中投, 外管局, 温总看进来：美国经济离触底还早的很！

中投的，知道你们都是真正天才！
SAFE的，你们官大气粗！连温总都不放在眼内！
温总，知道你喜欢流泪！

那么看进来，不要抄底，早的很啊！
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http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=as5eaFiSGc5I&refer=home

Buffett Aide Sokol Says Housing, Economy Aren't Near Recovery
2009-05-28 16:17:48.492 GMT


By Michael McKee
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. housing market is nowhere near recovery and signs of stabilization are premature, said David Sokol, a top aide to billionaire investor Warren Buffett who oversees the nation's second-largest real estate brokerage.

美国的楼市离复苏还早的很。一切稳定的迹象都是言之过早。Sokol说。他是巴菲特的高级助手，负责管理美国第二大房地产经纪公司。


Sokol was among money managers who told an investment conference in New York the economy is still deteriorating and they don't have a lot of confidence in President Barack Obama's economic policies.
Sokol说，他对奥巴马总统的经济复兴计划缺乏足够信心。整体经济还在变坏，而不是变好。

"We're not seeing the green shoots," said Sokol, head of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., which owns HomeServices of America Inc. "We don't see improvement."
我们不会见到“春天的嫩芽“，Sokol说，”我们看不到改善“。

MidAmerican is owned by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, and Sokol is considered a possible successor to Buffett as head of Berkshire. Sokol spoke before reports today showed new-home sales posted their second increase in three months during April, and mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures rose to records in the first quarter.
（背景材料。省略不翻译）

Homes in the process of foreclosure are creating a "shadow backlog" of unsold properties that will continue to hang over the market, Sokol, 52, said in a speech yesterday at the Ira W. Sohn Investment Research Conference in New York. While official statistics show a 10- to 12-month supply of unsold homes, "we believe the backlog of homes for sale is twice that."

那些即将被清盘的房屋，将创造一个”影子供给”。官方数据显示，有10-12个月供过于求的储量；我们的估计是2倍于此的数量（--即大大超过官方数据的待清盘房屋）


Balance in 2011

Many people who want or need to sell their homes haven't put them on the market yet because the outlook for sales has been poor, he said. "It will be mid-2011 before we see the market in balance," with no more than a six-month backlog, he said.
还有大量即将销售的房屋主人，因为市场前景黯淡，而没有放到市场上来（---即如果这些房屋放上来，又会增加供给）。大概在2011年中期我们才可以见到市场供需均衡（---现在是供过于求），大概只有6个月的存量。

The National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that the number of previously owned houses on the market in April climbed 8.8 percent to 3.97 million, a 10.2 months'
supply. Sokol suggested government efforts to ease the crisis are actually drawing out the recovery. "We really need to let the economics work through the system," he said.

Sokol说，奥巴马政府挽救经济的计划，只会拖延经济的复苏。“我们真的需要让经济规律得到体现”

It is still difficult and costly for businesses to borrow, Sokol said, creating "headwinds" for recovery. He predicted the U.S. unemployment rate would rise above 10 percent from April's 8.9 percent.
Sokol说，企业借贷依然昂贵，这会给经济复苏带来压力。美国的失业率，会超过10%。

Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal who now heads the $2 billion San Francisco-based hedge fund Clarium Capital Management LLC, told the conference the stock market's recent gains will fade and the price of "long assets" such as houses will continue to fall, while Federal Reserve pump-priming will mean "inflation in all the wrong places."
Thiel说：近期股票市场的收益会消失，联储的刺激计划，会在所有错误的地方导致通胀。

Solving 'Wrong Problems' 解决错误的问题

The administration's economic policy is aimed at solving "the wrong problems" by trying to raise short-term growth instead of creating conditions to improve long-term productivity. "We've had phenomenal growth but median incomes have barely gone up since 1971," said Thiel, 41.
这个政府错误的行为在于“解决错误的问题”：试图刺激短期的增长，而不是改进生产效率。美国曾经有过很高的增长，但是平均收入自从1971年以来，就没有增长过！

That's because a drop in support for research and development means "there is far less happening than meets the eye" in science and technology. "Innovation is barely enough to keep up," Thiel said. "There can't be a V-shaped recovery until we fix the science problem."
这是因为，对于科研和发展的投入下降，而创新又不能跟上。在我们解决创新问题之前，不可能有V形的复苏。

Paul Singer, founder of the $13 billion hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. in New York, said he sees a period of volatility ahead, as "deflation, inflation and monetization clash over the next year or so." A rush to impose new regulation on the financial industry may backfire, Singer, 64, said. "I rue and fear this upcoming period of retribution," he said.
（省略）

'Back to 2006'

Greenlight Capital Inc. founder David Einhorn accused the Obama administration of slowing recovery by trying to "take us back to 2006" economic conditions through deficit spending and by propping up failing institutions.
Einhorn说：政府试图通过财政赤字和挽救失败金融机构，把我们带回2006年（---金融泡沫大量形成的年份）

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is "leading us down the wrong path" by refusing to force banks to recognize big losses in their portfolios and recapitalize, Einhorn, 40, said.
（省略）

Instead, Geithner is counting on banks to earn their way out of trouble as the economy recovers, a strategy that postpones expansion, he said. "Hope is not a good strategy."
Einhorn说：“希望”不是一个好的策略。

Einhorn, who announced at last year's Sohn Conference that he was betting against Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., criticized Geithner, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for their handling of the financial crisis. "Why wasn't more done between Bear Stearns and Lehman to protect the system?" he asked.
Einhorn这里谴责了美国历任财长。（省略）

Peter Schiff, who oversees about $1 billion as president of Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Connecticut, also criticized the combination of deficit spending by the government and a massive expansion of bank reserves by the Fed, saying they risk "out of control" inflation.

"We can't solve a problem brought on by too much borrowing and lending by more borrowing and lending," he said. Schiff, who forecast a debt-driven recession three years ago, said the Fed's purchase of many of the new Treasury securities issued to fund the deficit resembles a Ponzi scheme.
Schiff说：我们不能通过更过度的借钱来解决由过度的借钱带来的问题！

"I don't know why they got Bernie Madoff in jail," Schiff said. "They ought to make him secretary of the Treasury."

“我不理解他们为何要关押梅道夫？”，Schiff说，“梅道夫应该被任命做财政部长！”

For Related News and Information:
Stories on U.S. real estate: TNI US REL Stories on the U.S. economy: TNI US ECO Top Bloomberg News real estate stories: TNI US TOPR For housing and construction indexes: HOIN To track homebuyer affordability: AFFD GP For home foreclosures: HOMFCLOS GP For all hedge fund news: NI HEDGE

--Editors: Mark Rohner, Carlos Torres

To contact the reporter on this story:
Michael McKee in New York at [phone] or [e-mail].

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Anstey at [phone] or [e-mail].

所有跟帖： 

• 美国经济已经开始复苏,离下次触底确实还早的很！ -aa123- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/28/2009 postreply 17:36:41

• I give less than 10 years -thrawn- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/28/2009 postreply 18:46:17

• 含泪恳请中投、SAFE大才子们，不要抄底！ -FinAid- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/28/2009 postreply 17:55:59

• 霉倒夫应该任命为财政部长 -xmsrtest- ♂ (24 bytes) () 05/28/2009 postreply 19:29:31

• 这句话一针见血！只不过这次梅道夫的下家是中国政府！ -FinAid- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/28/2009 postreply 20:23:52