主要是需求没有增加吧。看看伊朗的产出如果能下降有可能再涨一点？

The increase in China’s oil inventories since the beginning of 2025 was 98.7 mb.

This stockpiling has largely involved discounted crude from sanctioned producers, including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, allowing China to capitalize on lower prices resulting from Western sanctions. As the world’s largest oil importer and primary buyer of these redirected flows, China has effectively turned geopolitical restrictions into an opportunity for enhanced energy security and cost savings.

The ongoing mass protests in Iran, which erupted in late December 2025 over severe economic hardship, skyrocketing inflation, and a collapsing rial, have intensified significantly in early January 2026. This has sparked numerous questions about potential impacts on global energy markets and oil supplies.I’m reposting this note (originally written in December 2024) for context, as the situation remains highly relevant today.As of now (January 10, 2026), Iran’s oil production and exports continue to flow at relatively high levels—around 3.2–3.5 million barrels per day in recent data, with exports still exceeding 2 million bpd despite sanctions. There have been no major reported disruptions to output or shipments yet, even as demonstrations spread nationwide, internet blackouts are imposed, and clashes continue.That said, the escalating unrest introduces fresh supply risk to the oil market. Analysts note that any further deterioration—such as strikes in key sectors, infrastructure damage, or regime instability—could add a notable risk premium to prices (Brent has already seen modest upward pressure toward $63/bbl in recent trading amid these concerns).

另外，石油价格保持低位是降低通胀的最好办法，TRUMP 治理下理论上应该不会有高油价。到65（60-70之间）我就很高兴了。