which is said to be the current fastest economically growing African country and a natural resources powerhouse, not to mention, importantly, is the 国家2nd most populous。是的，埃塞俄比亚的人口数量甚至比埃及还要多，为 1.26 亿。 African country after Nigeria. Yes, Ethiopia is even more populous than Egypt, at 126 million.
阿根廷是一匹黑马。当然，它是南美大陆的强大代表，但正如Argentina is a bit of a dark horse. Sure it’s a powerful representative of the South American continent, however as 本文指出的this article points out那样，它可能被证明是一项糟糕的投资。作者表示，极右翼候选人哈维尔·米雷可能会赢得十月份的总统选举，并已承诺切断与中国的关系，并将阿根廷重新定位为“文明的西方”，这可能意味着放弃金砖国家。, it can prove to be a bad investment. Far-right candidate Javier Milei, according to the author, could win October’s presidential elections and has already promised to cut ties with China and re-orient Argentina to the “civilized West”, which would likely mean ditching BRICS.
作者恰当地总结了金砖国家概念的主要优点和缺点：The author aptly summarizes the chief strength and weakness of the BRICS concept:
金砖国家的优点和缺点之一是它不具有意识形态性。非意识形态合作是一种福气，因为它有可能经受住选举的考验，但它也是一种负担，因为这意味着建设长期项目的总体热情较低，再加上选举（或政变）也有风险。如果极端分子当选，就有可能推翻它。这最终意味着金砖国家要想保持价值，就必须产生政客们可以向国内受众展示的切实成果。也许，为此，如果阿根廷得到新的现金承诺，无论总统选举结果如何，它最终都会加入。One of the strengths and weaknesses of BRICS is that it is not ideological. Non-ideological cooperation is a blessing because it has the possibility to withstand the test of elections, but it’s a liability because it means that the general enthusiasm for building a long-term project is lower, plus an election (or a coup) also has the possibility to upend it if an extremist is elected. This ultimately means that for BRICS to remain worthwhile, it has to produce tangible results that politicians can show to their domestic audiences. Perhaps, to that end, if Argentina is promised fresh cash, it will end up joining whatever the result of its presidential election.
但一些南半球国家政府的不可预测性以及由此带来的脆弱性无疑将成为金砖国家面临的长期挑战。But the unpredictability, and the resulting fragility, of some Global South governments will undoubtedly be the perennial challenge for BRICS.
这些挑战反映在许多金砖国家确实接受了西方的文化倡议。例如，就在昨天，巴西通过立法取缔同性恋恐惧症，允许任何仇恨或反同性恋“偏执”入狱。These challenges are reflected in the fact that many of the BRICS countries do tote Western cultural initiatives. For instance, just yesterday Brazil passed legislation outlawing homophobia, allowing prison time for any hate or anti-gay “bigotry”.
最终，西方世界正在崩溃。例如，土耳其和许多其他强国可能会在下一次峰会上成为金砖国家的下一个候选者。土耳其境内的许多人已经感受到了这种转变：At the end of the day, the Western world is falling. As an example, Turkey and many other powerhouses could be up next for the BRICS at the next summit. Many inside Turkey already feel the shift:
美国为所有人制造敌人，也为土耳其制造敌人。安卡拉被迫忍受未宣战的美国战争The United States creates enemies for everyone, and for Turkey too. Ankara forced to put up with undeclared US war
塔米尔·科尔克马兹表示：“土耳其与美国处于不宣而战的秘密战争状态，而美国实际上已成为其战略敌人。在这种情况下，与美国的关系毫无疑问将进入新时代。”亲政府报纸《Yeni ?afak》的专栏作家。"Turkey is in a state of undeclared, secret war with the United States, which has actually become its strategic enemy. In such a situation, there can be no question of a new era in relations with the United States," said Tamer Korkmaz, a columnist for the pro-government newspaper Yeni ?afak.
原因是华盛顿大力支持被土耳其视为恐怖组织的库尔德工人党叙利亚分支以及库尔德人民保卫军（YPG）。美国武装部队定期与他们进行演习并为他们做好准备。The reason is that Washington strongly supports the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, recognized as a terrorist organization in Turkey, as well as the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). The US Armed Forces conduct regular exercises with them and prepare them.
西方已经沸腾了。以下是“欧洲北约扩大委员会主席”冈瑟·费林格对巴西的威胁：And the West is already seething. Here’s the “Chair of European Committee for NATO Enlargement” Gunther Fehlinger threatening Brazil:
最后，让我们来解决一再出现的批评，即金砖国家是一个秘密的“全球主义组织”，因为它是“高盛的创意”。这是无稽之谈。所发生的事情是，2001年，一位名叫吉姆·奥尼尔的高盛员工写了一篇内部论文，指出巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国开始在世界舞台上发挥影响力，应该尽早允许他们加入七国集团而不是以后。这一政策建议似乎源于一种恐惧的立场，即如果西方不将这些国家纳入自己的羽翼之下，他们就会允许它们组建自己的集团，而这最终将导致西方的毁灭（多么有预见性）。Lastly, let’s address the repeatedly surfacing criticism that BRICS is a secretly “globalist organization” because it was a “brainchild of Goldman Sachs.” This is nonsense. All that happened was that in 2001, a Goldman Sachs employee named Jim O’Neill wrote an internal paper stating that Brazil, Russia, India, and China were beginning to wield power on the world stage and that they should be allowed into the G7 sooner rather than later. This policy suggestion seemed to stem from the standpoint of trepidation that if the West didn’t take these countries under their wing, they would allow them to form their own bloc that would end up being the undoing of the West (how prophetic).
他在论文中称它们为“金砖四国”，但这与五年后金砖国家的成立没有任何可证明的联系。金砖四国的简写名称可能已经流行起来，各国使用它可能是出于方便，或者仅仅是因为没有其他逻辑上可以称呼它，因为采用每个国家的字母就很简单。关键是，高盛与金砖国家的实际成立没有任何关系，也没有任何联系。他们的一位政策顾问只是在一份内部文件中将两个和两个放在一起并创造了“金砖国家”一词，仅此而已。下面是 2001 年实际报告的屏幕截图作为证据：In the paper he called them BRICs but this had no provable connection to the founding of the BRICS which happened 5 years later. The shorthand name of BRICS may have caught on and the countries may have used it out of convenience or simply because there was nothing else to logically call it, since taking the letter of each country just makes straightforward sense. The point is that Goldman Sachs had nothing whatsoever to do with the actual founding of the BRICS, nor any connection with them. One of their policy advisors merely put two and two together and coined the term BRICS in an internal paper, that’s it. Here’s a screenshot of the actual 2001 report as proof:
顺便说一句，吉姆·奥尼尔Incidentally, Jim O’Neill just had a 几天前刚刚接受了英国《金融时报》的采访，他抨击金砖国家关于共同货币的想法是“荒谬的”，并表示印度/中国的紧张局势可能会阻止这一想法。new interview尽管他告诫说，如果他们找到一种方法来协调他们的问题并真正创造出这样一种货币，那么这将是美元的终结。奥尼尔现在在英国查塔姆研究所智库工作。 with Financial Times days ago where he slammed the BRICS’ idea of a common currency as “absurd”, and said that India/China’s tensions would likely prevent it. Although he admonished that should they find a way to reconcile their issues and actually create such a currency, then it would be the end of the dollar. O’Neill now works for Chatham House thinktank in the UK.
因此，称金砖国家是高盛的创造，就像相信克劳斯·施瓦布关于普京成为“年轻的全球领导人”的幻想一样。So, calling BRICS a Goldman creation is like believing Klaus Schwab’s fantasy about Putin being a “young global leader.”
