模型有用SARS做标定，非专业，不知如何解读。

A comparison of the efficiency of transmission in this outbreak and in SARS outbreaks can be seen as well in simple comparisons of doubling times in each outbreak. In SARS, doubling times varied from 4.6 days to 14.2 days depending on setting (doubling time, Td=6.0 (1358 over 63 days, Singapore), Td=4.6 (425 over 41 days, Hong Kong), Td=14.2 (7919 over 185 days, overall)) (Lipsitch et al. 2003). Using the counts of confirmed cases as of 22 January (444) and assuming the outbreak began on 15 December 2019, we find a doubling time of 4.1. However, using our estimates of the size of the outbreak on 1 and 21 January (24 and 11,257 people respectively) we estimate a doubling time of 2.3. We note this is similar to estimates from the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong (Lipsitch et al. 2003).