Implied Probability of Fed Dec Rate Cut Surged to 90%

来源: 2025-11-26 03:44:59 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

This four-day chart—yes, only four days—illustrates just how violently the market has repriced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10. The implied probability surged from the low 30s to over 90% just an hour ago, and currently sits at 87%.
It is a remarkable move, made even more stark by the one-month view: the probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding. 
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability and predictability.