长话短说：Long story short:
顺便说一句，具有讽刺意味的是，巴西的卢拉是唯一一位与金砖国家的建立有关的现任总统。2009 年在俄罗斯举行的首次金砖国家峰会期间，他担任巴西总统，该峰会为该组织揭幕，而普京当时也不是总统——梅德韦杰夫当时接任了这一职务。当时中国由胡锦涛领导，印度由辛格领导。现在卢拉回来了，并主持金砖国家自那时以来的首次重大扩张。By the way, ironically, Brazil’s Lula is the only current president associated with the foundation of BRICS. He was president of Brazil during the first BRICS summit in Russia in 2009 which inaugurated the group, while even Putin was not president—Medvedev having taken the role at the time. China was then led by Hu Jintao and India by Singh. Now Lula is back and is presiding over the first major BRICS expansion since that time.
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让我们继续来看一些战场更新。Let’s move on to a few battlefield updates.
昨天，乌克兰对拉博蒂诺发起了新一轮大规模进攻，有人称其为第三阶段攻势。一些消息来源称，有超过 83 辆装甲车参与了一个巨大的纵队，但尚未得到确切的证实。刚刚发布了一些装甲墓地的新照片，以及新被摧毁的史赛克和其他车辆的确认：Yesterday, Ukraine launched a large new push attempt on Rabotino which had some people calling it the third phase of the offensive. Some sources claimed 83+ armored vehicles were involved in a huge column, but there have not been precise corroborations. There have just been some new photos of armor graveyards from the push, as well as confirmations of new destroyed Strykers as well as other vehicles:
他们深入拉博蒂诺，最终迫使俄罗斯军队放弃了这里。不过，随后俄罗斯通过小规模反击夺回了部分领土。截至撰写本文时，一些消息来源声称俄罗斯在定居点南部有存在，但这还不确定。事实上，与实际俄罗斯军事单位相关的 DontStopWar 频道似乎声称 AFU 甚至还没有占领拉博蒂诺的北部地区：They pushed down into Rabotino and finally made Russian forces abandon it. However, afterwards Russia retook some of it with a small counter-attack. As of this writing some sources claim Russia has a presence in the south of the settlement, but it’s uncertain. In fact, the DontStopWar channel associated with an actual Russian military unit seems to state that AFU hasn’t even captured the north part of Rabotino yet:
这是一张有用的地图，显示了俄罗斯在 6 月开始任何反攻之前的先前控制情况（白线）。紫色线显示乌克兰现在在西侧已经走了多远。Here’s a helpful map which shows Russia’s previous control before any of the counter-offensives began in June (white line). The purple line shows how far Ukraine has gotten now on this western side.
在这里，您可以看到俄罗斯臭名昭著的主要“Surovikin 防线”的起点比东部的 Vremevske 岩架要近得多。这意味着乌克兰距离Verbove镇很近。然而，俄罗斯在这里有更多层的苏罗维金线，而在东部，旧马约尔斯克下方，该线可能从更南边开始，但梯队层数较少。Here, you can see that Russia’s infamous main “Surovikin defense line” begins much closer than on the Vremevske ledge in the east. Which means Ukraine is very close to it near the town of Verbove. However, here Russia has many more layers of the Surovikin line, whereas in the east, beneath Staromayorsk, the line may begin much farther south but there’s fewer echelon layers.
更广阔的视野：A wider view:
此前曾表示，主要反攻目标已缩减为简单地夺取托克马克，而不是夺取克里米亚、马里乌波尔甚至梅利托波尔等不切实际的目标。如果他们能够拿下托克马克，他们会很高兴，并认为这是一次重大成功。It had been previously stated that the main counter-offensive objective had been downsized to simply taking Tokmak, rather than the unrealistic objectives of capturing Crimea, Mariupol, or even Melitopol. If they can take Tokmak they will be happy and consider that a major success.
因此，一些消息来源声称，新的重大进展将是最后的终极“装甲拳头”，突破第一线并向托克马克射击。这两种情况都不太可能发生。特别是捕获托克马克，在这一点上这是荒谬的。Thus, some sources claimed that the new major advance would be a final culminating “armor fist” to break through the first line and shoot down towards Tokmak. Neither is likely to happen. Particularly capturing Tokmak, which is absurd at this point.
但不要害怕——西方军事思想家声称一切并不像看起来那么可怕。But have no fear—Western military thinkers claim all is not as dire as it seems.
但他们已经可以用他们引以为傲的 JDAM、风暴之影、GLSDB 等覆盖所有这些领域。将所有这些都放在 HIMAR 范围内会怎样？HIMAR 不可能击中移动目标，因此在 HIMAR 射程内修建高速公路并没有多大作用。But they can already cover all this territory with their vaunted JDAMs, Storm Shadows, GLSDBs, etc. What would putting all that in HIMARs range do? It’s not like HIMARs can hit moving targets so having a highway in HIMARs range doesn’t do much.
作为记录，这里有一篇来自 AFU 单位的帖子，了解他们对拉博蒂诺当前敌对行动的最新情况：For the record, here’s a post from an AFU unit to see their side of the updates on the current hostilities around Rabotino:
早上好，亲爱的朋友们！Good morning, dear friends!
好消息给你。Good news to you.
?罗布蒂诺南郊的战斗。在某些地方，人们去了Novoprokopivka。? Fighting on the southern outskirts of Robotino. In some places, the guys went to Novoprokopivka.
?乌克兰武装部队已开始从Robotyne向科帕尼亚进发。这是为了避免击中我们的侧翼而进行的反击。到目前为止还没有任何进展。激战。但随后兽人就紧张了……? The Ukrainian armed forces have started to move towards Kopanya from Robotyne. This is a counterattack to avoid hitting us in the flank. No progress so far. Fierce fighting. But then the orcs got nervous...
? Verbove - 前进并反击以避免对我们的侧翼造成打击。? Verbove - advance and also counterattacks to avoid a blow to our flank.
? Nesterianka - 到目前为止还没有深入的进展，但是这个领域非常有趣......? Nesterianka - No deep advances so far, but the area is very interesting....
现在所有的主要战斗都发生在 Robotyno-Novoprokopivka-Verbove 三角区 - 托克马克方向的命运在这里决定。敌人和我们一样，把他们能找到的一切都扔到了这里——步兵、伞兵、海军陆战队、囚犯等等。这对兽人来说要容易得多——他们已经深入地下，进入了他们提前建立的防御线。这就是很难朝着Novoprokopivka - Verbove 方向前进的原因。 Now all the main battles are taking place in the Robotyno-Novoprokopivka-Verbove triangle - the fate of the Tokmak direction is being decided here. The enemy, like us, threw everything they could here - infantry, paratroopers, marines, prisoners, etc. It's much easier for the orcs - they have burrowed into the ground, into the defensive lines they built in advance. This is what makes it difficult to move in the direction of Novoprokopivka - Verbove.
兽人的飞机仍在继续运行，但这正在成为一种常态。有新的雷区，显然是兽人最近匆忙、随意设置的。The orcs' aircraft continue to operate, but it is becoming a routine. There are new minefields, apparently set up by the orcs recently and hastily, haphazardly.
我们正在工作，你的。We are working, yours.
不断有传言称乌克兰将在今年秋冬进行新的群众动员。There are continued rumors of new mass mobilizations from Ukraine for this fall-winter.
?尤里·波多利亚卡（俄罗斯分析师）谈乌克兰武装部队的状况：? Yuri Podolyaka (Russian analyst) on the state of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:
“我从战斗前线回来，与在南部地区俘虏乌克兰武装部队士兵的人交谈。 "I returned from the front line of combat, talked to the guys who captured soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the southern sector. 有明显的变化：现在他们经常投降，即使他们仍然可以战斗。心理发生了转变乌克兰士兵中越来越多的人真的不想以这种屠杀告终。基辅政权必须明白，事情只会变得更糟。There are noticeable changes: now they often surrender even when they could still fight. There has been a psychological shift among Ukrainian soldiers, and more and more of them really don't want to end up in this slaughter. The Kiev regime must understand that it will only get worse from here.
?转折点出现在六月至七月，当时乌克兰士兵开始意识到这就是结束了。俄罗斯人没有撤退。这让人想起德军在斯大林格勒所面临的关键时刻。?The turning point came in June-July, when Ukrainian soldiers began to realize that it was the end. The Russians didn't retreat. It's reminiscent of the critical point the German army faced at Stalingrad.
