今早写的：Every valuation mark is wrong."

Every valuation mark is wrong." — When the ultimate insider sounds the alarm.

On March 16, 2026, the "black box" of Private Credit cracked open.

John Zito, Co-Head of Credit at Apollo Global Management, wasn't speaking to the press. He was speaking privately to UBS institutional clients. He didn't realize he was being recorded.

His message? The private equity industry is sitting on a valuation mirage, specifically in the software sector.

The Core Issue: The AI Disruption Gap

While public software stocks have been re-rated downward due to AI’s impact on legacy business models, private equity marks have remained suspiciously stagnant. Why? Because in private markets, firms often grade their own homework.

Zito’s estimate for "wrong-sided" software loans?

Recovery of 20–40 cents on the dollar. Potential losses of 60–80%.

Why This "Insider Truth" is Different

We’ve heard the "cockroach" warnings from Jamie Dimon and the "garbage lending" critiques from Jeffrey Gundlach. But those were outsiders looking in. Zito is the ultimate insider.

When the person managing the money tells the people providing the money that the prices are fake, the game changes.

The Domino Effect is Already Visible:

The "slow bleed" has begun:

• Cliffwater ($42B fund): Redemption requests hit 14%; withdrawals restricted.

• Blackstone: Faced $6.5B in redemptions, forced to inject $400M in house capital.

• BlackRock, MS, Blue Owl: All facing mounting pressure to limit exits.

Why does this matter to YOU?

This isn't just a "billionaire problem." This capital belongs to:

• Pension funds

• Insurance companies

• University endowments

• Individual retirement accounts

We are seeing a classic "liquidity mismatch." Investors think they have stable, high-yield assets, but they may actually be holding a "timed-release" loss that only becomes real when the exit door gets crowded.

The Narrative from the Top:

Apollo's CEO Marc Rowan recently predicted an industry "shakeout," suggesting that while the industry survives, many individual players will "fare poorly."

In short: Apollo is signaling that they are safe, but the rest of the neighborhood is on fire.

The Bottom Line:

Valuations can stay "stable" on a spreadsheet for a long time, but they can't survive a collision with reality forever. We are moving from the "slow leak" phase to the "structural break" phase.

Are we looking at a localized correction, or is this the "canary in the coal mine" for a broader credit crunch?