A comprehensive step-by-step playbook to Trump's tariff

1. On Friday, President Trump posts a cryptic message signaling tariffs on a specific country or sector. Markets drift lower as uncertainty rises. This began on Friday when Trump threatened tariffs on Denmark
2. Later that same day, or shortly after (in this case on Saturday), President Trump announces a large new tariff, often 25%+
3. On Saturday and Sunday, President Trump repeatedly doubles down on the tariff threats to apply pressure while markets are closed, maximizing psychological impact
4. Over the weekend, the countries targeted by the new tariffs typically respond publicly or signal a willingness to negotiate
5. On Sunday evening at 6 PM ET, when futures reopen (in this case on Monday night), stock market futures drop in an initial emotional reaction to the tariff headlines
6. On Monday and Tuesday, President Trump continues applying pressure publicly, but investors begin to recognize that the tariffs are not yet live and are still scheduled to take effect weeks later, such as February 1st
7. By Wednesday of that same week, dip buyers step in and spark a relief rally, but this move often fades and leads to another push lower. This is typically where smart money begins buying
8. On the following weekend, roughly one week later, President Trump posts that discussions are underway and that he is working toward a solution with leaders of the countries targeted by the tariffs
9. On Sunday evening of that weekend at 6 PM ET, futures open sharply higher as optimism returns, but gains fade into the Monday cash market open
10. After the Monday open, senior administration officials such as Treasury Secretary Bessent, appear on live television to reassure investors and emphasize progress toward a deal
11. Over the next 2-4 weeks, various members of the Trump Administration continue to tease progress toward a trade agreement
12. A trade deal is announced and markets hit new record highs
13. Repeat from step #1