贴NVDA的分析

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1. Bottom-Line View

The AI build-out is still translating into extraordinary fundamentals, but after a two-year, 20× revenue surge the cadence is normalizing. FY-26 consensus now embeds “only” ~45 % top-line growth and mid-70 % gross margins, versus triple-digit rates in FY-24/25. At ~30× forward EPS the multiple already assumes continued data-center dominance yet offers little credit for China upside or next-gen Rubin. With the share pulling back 20 % from the August high and probing strong technical support at $170–172, longer-horizon investors get a chance to buy the leader at ~14 × FY-26E FCF while the story is between beats. Tactical risk is a break of the 50-day (≈$170) that could trigger momentum unwinds toward $160, but holding that band would frame recent action as a textbook bull-flag reset.

Conclusion: accumulate on weakness into $170 with an 18-month target range $210–$225, skewed by (1) Blackwell ramp execution, (2) any H20/Blackwell China licenses, and (3) 2026 Rubin disclosures at GTC.

 

8. Strategy & Implementation

• Core long: Add $170–$175; stop below $160 (mid-July pivot).
• Pairs hedge: Long NVDA vs. short SOX index or high-beta AI peers (SMCI, AMD) to damp macro beta.
• Options: Jan-26 $200 calls (~$15) financed by $150 puts (~$8) for inexpensive upside skew; roll if China license headlines surface.