按这篇research 文章的结论，疫情期间政府的严控基本上是无用功

https://www.statnews.com/2024/06/05/100000-models-not-much-was-learned-stopping-covid-19-pandemic/

引用一下律师的解读

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StatNews ran the latest bad news for the government’s pandemic response last week, headlined “100,000 models show that not much was learned about stopping the Covid-19 pandemic.” In the biggest, broadest study yet, they still can’t prove the lockdowns improved anything. Science!

 

The StatNews story was written by an author of a new study published in the Journal Science Advances, titled “Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models.”

The authors conducted a “multiverse analysis” of nearly a hundred thousand different computer models. The models compared government mandates like lockdowns, school shutdowns, and mask mandates, against local covid outcomes in cases, deaths, and excess mortality. They crunched data from 181 countries.

The result: 42% of the comparative models suggested stricter government responses improved covid outcomes, while 58% suggested that outcomes got worse after mandates.  In other words, they would have gotten better results by flipping a coin.

The authors, both in the study and in the StatNews article, were careful not to condemn anybody, or even label anything a ‘mistake.’ But the article’s conclusion sounded remarkably like the talk I recently gave to the National Association of Christian Lawmakers, where I called for government to embrace “truth, transparency, and trust:”