?乌克兰的新一轮动员可能会面临更大的社会阻力。?A new wave of mobilization in Ukraine will likely face much greater resistance from society. 虽然他们可以在六个月内招募20万到30万Although they could recruit 200,000 to 300,000 within six months，但由于提高了年龄，取消了之前的延期条件等措施。但这个队伍的素质会很低。他们中最优秀的人目前正在战场上死去。”, due to raising the age, canceling previous deferment conditions, and other measures. But the quality of this contingent will be very low. The best of them are currently dying on the battlefields."
以上内容的视频：Video for the above:
泽伦斯基似乎在两天前的新闻发布会上提出了一个问题，以便开始让社会适应新的群众动员的不可避免：Zelensky seemed to stage a question at a press conference two days ago in order to begin conditioning society for the inevitability of a new mass mobilization:
与此同时，据称即将辞职的雷兹尼科夫告诉乌克兰人，当他们在街上看到一名士兵时，他们应该很快就会在战场上取代他：Meanwhile, Reznikov, who conveniently is said to be resigning soon, told Ukrainians that when they see a soldier in the street, they should expect to replace him on the battlefield soon:
与此同时，MSM也在慢慢向社会爆料：Meanwhile, MSM is also breaking the news to society slowly:
请注意缓慢的下降：几个月前，“乌克兰的弹药即将耗尽”，现在已经变成“乌克兰的人员即将耗尽”。Note the slow descent: a few months ago it was “Ukraine is running out of ammo”, which has now become “Ukraine is running out of men.”
问题是，一些消息来源喜欢下面的报告，称乌克兰每月需要动员 1 万美元才能弥补损失：The problem is, some sources like the following report that Ukraine needs to mobilize 10k per month just to keep up with losses:
乌克兰每月必须动员1万人才能守住前线Ukraine must mobilize 10 thousand people every month to be able hold the front
“为了补偿损失（死亡和受伤），以及替换因健康原因、年龄和家庭情况而退役的军人，每月需要征召约1万人加入国防军。“In order to compensate for the losses (dead and wounded), as well as to replace the military dismissed from service for health reasons, age and family circumstances, it is necessary to call up about 10 thousand people to the Defense Forces every month.
这还没有考虑新部队的创建或后备部队的培训，”AFU总参谋部的消息人士报告说。This is without taking into account the creation of new units or the training of reserves, ”a source in the General Staff of the AFU reports.
因此，为了跟上这一趋势，So, in order to keep up with that 再加上plus增加足够的新员工来培养约 200-30 万的员工，这将是一项艰巨的任务，而且很可能是不可能的。 add enough new recruits to bring up ~200-300k would be a monumental task that is likely not possible.
斯拉维扬格勒的格列布·巴佐夫甚至声称面临以下可怕的情况：Gleb Bazov of Slavyangrad even claims the following dire situation:
监测乌克兰战略军事储备动向的消息人士称，他们没有离开之前的部署地点。这意味着乌克兰几乎耗尽了目前所有可用的人力和军事装备资源，将其送往前线。Sources monitoring the movement of Ukrainian strategic military reserves report their absence from the previous deployment locations. This means that Ukraine has nearly drained/exhausted all its currently available manpower and military equipment resources, sending them to the front.
这证实了我们之前的预测，即乌克兰的反汇率已经达到顶峰，并预计在 9 月份完全耗尽，很可能在该月的最后三分之一到上旬。This corroborates our earlier projection that the Ukrainian counteroink has peaked and is slated to completely exhaust itself in September, likely by mid to the beginning of the last third of month.
有趣的是，最近其他头条新闻揭示了美国领导层与非洲联盟联盟在兵力分配方面如何发生冲突。也就是说，西方领导人希望乌克兰“全力投入”南部方向，同时他们认为乌克兰向巴赫穆特和哈尔科夫北部前线注入储备是浪费和耗散的。What’s interesting is that other headlines have recently been revealing how U.S. leadership is clashing with that of the AFU in regard to the distribution of forces. Namely that Western leadership wants Ukraine to go “all in” on the southern direction while they regard Ukraine’s pouring of reserves into Bakhmut and the northern Kharkov front to be wasteful and dissipative.
The latest 纽约时报NYTimes article最新的文章是这样的： goes into this:
以及As well as 《华尔街日报》Wallstreet Journal：:
来自纽约时报：From NYT:
美国和其他西方官员表示，乌克兰的反攻行动难以突破俄罗斯根深蒂固的防御，这在很大程度上是因为乌克兰在错误的地点部署了太多军队，其中包括一些最优秀的作战部队。Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say.
这篇文章还承认了其他一些内容：The article makes some other admissions:
美国官员对乌克兰反攻的批评往往是从从未经历过如此规模和强度的战争的一代军官的视角出发的。American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity.
此外，美国的战争理论从未在乌克兰这样的环境中得到检验，俄罗斯的电子战干扰了通信和全球定位系统，而且两国军队都无法获得空中优势。Moreover, American war doctrine has never been tested in an environment like Ukraine’s, where Russian electronic warfare jams communications and GPS, and neither military has been able to achieve air superiority.
并表示乌克兰可能还有 4-6 周的时间才会出现降雨，运营将不得不暂停。As well as stating that Ukraine likely has 4-6 weeks remaining before the rains take over and operations will have to be paused.
现在，阿雷斯托维奇强调了这一裂痕，坦率地认为他也看不到无休止的巴赫穆特增援的逻辑：Now, Arestovich has underlined this fissure, candidly opining that he too cannot see the logic of the endless Bakhmut reinforcement:
几天前，扎卢日尼将军间接回应了所有这些抱怨，指出如果乌克兰将人员从这些地区转移到南方，就会失去这些地区的领土。当然，他们会在哈尔科夫，因为俄罗斯实际上正在那里进行突击行动。但在巴赫穆特，在我看来，俄军的部署不是重型突击队，而是第3军的防御部队。如果乌克兰在这方面放松下来，我怀疑那些俄罗斯军队会急于向前冲锋，而是会继续挖掘坚固的防线。General Zaluzhny days ago indirectly replied to all such complaints by pointing out that Ukraine would lose territory in those regions if it took men away from them to the south. Certainly in Kharkov they would, where Russia is actually conducting assault operations. But in Bakhmut, it seems to me the Russian force disposition is not that of assault-heavy squads but rather defensive forces of the 3rd army corps. If Ukraine were to ease off on that front, I doubt those Russian forces would eagerly burst forward but rather continue digging in to strong defensive lines.
几天前，当我发布一段俄罗斯近期唯一一次重大事故的视频时，这一猜测得到了证实。这场事件发生在克莱谢耶夫卡附近，正是那些试图转向进攻行动以扩大自己的区域以获得更多喘息空间的部队。他们似乎没有为这次袭击做好准备，因为他们被残酷地拒绝了，整个装甲纵队被摧毁，其方式让人想起早期的乌格达惨败。与此同时，哈罗夫地区的部队每天都在继续前进和成功进攻。This surmise was proven days ago when I posted a video of Russia’s only big mishap in recent times. It occurred near Klescheyevka by those very forces who tried to switch to offensive operations to expand their zone for a bit more breathing room. They did not appear prepared for that assault as they were brutally rebuffed with an entire armored column destroyed in a way that was reminiscent of the earlier Ugledar fiascos. Meanwhile the troops in Kharov region continue advancing and assaulting successfully on a daily basis.
