Barron: Bitcoin Bulls Are Blinking. 2026 Forecasts Look Soft

Bitcoin 

 

BTCUSD

+0.32%

 is mired in a slump. That weakness is showing up in tepid 2026 price forecasts.

 

Market sentiment about crypto has changed quickly. On Friday, Bitcoin traded at $88,476, up about 3.5%. But the token has been under pressure for weeks. After hitting an all-time high of more than $126,000 in October, it’s lost roughly 30% of its value. Year to date, it’s down about 9%, according to Dow Jones Markets Data.

Wall Street firms, even ones known for bullish attitudes, are cautious  about 2026. On Thursday,Citi Research issued a 12-month price target for Bitcoin of $143,000. While that sounds pretty bullish, it’s worth noting Citi also outlined a bear case, based on a weak economy and sluggish user adoption, of just $78,000.

It’s also worth noting that, as recently as October, Citi’s 12-month Bitcoin forecast was $181,000. So while its recent prediction represents significant upside from today’s price, it’s a retreat from just a few months ago.

London-based Standard Chartered has taken a similar approach, halving its 2026 Bitcoin forecast to $150,000 from $300,000 last week.

Even famously bullish tech maven Cathie Wood has struck a more cautious tone recently. Her investment firm ARK Invest recently purchased shares in a number of crypto-adjacent firms, including Coinbase, BitMine Immersion Technologies and Circle Internet Group.

 

All the same, in a November CNBC interview she dialed back her 2030 Bitcoin forecast from the extraordinarily bullish $1.5 million to a merely very, very bullish $1.2 million, citing growing competition from stablecoins, another type of crypto asset.

Should all this waffling have investors worried? In a word, yes.

While Wood was mostly concerned with the rise of stablecoins, both Citi and Standard Chartered built a large part of their case for 2026 gains on further institutional and Main Street adoption of Bitcoin,particularly by ETFs.

Asset flows tend to follow performance. If Bitcoin recovers its mojo, it’s likely investors piling into Bitcoin ETFs and other vehicles will give the cryptocurrency an additional tailwind. If that performance doesn’t materialize, there is a very good chance those flows won’t either.

In the worst-case scenario, they could reverse—amplifying any potential bear market.