以色列对叙利亚最担心的是什么

叙利亚记者、Syriana Analysis 创始人 Kevork Almassian 与我一起讨论特拉维夫智库 - 特拉维夫大学国家安全研究所发表的一份新报告。这份报告（希伯来语）的标题是Syrian journalist and founder of Syriana Analysis, Kevork Almassian, joins me to discuss a new report published by Tel-Aviv think thank - The Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. The report (in Hebrew) is titled “加强叙利亚军队——对以色列的威胁”。‘Strengthening the Syrian Army - a threat to Israel.

INSS 在其The INSS describes its mission on its 英文网站上描述了其使命English website：:

国家安全研究所发起并参与创新、相关、高质量的研究，塑造以色列国家安全议程问题的公众讨论，并向决策者、公共领导人和战略界提供政策分析和建议The Institute for National Security Studies launches and engages in innovative, relevant, high-quality research that shapes the public discourse of issues on Israel’s national security agenda, and 。在以色列和国外。provides policy analysis and recommendations to decision makers, public leaders, and the strategic community, both in Israel and abroad. 作为其使命的一部分，它致力于鼓励新的思维方式并扩展传统的机构分析轮廓。（强调已添加）As part of its mission, it is committed to encourage new ways of thinking and expand the traditional contours of establishment analysis. (Emphasis added)

报告开始：The report begins:

叙利亚军队在忙于“内战”十多年后，现在越来越多地将注意力转向宿敌以色列，并正在努力恢复在血腥战争中失去的权力。军队如何——在常规和非常规层面上加强——以及以色列应该做什么？After more than a decade of the Syrian Army being busy with the ‘civil war’, it is now increasingly turning its attention towards the old enemy – Israel – and is working to regain its power lost during the bloody war. How does the army – strengthen on the conventional and unconventional plane – and what should Israel do?

去年，在“内战”中遭受严重损失的叙利亚军队在该国的民用重建的同时，一直在加速重建，而且必然要付出代价。尽管叙利亚军队面临许多挑战，还远未对以色列构成威胁，但本文探讨了其强化努力，这已经构成了必须认识到的潜在战略威胁：在常规飞机-导弹能力方面，如无人机和无人机防空; 在非常规飞机上——化学武器攻击能力；并可能发展核能力。In the past year the Syrian Army which was severely damaged during the “civil war” has been undergoing accelerated rehabilitation, in parallel with the country's civilian reconstruction, and necessarily at its expense. Although the Syrian army faces many challenges and is still far from being a threat to Israel, this article examines its intensification efforts, which already present a potential for a strategic threat that must be recognized: In the conventional plane – missile capabilities, as UAVs and air defense; and in the unconventional plane – chemical weapons attack capability; and nuclear capabilities may be developed.

最后，文章将针对这些威胁，总结为对以色列的建议，主要是划定叙利亚激化的红线，并结合战争之间的战役活动 Finally, the article will be summarized in recommendations to Israel in view of these threats, mainly defining red lines for Syrian intensification, Incorporating the campaign activity war between the wars 

该报告非常值得一读，可以深入了解以色列情报和军事的运作以及如何分析和得出战略。Kevork 和我已经讨论了我们讨论中的要点，但我将在接下来的几天内重新讨论。The report is well worth reading for a far-reaching insight into the workings of Israeli Intelligence and Military and how strategy is analysed and concluded. Kevork and I have covered the main points in our discussion but I will be revisiting over the next few days.

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（谷歌翻译：What Israel fears most about Syria - with Kevork Almassian）