但这似乎揭示了对巴赫穆特的一种奇怪的意识形态迷恋——不知何故，这个特定的城镇是But this seems to reveal an odd ideological obsession with Bakhmut—somehow, that particular town is 乌克兰领导层的个人化。personal我们可以推测其中的原因：最容易找到的原因也许是他们在很多方面流了最多的血，遭受了最大的羞辱。更有可能的是，正如我上次写的，他们嗅到了那里的弱点。西尔斯基在我曾经发布的臭名昭著的视频中表示，既然瓦格纳已经离开，巴赫穆特就不再有什么“可怕的”了——这只是一次提振部队士气的脆弱尝试。 to Ukraine’s leadership. We can speculate on why: the most readily available reason being perhaps that’s where they spilled the most blood and faced their largest humiliation in many ways. More likely, as I wrote last time, they smelled weakness there. Syrsky stated, in the infamous video I once posted, that now that Wagner had left, there was nothing ‘scary’ in Bakhmut anymore—a frail attempt to lift his troops’ morale.
现在——也许是为了满足自己对男性的迫切需求——乌克兰正在发布新的报告，称俄罗斯本身正计划在今年秋天进行一次重大动员：Now—perhaps to cover their own dire need for men—Ukraine is issuing new reports that Russia itself is planning for a major mobilization this fall:
乌克兰情报部门负责人基里尔·布达诺夫保证，俄罗斯自去年秋天以来一直在继续秘密动员The head of the Ukrainian intelligence Kirill Budanov assures that Russia has been continuing covert mobilization since last fall ，目前正在考虑增征45万人的可能性。and is now considering the possibility of additionally drafting 450 thousand people.
据他介绍，每月隐性动员可以给部队补充2万至2.2万人。According to him, monthly hidden mobilization gives the troops a replenishment of 20-22 thousand people.
上述有趣的方面是，他确认了“秘密动员”，但到目前为止，这种动员并不像俄罗斯官员不断更新的数字那样隐蔽。他声称每月新增 20-22,000 名士兵，这是俄罗斯大约 6 月或更早的数字。现在，如果您还记得的话，Medvedev/Shoigu 报告称，每月新注册人数超过 4 万。但这既不存在，也不存在。重要的是，就连乌克兰也承认这一点，这意味着宣传者和精神分裂爱国者没有余地声称“普京和绍伊古腐败”，并因为拒绝动员更多人员而故意放弃这次行动。无论是 2 万还是 4 万，这个月度总金额意味着每年有超过 25 万至 50 万新兵入伍。但当然这还不够The interesting aspect above is that he confirms the “covert mobilization”, which by now is not so covert as Russian officials have continually updated the numbers on it. He claims a 20-22k new troops per month, that was Russia’s figure from about June or earlier. Now Medvedev/Shoigu report upwards of 40k new signups per month, if you’ll recall. But that’s neither here nor there; the important thing being that even Ukraine is acknowledging this, which means that there’s no room left for propagandists and schizopatriots to claim that “Putin and Shoigu are corrupt” and are deliberately throwing the operation because they refuse to mobilize more men. Whether it’s 20k or 40k, this monthly sum represents upwards of 250-500k new men per year in shadow enlistment. But of course it’s never enough, the schizopatriots claim only 2-3 million new men is adequate and that all Russian citizens must be press-ganged into 18 hour shifts at the tank forge.
这让我们对未来 6 个月（直到明年春天）的前景有了一个粗略的展望。乌克兰可能会在冬季拼命动员尽可能多的新兵，为大家现在正在谈论的 2024 年俄罗斯春季大型行动做准备。但这个计划出了点小问题。早前发表的This gives us a rough outlook for the next 6 months, up to next spring. Ukraine will likely try to desperately mobilize as many new men as possible over the winter in order to prepare for the big Russian spring 2024 operations everyone is now talking about. But a slight hitch in that plan. The earlier posted 《华尔街日报》文章WSJ article 引起了热议，RT 甚至还登上了头条：generated buzz such that RT even headlined it:
也就是说，一位前美国官员告诉他们，明年的资金将逐渐减少，而改装 AFU 所需的“钢铁之山”根本“不存在”：Namely, that a former U.S. official told them that funding will be tapered off next year, and that the “mountain of steel” needed to refit the AFU simply “doesn’t exist”:
同样，有趣的是，有多少亲乌克兰人怀疑俄罗斯摧毁了多少乌克兰空军。例如，Oryx 臭名昭著的低估清单只有几十艘飞船（而俄罗斯声称拥有数百艘）。现在，乌克兰空军发言人尤里·伊格纳特On that same note, it’s interesting how many pro-Ukrainians doubted how much of Ukraine’s airforce Russia had destroyed. For instance, Oryx’s infamously undercounted list only has a few dozen craft (while Russia lays claim to hundreds). Now, Ukraine’s airforce spokesman Yuri Ignat 公开表示has openly stated，乌克兰需要多达128架战斗机来“替换旧机队”。 that Ukraine requires a whopping 128 fighter jets to “replace the old fleet.”
最后一部分至关重要——他明确承认他们已经损失了至少 128 多架战斗机，必须进行更换。使用可笑的 Oryx 数据，《经济学人》认为乌克兰失去了以下内容：That last part is crucial—he’s clearly admitting that they’ve lost at least 128+ fighter craft which must be replaced. Using laughable Oryx figures, here’s what The Economist believes Ukraine lost:
如果他们只损失了 60 艘，他们的发言人会说他们需要大约 130 艘来补充舰队吗？也就是说，俄罗斯自己的官方数据显示有近 500 架飞机，但很难知道他们的统计方法以及其中是否包含我们不知道的东西：If they lost only 60, would their spokesman be saying they need ~130 to replenish the fleet? That said, Russia’s own official figures show nearly 500 airplanes, though it’s difficult to know their tallying methodology and whether perhaps they include something we don’t know about:
例如，他们很可能包括他们在地面上摧毁的所有废弃/封存的飞机，据说数量很多（其中包括大量运输机，以及旧式苏联双翼飞机，如 AN-2 等），而乌克兰指的是特别是仅适用于现役可用战斗机。更不用说一部分可能会被重复计算，因为俄罗斯可能“损坏”了许多飞机，这些飞机随后被修复，然后在稍后的日期再次被击中/摧毁，这将在俄罗斯的统计中显示为两架单独的飞机。For instance, they are likely including all disused/mothballed planes they destroyed on the ground, which is said to be many (it includes tons of transport planes, and old Soviet biplanes like the AN-2, etc.), whereas Ukraine is referring to only active usable fighter jets, specifically. Not to mention a portion could be double counts in that Russia may have “damaged” many which were subsequently fixed and then hit/destroyed again at a later date, which would appear as 2 separate planes on Russian tallies.
回到不久的将来。最后一个主要问题是乌克兰官员预计即将到来的冬季将非常严峻：Getting back to the near future. One last major problem is that Ukrainian officials foresee a very grave upcoming winter:
?? 利沃夫可能长达两个月没有灯光——市长萨多瓦娅?? There may be no light in Lviv for up to 2 months - Mayor Sadovaya
“我们需要为利沃夫可能一个月甚至两个月断电的情况做好准备。当出现困难的情况时，对发电机加油和运水的需求将增加一倍。我们需要为非常困难的情况做好准备。”市长在市议会会议上说道。"We need to prepare for a situation when Lviv may be a month or even two without power supply. When there will be a difficult situation, the demand will be twice as much for refuelling generators and transporting water. We need to prepare for very difficult periods," the mayor said during a meeting of the city council.
去年冬天，当俄罗斯开展大规模基础设施罢工活动时，许多人认为这基本上是徒劳的，因为乌克兰继续修复其大部分能源网络，特别是考虑到俄罗斯只是打击变压器而不是发电厂发动机室本身。然而，最近我看到了一些可能相反的信息，比如一份报告指出，只有一小部分基础设施得到了修复。乌克兰今年早些时候夸口说他们仍然保持“能源盈余”，但评论人士指出，这在很大程度上可能是数百万人外流造成大城市能源使用净损失的影响。Last winter when Russia ran its large infrastructure strike campaign many believed that it was mostly in vain as Ukraine went on to fix much of its energy network, particularly given the perception that Russia was only striking transformers rather than the power plant engine rooms themselves. However, recently I’ve seen some possible info to the contrary, like one report stating that only a small fraction of the infrastructure had been repaired. Ukraine boasted that they still maintained an “energy surplus” earlier this year, however commentators noted that much of that was likely an effect of the exodus of millions of people leaving a huge net loss of energy usage in large cities.
