贴个好玩的，ALL IN里四个人对今年的投资预测

原视频链接： https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEb2DX0TzKM&t=1s

Biggest Business Winners

• Friedberg: Huawei (specifically its partnership with SMIC to advance chip capabilities) and PolyMarket (evolving into a news source).

• Chamath: Copper (due to global supply shortages and demand for data centers/defense).

• Sacks: The IPO Market (predicts a resurgence of public listings and capital creation).

• Jason: Amazon (specifically for replacing human workers with robots/cobots to drive the bottom line).

 

Biggest Business Losers

• Friedberg: State Governments (facing financing issues and exposure of unrealized pension liabilities).

• Chamath: The Software Industrial Complex (specifically enterprise SaaS companies reliant on maintenance and migration revenue, which AI will disrupt).

• Sacks: California (due to wealth taxes and regulations driving business away).

• Jason: Young White-Collar Workers (struggling to find entry-level jobs as companies automate lower-rung tasks with AI). 

Biggest Business Deals

• Sacks: AI Coding Assistants (predicts a massive breakthrough in tool use and coding quality, akin to the chatbot hype of 2022).

• Friedberg: Russia-Ukraine Settlement (predicts the conflict will settle out in 2026 due to economic and political factors).

• Chamath: IP License "Workarounds" (predicts hundreds of billions in deals structured like the Microsoft/Inflection or Amazon/Adept deals to bypass antitrust M&A blocks).

• Jason: A $50B+ M&A Deal (predicts a Mag 7 company like Apple or Amazon will buy a major AI lab like Anthropic or Perplexity). 

 

Most Contrarian Belief

• Friedberg: Revolution in Iran (Ayatollas removed, leading to a democratic state) and increased conflict among other Gulf states (UAE, Saudi, Qatar).

• Sacks: AI Increases Demand for Knowledge Workers (citing Jevons paradox: cheaper code generation will lead to massively more software being built).

• Chamath: SpaceX will not IPO but will instead reverse merge into Tesla. Central Banks will seek a new cryptographic paradigm (distinct from Bitcoin/Gold) to hedge against quantum computing risks.

• Jason: US-China Standoff Resolved (predicts a working relationship established by Trump that benefits both nations).

 

Best Performing Assets

• Friedberg: PolyMarket (citing network effects).

• Chamath: A Basket of Critical Metals.

• Sacks: The "Tech Super Cycle" (driven by the economic boom).

• Jason: Gambling & Wagering Stocks (Robinhood, PolyMarket, PrizePicks, Coinbase).

 

Worst Performing Assets

• Sacks: California Luxury Real Estate (due to the "mansion tax" and wealth tax overhang).

• Chamath: Hydrocarbons (predicts oil drops to ~$45/barrel due to electrification trends).

• Jason: The US Dollar (due to increasing national debt and military spending).

• Friedberg: Netflix (if they fail to close the Warner Bros. deal) or Traditional Media Stocks (general decline due to independent citizen journalism)。