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Our last two collapses were caused by some sort of bubble popping, first in tech stocks and then in housing debt. Lots of Fed officials see hiking interest rates as a way to discourage the next asset bubble. On top of that, the Fed has generally had to cut its interest rate target by at least 4 percentage points to fight recent recessions. If interest rates aren't back up to at least 4 percent or so by the time the next collapse comes, the Fed won't be able to respond.