不管怎样，俄罗斯方面不断有报道称俄罗斯有宏伟的计划。例如，扎波罗热州长在最近与普京会面后说道：Either way, reports continue from the Russian side that Russia has big plans. For instance, the Zaporozhye governor after his recent meeting with Putin:
巴利茨基在与普京交谈后，在秋季宣布了 SMO 方面的“许多有趣的事情”。据他说，俄罗斯总统证实了他的论点：Balitsky, after his conversation with Putin, announced "a lot of interesting things" on the SMO fronts in autumn. According to him, the Russian president confirmed his thesis: 我们还没有开始任何事情We haven't started anything yet。.
唯一的问题仍然是，俄罗斯会在今年秋冬“开始一些重大事情”，还是等到春天？一方面，我喜欢春天，因为目前并不着急，俄罗斯仍在为进攻建立储备和剩余弹药库存。The only question remains, will Russia “start something” major this fall/winter, or wait for spring? On one hand I favor spring because there’s no real hurry at the moment and Russia is still building up stores and stockpiles of surplus ammo for an offensive.
然而，在AFU最疲惫和崩溃的时刻（即今年秋天）发动攻势显然也存在很大的战略可能性。等待春天可以让他们开始大规模动员来补充兵力。很可能，他们会平分差额。今年秋冬，他们将发动规模较小的局部攻势，以利用那些遭受重创的 AFU 旅正在被撤出和替换的地点，而明年春天可能会带来更大规模、更统一的攻势。However, there’s clearly also great strategic possibility in launching an offensive at a point of the AFU’s greatest exhaustion and breakdown, which would be this fall. Waiting for spring could allow them to begin those mass mobilizations to replenish their forces. Likely, they’ll split the difference. This fall/winter they’ll launch smaller localized offensives to take advantage of exactly the spots where the most battered AFU brigades are in the process of being pulled and replaced, while next spring may bring something much bigger and unified.
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现在，让我们继续讨论普里戈任/瓦格纳的传奇故事，更新这方面的一些内容。Now, let’s move on to the Prigozhin/Wagner saga to update a few things on that front.
首先我们先抛开普京发布的视频哀悼：First, let’s dispense with the video condolences issued by Putin:
值得注意的是，在正常情况下，普京并没有说出我个人所期望的那种话。你会听到这样的声明：“我们将千方百计地搜寻，直到找到对此负责的人。犯下这种卑鄙恐怖行为的懦夫/胆小鬼/恶棍将被绳之以法，等等。”Noteworthy is the fact that Putin did not say the kind of things I personally would have expected, under normal circumstances. You expect declarations like: “We will scour the earth, leave no stone unturned until we get whoever was responsible for this. The coward/craven/villain who committed this vile terrorist act will be brought to justice, etc.”
这些都没有说。相反，这是一篇非常保守、彬彬有礼的悼词，充满了象征意义。普里戈任是一个“难相处的人”，他“犯过错误”等等。就我个人而言，如果普里戈任实际上被安全部门“放牧”，我希望这正是那种简短、谨慎、样板的悼词。None of that was said. Instead, a very reserved and mannered eulogy, fraught with symbolism. Prigozhin was a ‘difficult man’ who ‘made mistakes’, etc. Personally, it’s exactly the type of brief, cagey, boilerplate eulogy I’d expect if Prigozhin was infact “put out to pasture” by security services.
也就是说，仍然没有真正 100% 确认或鉴定尸体。他们已飞往莫斯科进行 DNA 分析，这促使许多人带着普里戈任实际上还活着的理论逃跑。诚然，我唯一可以相信的理论是，例如，像 SBU 这样的敌对外部势力试图暗杀普里戈任但失败了（炸毁了错误的飞机）。那么，That said, there’s still no real 100% confirmation or identification of the bodies. They have been flown to Moscow for DNA analysis, spurring many people to run away with theories that Prigozhin is actually still alive. Admittedly, the only such theory I could give an inkling of credence to is if, for instance, some hostile outside force like the SBU tried to assassinate Prigozhin but failed (by blowing up the wrong plane). Then 如果if普京有兴趣“保护”他的重要资产，他可能会责成国家机构掩盖普里戈任的死亡，让他存在于阴影中，这样刺客就无法抓到他。 Putin was interested in “protecting” his important asset, he may have tasked the country’s services with covering up Prigozhin’s death, to allow him to exist in the shadows so that the assassins can’t get him.
但这可能是荒谬的，因为无论如何，普里戈任必须在未来的某个时候重新出现才能开展他的业务，因此对他的假设威胁将继续存在。But this would probably be absurd, as Prigozhin would have to resurface at some point in the future anyway to conduct his business, and so the hypothetical threat on him would continue.
目前，我们所知道的是，普京突然颁布了一项新法令，要求所有准军事风格的部队，如志愿者和私人军事公司，必须向俄罗斯“宣誓效忠”：For now, what we know is that Putin suddenly issued a new decree obliging all paramilitary style forces like volunteers and PMCs to “swear an oath of allegiance” to Russia:
这似乎与之前迫使瓦格纳战士与俄罗斯政府签署合同的法律裁决不同。这更像是一次忠诚度测试，其时机很特殊，因为它This appears to be different than the previous legal ruling forcing Wagner fighters to sign a contract with the Russian state. This is more of a loyalty test, with peculiar timing in that it 显然appears旨在清除瓦格纳战士，他们可能会在领导人去世后质疑自己的忠诚度。 clearly aimed at weeding out the Wagner fighters who may potentially question their loyalties in the wake of their leaders’ deaths.
还有一些有趣的新更新。例如，俄罗斯将军尤努斯别克·叶夫库罗夫在普里戈任去世前前往利比亚和叙利亚进行谈判的信息：There were also some interesting new updates. For instance, the information that Russian general Yunus-bek Yevkurov traveled to both Libya and Syria just prior to Prigozhin’s death for negotiations:
谈判不仅仅是合作和共同打击恐怖主义。事实证明，尤努斯别克·叶夫库罗夫与这些国家的领导人举行了会议Negotiations were not only about the cooperation and fighting terrorism together. As it turns out, Yunus-bek Yevkurov held meetings with the leadership of these countries ，并坚持要求瓦格纳停止所有配套业务项目并撤出PMC的特遣队。and insisted on the winding down of all Wagner's supporting business projects and withdrawal of PMC's contingents.最重要的是，这一决定必须由叙利亚和利比亚西部政府独立做出，以转移俄罗斯领导层的负面情绪。 The most important part was that the decision had to be made independently by the governments of Syria and Western Libya to deflect negativity from the Russian leadership.
除了旅行之外的一切都未经证实，但可以推断；毕竟，他还要去那里做什么呢？Everything apart from the travel is unconfirmed, however one can infer; after all, what else would he be traveling there for?
因此，俄罗斯政府一方面试图与瓦格纳PMC谈判，使其主要关注非洲。另一方面，国防部试图说服利比亚减少瓦格纳军队的存在。它继续：So on the one hand, Russian government tried to negotiate with the Wagner PMC and make it focus primarily on Africa. And on the other hand, the Ministry of Defense tried to persuade Libya to decrease the presence of Wagner's forces. It goes on:
?独家：瓦格纳非洲轮换及与俄罗斯政府对话?Exclusive: Wagner's rotation in Africa and dialogue with the Russian government
我们的消息来源告诉我们有关瓦格纳 PMC 与俄罗斯政府之间涉及非洲和瓦格纳在那里的存在的谈判的有趣事实。Our sources told us interesting facts regarding the negotiations between Wagner PMC and Russian government that involve Africa and Wagner's presence there.
