Top analyst revisits Palantir price target ahead of earnings

Veteran analyst and investor Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle’s latest call on Palantir (PLTR) stock feels like a warning, rather than a verdict.

Guilfoyle just cut its price target on Palantir stock to $217 from $238, not because the fundamentals deteriorated, but because it’s heading into earnings with a lot less technical cushion.

I’ll be honest, things have been remarkably silent around Palantir, particularly from the usually very vocal CEO Alex Karp.

In fact, the last time I covered Palantir was over a month ago (December 15), and since then its stock has fallen about $17.35 (down 9.5%) to about $165.90 as of Jan. 23, 2026.
 

 

That quiet didn’t last long. 

Over the past week, Palantir zoomed back into focus with a major commercial deal involving South Korean shipping giant HD Hyundai, reported by Reuters, and a round of headline-grabbing remarks from CEO Alex Karp at Davos.

Though Karp’s Davos comments on shifting labor dynamics were pertinent, the HD Hyundai deal, in particular, caught everyone’s attention.

Despite scoring another massive commercial win, Palantir's stock is down more than 14.5% in the past month, and over 6% in the past week alone.

That’s why the Sarge’s Palantir take makes a lot more sense ahead of earnings.

 

Upcoming quarter’s earnings (FQ4 2026)

Announce Date: 2/2/2026 (Post-Market) 

EPS Normalized Estimate: $0.23 

EPS GAAP Estimate: $0.18 

Revenue Estimate: $1.34B 

EPS Revisions (Last 90 Days): 21 upward revisions and 0 downward revisions

Source: SeekingAlpha 

For perspective, he’s been trading on the NYSE floor since the 1980s, with over three decades of market experience, and he’s been spot-on with Palantir calls in the past.

Guilfoyle argues that near-term momentum seems broken, with elevated risk heading into earnings (Feb. 2, 2026), and that discipline matters much more now.

 

Guilfoyle lays out a conditional view on Palantir stock

Guilfoyle’s Palantir price target decrease ahead of earnings is entirely due to technical damageon the stock chart.

The obvious red flag is momentum.

Palantir’s share price has fallen below both its 21-day exponential moving average and its 50-day simple moving average twice in less than a month. 

These measures are essentially short- and medium-term trend markers, and when a stock can’t stay above them, professional investors typically reduce their exposure.

Another core measure in the relative strength index, which indicates whether buyers or sellers are in control. It dropped from neutral into weak territory. 

At the same time, the MACD, a momentum gauge, remains bearish. Its faster-moving average has recently crossed below the slower one, and hasn’t recovered since, underscoring the strength of the selling pressure.

These measures collectively resulted in a price target drop from $217 to $238. 

However, it’s not an outright bearish call. 

Palantir stock currently trades near $165.90, and appears to be stabilizing in the mid-$160s. If that area holds, a potential double-bottom could form (a reversal setup).

The key levels to consider are $187, the upside pivot if the stock regains traction, and the 200-day moving average, which is near $156 (danger zone). If Palantir stock can hold above it, the bull case survives, but if it loses it, the risk rises fast.
 

 

The commercial segment offers scalable upside for Palantir, with potential for repeat business and typically much less lumpy contracting than in government.

In Q3 2025, for example, Palantir showed:

Commercial sales: $548 million out of $1.181 billion total, roughly 46% of revenue. 

Government revenue: $633 million, roughly 54%. 

U.S. commercial growth: 121% higher year over year in Q3. 

Accenture, HD Hyundai, and the case for long-term Palantir upside

Though the stock’s stumbled, veteran fund manager of the StreetPro portfolio, Chris Versace, feels the recent pullback is more of an opportunity than a warning. 

He added more of Palantir stockfollowing the recent dip, lifting the position to nearly 3.7%, as he views the company as a long-term enterprise AI giant.

A big part of Versace's bullishness on Palantir is its growing commercial traction, with deployments starting small and scaling once customers see tangible returns. 

The HD Hyundai expansion is a testament to that, which he calls “a blueprint for AI adoption in the enterprise.” 

Also, more recently, the company’s selection alongside Accenture to develop and scale up “sovereign-grade” AI data centers across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, according to MarketScreener.

For Versace, these pertinent partnerships underscore Palantir’s powerful role as the foundational infrastructure for enterprise Al adoption