比特币： 来看下周线图，我估计最坏情况是到60K -74.5K左右

Facts：

周线来看，上轮中枢的底部是74.5K.

上轮最高126K的MACD 绿柱明显弱于12.15 108K， 所以高位不成立，下降有道理。

现在这轮从红柱来看，下降趋势减弱，但完全可能继续下跌到200天线， 就是67K左右。

 

结论：

根据每枚的出产价（最低是59k)及power law来判断，我认为最坏情况是60K 到74.5K左右。

我本人已有准备，因为按照4年规律，去年10月就是这轮顶部了，已有减仓及卖大量的CC。

目前旁观，不会因为大跌而看跌，也不会因为大涨就看涨，尽量多方位分析。

金银这轮的跌和比特币走势非常类似，就是Wyckoff distribution 和collection的过程，目前金银是distribution的第一轮。我坚信比特币已经走完distribtion，从图形来看目前是MM collection的阶段。

 

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The overall cost for a miner to produce one Bitcoin varies widely but recently ranges from roughly

$59,000 to over $100,000, with electricity being the biggest factor, depending heavily on local energy prices and hardware efficiency. In late January 2026, average electricity costs alone were around $59,450, with total expenses hitting $74,300 (cash costs) or even $137,800 (all-in costs including non-cash expenses) for some miners,