显然，就在据称PMC老板叶夫根尼·普里戈任(Yevgeny Prigozhin)飞往莫斯科的飞机坠毁前一天，与俄罗斯联邦的一个安全机构达成了一项协议。Apparently, just the day before the plane, on which PMC's boss Yevgeny Prigozhin allegedly was traveling to Moscow, crashed, an agreement was reached with one of the security agencies of the Russian Federation.
瓦格纳本应部分返回乌克兰，并进一步加强在非洲大陆的活动。Wagner was supposed to partially return to Ukraine and even more intensify its activities on the African continent.
因此，俄罗斯的想法是增加 PMC 在非洲的存在，并遵循瓦格纳和国防部之间任务分离的想法，使该组织成为俄罗斯在非洲大陆的主要军事行动者之一。So Russian idea was to increase the presence of the PMC in Africa and, following the idea of separation of tasks between Wagner and the Ministry of Defense, make the group one of the main Russian military actors on the continent.
这项协议是为了将俄罗斯国防部和瓦格纳分开，使它们专注于符合俄罗斯联邦利益的不同方向和任务，并确保它们不会相互重叠，以防止再次发生冲突和“兵变” ”。This agreement was made to separate Russian Ministry of Defense and Wagner, so to make them focus on different directions and tasks in the interests of the Russian Federation and make sure they don't overlap each other, in order to prevent another conflict and "mutiny".
请持保留态度，因为这又是来自 VChk-OGPU 的反俄宣传渠道。然而，我发布它是因为它在某种程度上确实遵循逻辑。Take it with a grain of salt as again this is from the anti-Russian propaganda outlet of VChk-OGPU. However, I post it because it does follow logic, to an extent.
其论点似乎是，最终解除瓦格纳武装并削弱瓦格纳的计划（大概是绍伊古推动的）是与瓦格纳达成协议，将其所有资源、重点和精力投入非洲，同时悄悄告诉非洲领导人开始解除瓦格纳合同，可能会用俄罗斯国防部的其他新 PMC 来取代它们。The thesis appears to be that the—presumably Shoigu driven—plan to finally disarm and weaken Wagner was to make a deal for Wagner to put all their resources, focus, and efforts on Africa, while simultaneously quietly telling African leaders to start unwinding Wagner contracts, presumably replacing them with the Russian MOD’s other new PMCs.
正如我所说，俄罗斯军事代表团在普里戈任去世前一两天Like I said, the fact that the Russian military delegation 刚刚抵达利比亚，just arrived in Libya这一事实似乎支持了这一想法。 literally a day or two before Prigozhin’s death seems to support this direction of thought.
更不用说这是由俄罗斯国防部副部长率领的第一个前往北非国家的俄罗斯官方军事代表团。他们甚至公开表示，其目的是围绕合作打击国际恐怖主义，这正是瓦格纳在利比亚存在的理由——显然，这个理论有其道理。Not to mention that it was the first official Russian military delegation to the north African state, led by Russia’s deputy minister of defense, no less. They even openly stated the purpose revolved around cooperation against international terrorism, which was exactly Wagner’s raison d’etre in Libya—so clearly the theory has merit.
一系列的事件似乎暗示着一场精心策划的行动，旨在斩首瓦格纳并“将其缩小规模”。The vast concatenation of events seems to imply an orchestrated operation to decapitate Wagner and “cut them down to size”.
顺便说一句，有趣的是，美国似乎一如既往地对这些事件了如指掌。在我的上一份报告中，我忘记提及美国国务院奇怪地发布了立即通知美国公民离开白俄罗斯的事实。注意时间戳：By the way, interestingly, the U.S. as always seemed to have a bead on these events. In my last report I had forgotten to mention the fact that U.S. state department curiously issued an immediate notice for U.S. citizens to depart Belarus. Note the timestamp:
他们预见到瓦格纳会遇到什么麻烦吗？Did they foresee some kind of Wagner trouble?
为什么白俄罗斯而不是警告离开俄罗斯？可能是因为他们早就多次警告大家离开俄罗斯了。And why Belarus and not a warning to leave Russia? Probably because they’ve already warned everyone to leave Russia long ago many times.
就此而言，一些观察家声称瓦格纳的白俄罗斯基地已经开始迅速清空。左为8月1日，右为8月23日：On that note, some observers have alleged that Wagner’s Belarus base had already begun rapidly emptying. Left is August 1st, right is August 23rd:
在白俄罗斯，他们展示了瓦格纳 PMC 的营地，那里的 273 个住宅帐篷中的 101 个已经被拆除。自本月初以来，帐篷已被拆除。In Belarus, they show the camp of Wagner PMC, where 101 out of 273 residential tents have already been dismantled. Tents have been removed since the beginning of this month.
图为营地全景对比。左边是 8 月 1 日的框架，右边是 2023 年 8 月 23 日的框架。The photo shows a comparison of the general view of the camp. On the left is a frame from August 1, on the right - from August 23, 2023.
另一方面，卢卡申科澄清了上述谣言，并对瓦格纳在白俄罗斯和其他地方的命运发表了以下看法：On the other hand, Lukashenko dispelled above rumors and had the following to say about Wagner’s fate in Belarus and elsewhere:
“瓦格纳生活过，瓦格纳生活过，瓦格纳将生活在白俄罗斯，无论有些人多么不想要它。我们与普里戈任建立了一个系统，瓦格纳将如何定位在这里。这些来自太空的图像，我们是拆除一些东西...为什么我们要拆除多余的帐篷 - 我们不需要那么多。这里仍然有一个核心，有人去度假，有人决定住在场外，但电话、地址、密码和这个核心的地址是已知的。几天之内，所有人都会到这里，最多一万人。现在没有必要让他们留在这里。所以他们不会跑到任何地方。只要我们需要，只要这个单位，他们就会住并与我们合作”——卢卡申科"Wagner lived, Wagner lives, and Wagner will live in Belarus, no matter how much some people don't want it. We have built a system with Prigozhin, how Wagner will be located here. And these images from space, that we are dismantling something... Why are we removing extra tents - we don't need so many. There is still a nucleus here, someone has gone on holiday, someone has decided to live on the sidelines, but the phones, addresses, passwords and addresses in this nucleus are known. Within a few days everyone will be here, up to 10,000 people. There is no need to keep them here now. So they are not running anywhere. As long as we need and this unit, they will live and work with us"- Lukashenko
瓦格纳的一位高级指挥官也附和道：A top Wagner commander echoed the words:
瓦格纳集团指挥官The commander of the Wagner Group亚历山大·库兹涅佐夫（更广为人知的名字是拉蒂博尔）发表声明：, Alexander Kuznetsov, better known as Ratibor, made a statement:
“我们不会去任何地方，我们不会放弃任何人，我们将保护俄罗斯人民直到最后。叶夫根尼·维克托罗维奇是我的同志和亲密朋友，他给我们留下了指示，告诉我们如果他走了，我们该怎么办——将会有一场正义的游行。普里戈任的指示和遗言，他遗赠给俄罗斯人民，我在我的频道上发表了，他爱俄罗斯…… ”"We will not go anywhere, we will not abandon anyone and we will protect the Russian people to the last. Evgeny Viktorovich was my comrade and close friend, he bequeathed us instructions on what to do if he was gone — there would be a parade of justice. The instructions and last words of Prigozhin, which he bequeathed to the Russian people, I published in my channel, he loved Russia..."
关于这个问题我想说的最后一件事是我在对上一份报告的准敬意中几乎忘记了普里戈任的事情。The last thing I wanted to say on the issue is something I had nearly forgotten about Prigozhin in my quasi-homage of the last report.
虽然普里戈任确实是一个“复杂”、充满活力的人，但事实上，他用他的智慧、残酷的幽默和魅力来诱惑和引诱我们，让我们忽视他的许多黑暗的越轨行为，以至于我什至几乎忘记了其中的一些。While it’s true that Prigozhin was a “complicated” and dynamic man, he in fact tantalized and seduced us with his wit, gallows humor, and charisma into ignoring his many darker transgressions, such that I even nearly forgot about some of them.
