very low (and sometimes negative) equity by design?

来源: 2025-12-17 08:39:39 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

1?? The #1 reason: Massive share buybacks crushed equity

Oracle has spent tens of billions of dollars on share repurchases over many years.

What buybacks do to equity

  • Buybacks reduce shareholders’ equity

  • Cash goes down → equity goes down

  • Retained earnings shrink

  • Equity can approach zero or turn negative

When equity is small, D/E explodes, even if debt is stable.

Example


 
 
Debt = 100 Equity = 20 → D/E = 5.0 Equity = 5 → D/E = 20.0 Equity = -5 → D/E = meaningless

Oracle hit negative equity in FY 2022, which is why its D/E was extreme then.


2?? Oracle uses debt as a capital-allocation tool (not distress)

Oracle deliberately uses cheap long-term debt to:

  • Fund buybacks

  • Finance acquisitions (e.g., Cerner)

  • Optimize capital structure

This is common for mature, cash-generating firms.

Key point:

Oracle’s debt grew slower than equity shrank.

So the ratio worsened mainly due to the denominator, not the numerator.


3?? Stable, predictable cash flows make high leverage manageable

Oracle has:

  • Long-term enterprise contracts

  • Sticky customers

  • High renewal rates

  • Strong operating margins

This allows Oracle to safely carry:

  • Higher leverage

  • Lower equity buffer

Credit markets price this in — Oracle still has investment-grade credit.


4?? Accounting effect: goodwill & intangibles

Oracle has made many acquisitions.

Result:

  • Large goodwill & intangible assets

  • Tangible book value becomes deeply negative

  • Equity looks weaker on paper

This inflates leverage ratios but doesn’t mean cash-flow risk.


5?? Compare Oracle to peers (why it looks “worse”)

Company Buybacks Equity Level D/E
Oracle Very aggressive Low / negative Very high
Microsoft Moderate Large positive Low
Apple Aggressive Low equity High-ish
Nvidia Minimal Very high Very low

Apple’s D/E is also elevated for the same reason, just less extreme.


6?? Why D/E is a bad metric for Oracle specifically

For ORCL, Debt-to-Equity is misleading.

Better metrics:

  • Net Debt / EBITDA

  • Interest Coverage Ratio

  • Free Cash Flow / Debt

  • Debt maturity ladder

These show Oracle is leveraged but not fragile.


7?? Bottom line (plain English)

Oracle’s debt-to-equity is high because equity was intentionally reduced, not because Oracle is drowning in debt.

Think of it as:

“A house with a big mortgage but very steady income — and the owner chose to keep little cash on hand.”


If you want, I can:

  • Compare ORCL vs AAPL vs MSFT using better leverage metrics

  • Show how buybacks mathematically destroy equity

  • Pull Net Debt / EBITDA trends over 10 years

Just tell me what angle you want