留言写的不错,但论据并不确凿,下面是我的3个counter points——
1, A $0.7 net profit per kWh would imply extraordinarily high margins (e.g., ~20x the electricity cost), far exceeding reported hardware profit margins of 75% in June 2025 updates. If it’s derived from Q3 FY25’s $148M revenue and $36.5M electricity costs, the implied profit per kWh for utilized power is closer to $0.10–$0.20, not $0.7.--- so $0.7 is inaccurate and misleading
2, On power capacity, the 3GW figure is accurate, however claiming a full 5GW pipeline in Sweetwater is overstated. Personal familiarity with the region (“这个地区我非常熟悉”) adds color but doesn’t substitute for verifiable permitting or interconnection timelines, which are notoriously delayed in Texas wind-heavy areas. --- can't just tell the rosy side of the story
3, The Microsoft investment narrative is prescient but incomplete. But framing it as CEO Satya Nadella’s “战略眼光" glosses over the broader context: Microsoft’s deals are part of a spree, including a $17.4B agreement with Nebius (NBIS) in September 2025 for European GPU capacity. This undercuts the “占领欧洲市场” (capture Europe) thesis for NBIS while downplaying IREN’s U.S.-centric risks like regulatory scrutiny on energy use. --- we need to understand the deals thoroughly before fantasizing it