他利用自己的魅力，用一些关于弹药问题等已知陈词滥调的半生不熟的真诚反对来表达他的许多自私的抱怨。但有些人忘记了，他还吐出了一些令人难以置信的叛国和危险的言论，将其散布在这些“真正的”不满之中。Using his charm he couched his many self-serving complaints in some half-baked genuine objections from known cliches about ammo problems, etc. But some forget that he also spewed some incredibly treasonous and dangerous rhetoric, interspersing it within these ‘genuine’ grievances.
例如，谁还记得他声称整个SMO都是欺诈性的，根本没有任何实际的法律、道德或正义依据？For instance, who recalls when he claimed that the entire SMO was fraudulent and had no actual legal, moral, or righteous justification at all?
是的，他实际上说过，乌克兰并没有在 SMO 前夕攻击顿巴斯，也根本没有计划对顿巴斯进行任何此类侵略。而这一切都只是“寡头们为了互相致富而进行的宣传”。具有讽刺意味的是，我们后来发现，唯一从 SMO 中致富的寡头实际上是……他，因为他有无数的合同，为部队提供从湿漉漉的热狗到劣质盔甲等各种物品，他从中赚了数十亿美元。Yes, he actually said that Ukraine was not attacking Donbass on the eve of the SMO, nor planning any such aggression against Donbass at all. And that this was all just “oligarchs’ propaganda to enrich each other”. Ironically, we later came to find out that the only oligarch enriching themselves from the SMO was in fact…him, as he had countless contracts for supplying everything from soggy hotdogs to subpar armor to the troops, from which he was making a killing in billions.
据他说，北约对克里米亚的计划、2014年的事件和独立广场都是一场骗局，我想顿涅茨克和周边普利尤的数千名平民死亡肯定是那些发起SMO的“渣男”编造出来的。 ——从逻辑上讲，其中也包括普京。更令人愤怒的是，他在占领巴赫穆特后公开呼吁结束 SMO，并表示继续下去毫无意义。According to him, NATO’s plans for Crimea, the events of 2014 and the Maidan were all a hoax, I suppose—the thousands of dead civilians in Donetsk and the surrounding purlieu must have similarly been made up by the “scumbags” who started the SMO—which, logically, includes Putin. Add to this outrage the fact that he openly called for the end of the SMO after taking Bakhmut, remarking that it’s pointless to continue.
然后我们不能忘记他如何多次猛烈攻击巴赫穆特附近的俄罗斯军队，将其视为无用的懦夫，指责他们“逃跑”。更不用说有消息称普里戈任愿意通过他自己的 SBU 私人联系人向 SBU 提供俄罗斯军队的阵地进行打击，以换取 AFU 在巴赫穆特的一些喘息空间。并不是说我一定会相信Then we mustn’t forget how he repeatedly savaged Russian troops near Bakhmut as worthless cowards, accusing them of “running away.” Not to mention leaks which claimed that Prigozhin was willing to offer the positions of Russian troops to the SBU for striking, through his own private SBU contacts, in exchange for some breathing room in Bakhmut from the AFU. Not that I necessarily buy 这一点that，但也许只是因为我天真地不敢承认如此彻底愤世嫉俗的事情的含义。, but perhaps only because I’m naively afraid to admit the implications of something so utterly cynical.
你知道这在很多方面都是经典教科书的例子吗？一种叫做You know what all that is a classic textbook example of in many ways? Something called 煤气灯操纵的东西gaslighting。是的，尽管普里戈任有一些更好的品质，但他实际上是一位煤气灯操纵者和. Yes, in spite of some better qualities, Prigozhin was in fact a master gaslighter and 操纵者manipulator。他改进了一种绝妙的方法，实际上违背了俄罗斯的利益，同时对你进行了攻击，但以一种溺爱的父母的虚假关心来表达它。这种人会称你为笨蛋，破坏你所做的一切，然后给你洗脑，让你相信这一切都是为了你好. He had refined a brilliant method of actually going against Russian interests, while slagging you off but couching it in the sort of faux-concern of a doting parent. It’s the type of person that calls you a schmuck, undermines everything you’re doing, but then brainwashes you into believing it’s all for ，your 因为你把这些都归咎于自己的缺点。own good, because you brought it onto yourself with your putative shortcomings.
他多次嘲笑俄罗斯军队，指责他们对士兵来说是最糟糕的指控：懦弱。公开质疑整个 SMO 的合法性，将其重要性降低为一些无聊的寡头和腐败的国防部长的自我夸大的“噱头”。He repeatedly ridiculed the Russian army, accused them of the worst accusation you could levy on a soldier: cowardice. Openly called the entire SMO’s legitimacy into question, reducing its import to that of a mere self-aggrandizing ‘stunt’ by some bored oligarchs and corrupt defense ministers.
好吧，关于他我们还能说些什么呢？确实是一个很难相处的人。Well, what more can we say about him? A difficult man indeed.
一段具有象征意义的告别视频：乌特金像往常一样站在一边，在最近接受《瓦尔贡佐》佩戈夫采访时，吟诵着现在著名的一句话：死亡不是终结。普里戈任宿命般地插话道：A symbolic parting video: Utkin—off to the side, as usual—intones the now famous phrase that death is not the end, in a recent interview with Pegov of Wargonzo. Prigozhin fatalistically chimes in:
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最后一些杂项更新已按顺序进行。Some last sundry updates are in order.
关于贡萨洛里拉情况的未经证实的更新：An unverified update on the Gonzalo Lira situation:
总结细节：Summarised details:
- 贡萨洛·里拉于 2023 年 1 月 5 日被拘留- Gonzalo Lira was detained on 01/05/2023
- 他于2023年6月29日获保释- He was released on bail on 29/06/2023
- 他于2023年1月8日试图越境前往匈牙利并被拘留- He attempted to cross the border to hungary on 01/08/2023 and was detained
- 他未能出席 2023 年 2 月 8 日的法庭听证会- He failed to appear to his court hearing on 02/08/2023
- 他于2023年4月8日出庭，当时决定重新拘留他- He appeared in front of court on 04/08/2023, when it was decided to re-detain him
- 他的最初案件的听证会定于今天 2023 年 8 月 22 日哈尔科夫时间 1430 点举行- A hearing in his initial case was scheduled today 22/08/2023 at 1430 hrs Kharkov time
- 定于 2023 年 11 月 9 日举行听证会，试图对他的再次拘留提出上诉。- A hearing is scheduled on 11/09/2023, in an appeal attempt against his re-detention.
大约一周前，莎拉·西里洛（Sarah Cirillo）试图食言，暗示贡萨洛·里拉（Gonzalo Lira）实际上已抵达匈牙利，从而食言： A week or so ago Sarah Cirillo tried to renege on his earlier boasts of capturing Gonzalo Lira by implying that Gonzalo actually made it to Hungary:
回想一下，马克·斯莱博达等人曾声称他们自己确认贡萨洛实际上是被乌克兰安全部队逮捕的。Recall that others like Mark Sleboda had claimed they had their own confirmation that Gonzalo was infact apprehended by Ukrainian security forces.
下一个：Next:
还记得上周对切尔尼戈夫“剧院”的导弹袭击吗？据说无人机展览和外国情报服务会议就是在那里举行的？乌克兰声称这只是一次和平的平民集会。好吧，第一批真正的 AFU 士兵的讣告已经开始涌入：Remember the missile strike on the Chernigov ‘drama theater’ last week, where the drone exhibition and foreign intel services meeting was said to be held? Ukraine claimed it was nothing but a peaceful civilian gathering. Well the first obituaries of actual AFU soldiers have begun to pour in:
这位勇敢的战士是如何进入和平的平民集会的？How did this brave warrior get into the peaceful civilian gathering?
