参照以色列的Paxlovid使用情况, 每1000个65+老人使用,可以减少15个老人住院。按照住院死亡大概1/5的比例,这里的住院应该是指国内的重症危症了。1000盒花费为230万元,可以减少住院费用15人x15万/人=225万元。其中15人的前期诊治费用没有计入但不会影响我们做出结论:P药不会给使用人群带来额外的医疗负担。
实际上我相信瑞辉就是参照了效费比定了药价。
更直观的好处是,使用P药,每一千老人,可以减少死亡3人,中国目前有2亿65+老人,如果80%感染但是使用P药,可以减少48万死亡.
Among the 2,484 patients over the age of 65 who were given the medication, two died. Among the 40,337 patients aged over 65 who did not receive Paxlovid, the death toll was 158.
In the over-65s age bracket, 11 patients who received Paxlovid were hospitalized, compared to 766 hospitalizations among those who did not receive the medication.
http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-04/12/content_5501508.htm?
截至4月6日,新冠肺炎确诊住院患者人均医疗费用达2.15万元。目前重症患者人均治疗费用超15万元,少数危重症患者治疗费用达到几十万元,医保均按规定予以报销。