这次飞机故障，不外乎四个方面的原因：恐怖袭击、空中撞击、机械故障、人为失误。
第一，恐怖袭击
据安全部门研判，没有迹象表明该架飞机出事与恐怖主义有关[1]。
由此开始，所有的调查，集中在恐怖袭击以外的原因。
第二，空中撞击
根据机长介绍，飞机遭遇列对飞行的鸟，报告说double bird strike, 并报告说双发动机均失去推力[2]。由此，调查集中在鸟击。
事故的鸟击原因说法，遇到了很大的挑战。
首先，FAA要求飞机的重要部位，要能够抵抗8磅重的飞鸟击打。统计表明，每年发生5000多次鸟击，很少酿成事故。在过去的20年里，仅有200余人因鸟击飞机死亡。这种事故也多是通用航空的小型飞机，而不是大型的商用客机。[3]
其次，即便机长已经暗示是鸟击造成了这次事故，但官方对此仍比较谨慎。该航空公司CEO声明说：it was "premature to speculate about the cause." FAA发言人说there was no immediate indication the incident was "anything other than an accident." [4]
再次，对鸟击成因的重要挑战，来自雷达数据。对雷达数据的初步检测结果，没有发现鸟迹。[5]
最后，对鸟击成因的重大挑战，来自右侧发动机。经过对右侧发动机的检查，发现发动机的叶片全部完好无损。[6]
现在，飞机表面的有机体残留物已经提取，并送农业部进行DNA检测。[7]
第三，机械故障
飞机检修记录表明，此次事件的两天前，该飞机出现发动机压缩机停转的情况。[8]
有乘客指出，在听到机长说要着路不久，似乎飞机又恢复了正常。有专家指出，这符合压缩机停转的情形。[9]
第四，人为失误
这个比较敏感，不说。有关航空公司以及美国驾驶员协会，都阻止机长出来通过电视与公众见面，说明了问题的敏感。
避见公众，可以理解。但必需直面NTSB质询。
事故调查组的20人，经过一年左右的调查，一定会出一个令人信服的结果的。我相信事故调查组的职业操守。
让我们
拭目以待
[1] WASHINGTON (AP) -- Homeland Security and FBI officials say there's no indication that a plane crash in New York City was terrorism.
Jan.15, 2009
[2] WASHINGTON (AP) -- Airplanes chew up birds all the time but sometimes the birds win. That may be what happened Thursday in New York when a US Airways Airbus 320 made a crash landing in water shortly after taking off from LaGuardia International Airport.
Flight 1549's pilot reported a "double bird strike" to air traffic controllers moments after taking off, and said he had lost thrust in both engines, said Alex Caldwell, a spokeswoman for the National Air Traffic Controllers Association.
Jan.16, 2009
[3] FAA requires airliners to withstand strikes from birds weighing as much as 8 pounds at particularly vulnerable points along the aircraft, he said.
"It's a pretty significant problem," Poormon said. "There have been over 200 fatalities in the last 20 years due to bird strikes worldwide and there are 5,000 impacts that are reported every year."
Jan. 16, 2009
[4] US Airways chief executive Doug Parker said in a statement it was "premature to speculate about the cause." Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman Laura Brown said there was no immediate indication the incident was "anything other than an accident."
It was a chain of improbability. Birds tangle with airplanes regularly but rarely bring down commercial aircraft. Jet engines sometimes fail - but both at once? Pilots train for a range of emergencies, but few, if any, have ever successfully ditched a jet in one of the nation's busiest waterways without any life-threatening injuries.
Jan. 16, 2009
[5] In Washington, safety board spokesman Peter Knudson said preliminary indications from radar data of the plane's takeoff Thursday from LaGuardia Airport "did not show any targets" that might be birds. But investigators will keep looking, he said.
Jan. 19, 2009
[6] Investigators have seen significant damage to the tail and to compartments at the bottom of the plane that opened on impact. The right engine was severely dented but its fan blades were intact, Benzon said.
Jan. 19, 2009
[7] WASHINGTON – Investigators said Wednesday they have found the remains of what may be a bird in the engine of the US Airways jet that made a dramatic landing in New York's Hudson River. The National Transportation Safety Board said an examination of the Airbus 320's right engine revealed evidence of "soft body damage" and that "organic material" was found in the engine and on the wings and fuselage.
Samples of the material have gone to the Agriculture Department for a complete DNA analysis, the board said.
Jan. 21, 2009
[8] WASHINGTON – The US Airways jet that made a dramatic emergency landing on New York's Hudson River last week experienced an engine compressor failure two days earlier, according to the National Transportation Safety Board.
NTSB spokesman Peter Knudson said Monday that the board's examination of the Airbus 320's maintenance records show "there was an entry in the aircraft's maintenance log that indicates a compressor stall occurred on Jan. 13." The compressor, or fan, draws air into the engine.
Jan. 20, 2009
[9] CNN reported Monday that passengers on the Flight 1549 that left LaGuardia Airport on Jan. 13 reported hearing loud bangs followed by an announcement from the pilot that the aircraft was either returning to LaGuardia or going to try to land. There were differing accounts of the pilot's statements.
However, passengers said that a short time later the situation appeared to return to normal and the flight continued on to Charlotte, N.C., CNN reported. It's not unusual for a flight to continue on to its destination after a compressor stall if the engine returns to normal functioning.