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俄克拉荷马州廷克空军基地发生了一些有趣的事情：Some interesting things have been happening at Tinker Air Force base in Oklahoma:
最值得注意的是，死亡事件被掩盖，家属不被允许调查原因。一些人认为，这些是在乌克兰操作基辅爱国??者导弹的美国 AD 人员的损失，现在已被黑洞化：Most noteworthy is the deaths are being covered up and families not allowed to investigate the reasons. Some believe these are losses of American AD crews who operated the Kiev Patriot missiles in Ukraine, now being blackholed:
今年俄克拉荷马州一处美国空军基地有17人因“各种原因”死亡17 people died this year at a US Air Force base in Oklahoma due to "various causes"
空军和基地的代表故意掩盖死亡的性质。《每日邮报》写道，泄露的调查片段显示，“今年发生了与基地相关的死亡事件，其中包括潜在的自杀事件”。Representatives of the Air Force and the base deliberately cover up the nature of the deaths. Leaked snippets of investigations show that "there have been base-related deaths this year, including potential suicides," writes The Daily Mail.
有一个版本称，当基辅防空爱国者号报道“匕首”被击落事件时，17名美国人在与班德拉约会时全部“反弹”。官方称，美国无法向乌克兰派遣军事人员，而且需要太长时间才能派出人员。因此，他们记录了 17 起与高超音速导弹到来同时发生的“自杀事件”。There is a version that all 17 Americans "bounced" on a date with Bandera when the Kiev air defense Patriot reported on the "downed" Daggers ". Officially, the United States cannot send its military personnel to Ukraine, and it takes too long to train Bandera. So they recorded as 17 "suicides" coinciding with the arrival of hypersonic missiles.
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这是为了说明一些事情。人们担心并声称乌克兰正在消耗俄罗斯的防空系统、雷达、反电池系统等。This is to illustrate something. There’ve been numerous concerns and claims that Ukraine is attritioning Russia’s air defenses, radars, counter-battery systems, etc.
过去几天的情况就说明了这一点。2-3天前，乌克兰在克里米亚成功对俄罗斯S-300部队进行了一次打击。此后，俄罗斯发布了以下视频：The past few days have been illustrative in that regard. Ukraine succeeded in one strike on a Russian S-300 unit in Crimea 2-3 days ago. Since then, Russia has released footage of:
俄罗斯 Su-34 发射 Kh-35 导弹摧毁了几架乌克兰 S-300：Several Ukrainian S-300s destroyed by Russian Su-34s firing Kh-35 missiles:
乌克兰 Buk AD 系统被柳叶刀击中：A Ukrainian Buk AD system hit by a Lancet:
乌克兰 P-18 雷达站是其赖以生存的重要系统，遭到《柳叶刀》的袭击：A Ukrainian P-18 radar station, which are their bread and butter essential systems, hit by Lancet:
一架美国 AN/TPQ-36 反炮兵雷达在这里被摧毁：An American AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar destroyed here:
还有几个 Strela-10 系统在过去一周被摧毁。这就是我正在谈论的示例类型。俄罗斯官方拥有超过2000个S-300发射装置。乌克兰摧毁了一个发射器，同时失去了约 10 个或更多其他高价值雷达或 AD 系统。我们在这里可以谈论什么消耗？俄罗斯军队在许多前线的消耗率似乎都是 8:1 左右。As well as a couple Strela-10 systems destroyed over the past week. This is the type of example I’m talking about. Russia officially has over 2,000 S-300 launchers. Ukraine destroyed a single launcher while losing ~10 or more other highly valuable radar or AD systems in the same time frame. What attrition can we speak of here? It appears to be the same 8:1 or so attrition that Russian troops enjoy on many of the fronts.
话虽如此，乌克兰确实继续从西方合作伙伴那里获得了一些有趣且令人印象深刻的新系统。当然，距离不足以跟上消耗，但有人看到一架这样的新型无人机以惊人的清晰度和跟踪敏锐度捕获了俄罗斯 Ka-52 执行任务的镜头：With that said, Ukraine does continue to acquire some interesting and impressive new systems from Western partners. No where near enough to keep up with attrition of course, but one such new drone was seen capturing footage of a Russian Ka-52 on a mission with startling clarity and tracking acuity:
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我想分享一张非常好奇的照片，它显示了乌克兰雷区的密度。据称，这是位于哈尔科夫地区的乌克兰雷区：A very curious photo I wanted to share that shows the density of mine fields in Ukraine. This is alleged to be a Ukrainian minefield in Kharkov region:
人们想知道为什么双方都无法取得进展。And people wonder why neither side can advance.
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另一个有趣的一次性事件：看看俄罗斯 Ka-52 在黑暗中的视力如何。过去有些人想知道为什么镜头经常看起来有颗粒感，但看看光学传感器所做的纯粹的光放大。左边是显示漆黑的常规摄像头，右边是 IR/FLIR 瞄准摄像头：Another interesting one-off: a look at how Russian Ka-52s see in the dark. Some have wondered in the past why the footage often looks grainy—but look at the sheer light amplification the optical sensors are doing. On the left is the regular camera showing pitch black, on the right is the IR/FLIR targeting cam:
它让人们对 Ka-52 摧毁 AFU 装甲的常见镜头有了新的认识。顺便说一下，官方统计是，6月份以来乌克兰反攻中被摧毁的装甲有40%是旋翼英雄完成的。这些东西是不可或缺的，而且价值连城。It gives a new appreciation to the oft-seen footage of Ka-52s taking out AFU armor. By the way, the official statistic is that 40% of the armor destroyed in Ukraine’s counter-offensive from June onward is done by the rotary-wing heroes. These things are indispensable and worth their weight in gold.
最后，值得一看的海上传奇。乌克兰增加了在黑海的攻击船活动。几天前，他们开始蜂拥而至蛇岛以东的一个废弃的俄罗斯石油平台。我相信这与乌克兰在 SMO 开始时已经用导弹击中并着火的 Chornomornaftogaz 平台是同一个：Lastly, a sea-borne saga that’s worth a look. Ukraine has increased its attack boat activity in the Black Sea. Days ago they began to swarm a derelict Russian oil platform just east of Snake Island. I believe this is the same Chornomornaftogaz platform Ukraine had already hit with missiles and set on fire at the beginning of the SMO:
现在这是由 3 部分组成的传奇故事：Now here’s the 3 part saga:
首先是一架俄罗斯 Su-30 的视图，据说这架飞机正在用 30 毫米 GSh-30-1 自动炮扫射船只：First, the view from a Russian Su-30 which was said to be strafing the boats with its 30mm GSh-30-1 autocannon:
俄罗斯声称摧毁了至少两艘船只。Russia claimed to have destroyed at least 2 of the boats.
现在这是从一艘 AFU 船上看到的景象，显示它们遭到炮火扫射并试图用轻武器还击：Now here’s the view from one of the AFU boats, showing them getting raked with fire and trying to return fire with small arms:
最后，乌克兰无人机的视图显示，这些船只实际上配备了便携式防空系统，并且并不害怕使用它们：And finally, a view from a Ukrainian drone which shows that the boats infact had manpads on board and weren’t afraid to use them:
乌克兰声称损坏了一架返回基地的俄罗斯战斗机，但俄罗斯否认这一点，并表示没有战斗机受伤。Ukraine claimed to have damaged one Russian fighter which returned to base, but Russia denies this and says no fighter took damage.
他们的海上活动非常频繁，不幸的是大多数人的结局仍然像这些人一样：Their maritime activity is high, unfortunately most continue to end up like these guys:
8月24日凌晨，乌克兰人再次试图在第聂伯河左岸“夺取桥头堡”。想在郊区独立之日取悦你的国王。但又出了问题。在戈拉亚·普里斯坦和卡尔达辛卡定居点之间，第聂伯罗集团的部队摧毁了乌克兰武装部队的“节日”攻击船。In the early morning of August 24, ukrovoyaks tried once again to "seize a bridgehead" on the left bank of the Dnieper. wanting to please your ukrofuhrer by the day of independence of the outskirts. But again something went wrong. Between the settlements of Golaya Pristan and Kardashinka, units of the Dnipro group destroyed the "festive" attack boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
直到下一次！Until next time!
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