Jan. 20, 2009
第一，恐怖袭击
据安全部门研判，没有迹象表明该架飞机出事与恐怖主义有关[1]。
由此开始，所有的调查，集中在恐怖袭击以外的原因。
第二，空中撞击
根据机长介绍，飞机遭遇列对飞行的鸟，报告说double bird strike, 并报告说双发动机均失去推力[2]。由此，调查集中在鸟击。
事故的鸟击原因说法，遇到了很大的挑战。
首先，FAA要求飞机的重要部位，要能够抵抗8磅重的飞鸟击打。统计表明，每年发生5000多次鸟击，很少酿成事故。在过去的20年里，仅有200余人因鸟击飞机死亡。这种事故也多是通用航空的小型飞机，而不是大型的商用客机。[3]
其次，即便机长已经暗示是鸟击造成了这次事故，但官方对此仍比较谨慎。该航空公司CEO声明说：it was "premature to speculate about the cause." FAA发言人说there was no immediate indication the incident was "anything other than an accident." [4]
再次，对鸟击成因的重要挑战，来自雷达数据。对雷达数据的初步检测结果，没有发现鸟迹。[5]
最后，对鸟击成因的重大挑战，来自右侧发动机。经过对右侧发动机的检查，发现发动机的叶片全部完好无损。[6]
现在，飞机表面的有机体残留物已经提取，并送农业部进行DNA检测。[7]
第三，机械故障
飞机检修记录表明，此次事件的两天前，该飞机出现发动机压缩机停转的情况。[8]
有乘客指出，在听到机长说要着路不久，似乎飞机又恢复了正常。有专家指出，这符合压缩机停转的情形。[9]
第四，人为失误
这个比较敏感，不说。有关航空公司以及美国驾驶员协会，都阻止机长出来通过电视与公众见面，说明了问题的敏感。
避见公众，可以理解。但必需直面NTSB质询。
事故调查组的20人，经过一年左右的调查，一定会出一个令人信服的结果的。我相信事故调查组的职业操守。
让我们
拭目以待
[1] WASHINGTON (AP) -- Homeland Security and FBI officials say there's no indication that a plane crash in New York City was terrorism.
Jan.15, 2009
[2] WASHINGTON (AP) -- Airplanes chew up birds all the time but sometimes the birds win. That may be what happened Thursday in New York when a US Airways Airbus 320 made a crash landing in water shortly after taking off from LaGuardia International Airport.
Flight 1549's pilot reported a "double bird strike" to air traffic controllers moments after taking off, and said he had lost thrust in both engines, said Alex Caldwell, a spokeswoman for the National Air Traffic Controllers Association.
Jan.16, 2009
[3] FAA requires airliners to withstand strikes from birds weighing as much as 8 pounds at particularly vulnerable points along the aircraft, he said.
"It's a pretty significant problem," Poormon said. "There have been over 200 fatalities in the last 20 years due to bird strikes worldwide and there are 5,000 impacts that are reported every year."
Jan. 16, 2009
[4] US Airways chief executive Doug Parker said in a statement it was "premature to speculate about the cause." Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman Laura Brown said there was no immediate indication the incident was "anything other than an accident."
It was a chain of improbability. Birds tangle with airplanes regularly but rarely bring down commercial aircraft. Jet engines sometimes fail - but both at once? Pilots train for a range of emergencies, but few, if any, have ever successfully ditched a jet in one of the nation's busiest waterways without any life-threatening injuries.
Jan. 16, 2009
[5] In Washington, safety board spokesman Peter Knudson said preliminary indications from radar data of the plane's takeoff Thursday from LaGuardia Airport "did not show any targets" that might be birds. But investigators will keep looking, he said.
Jan. 19, 2009
[6] Investigators have seen significant damage to the tail and to compartments at the bottom of the plane that opened on impact. The right engine was severely dented but its fan blades were intact, Benzon said.
Jan. 19, 2009
[7] WASHINGTON – Investigators said Wednesday they have found the remains of what may be a bird in the engine of the US Airways jet that made a dramatic landing in New York's Hudson River. The National Transportation Safety Board said an examination of the Airbus 320's right engine revealed evidence of "soft body damage" and that "organic material" was found in the engine and on the wings and fuselage.
Samples of the material have gone to the Agriculture Department for a complete DNA analysis, the board said.
Jan. 21, 2009
[8] WASHINGTON – The US Airways jet that made a dramatic emergency landing on New York's Hudson River last week experienced an engine compressor failure two days earlier, according to the National Transportation Safety Board.
NTSB spokesman Peter Knudson said Monday that the board's examination of the Airbus 320's maintenance records show "there was an entry in the aircraft's maintenance log that indicates a compressor stall occurred on Jan. 13." The compressor, or fan, draws air into the engine.
Jan. 20, 2009
[9] CNN reported Monday that passengers on the Flight 1549 that left LaGuardia Airport on Jan. 13 reported hearing loud bangs followed by an announcement from the pilot that the aircraft was either returning to LaGuardia or going to try to land. There were differing accounts of the pilot's statements.
However, passengers said that a short time later the situation appeared to return to normal and the flight continued on to Charlotte, N.C., CNN reported. It's not unusual for a flight to continue on to its destination after a compressor stall if the engine returns to normal functioning.
Jan. 20, 2009
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