Summary of Tesla Q3 Earning Conference Call Q&A

1. The Affordable Vehicle / Robotaxi Strategy

• Affordable Model Outlook: When pressed on the long-anticipated affordable model (often speculated to be around $25,000), Elon Musk downplayed the need for a non-autonomous, regular low-cost car, stating it would be "pointless."

• Focus on Cybercab/Robotaxi: The company emphasized that its main focus for the next-generation platform is the autonomous two-seat "Cybercab," with a target for significant production (Musk mentioned at least 2 million units a year eventually). The implied message was that the future low-cost vehicle is essentially an autonomous taxi, not a standard consumer vehicle.

2. Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Regulatory Timeline

• Unsupervised FSD: Management reiterated the expectation of achieving unsupervised FSD (Full Self-Driving) capability on the existing fleet (HW3/HW4) sometime in the following year.

• Regulatory Approvals: They specifically addressed the regulatory landscape, stating they expect to get approval to roll out unsupervised autonomous driving in California and Texas first, followed by other states. Musk advocated for a federal approval process to simplify and speed up deployment.

• FSD Progress: The company cited substantial improvement in FSD safety metrics, expecting a massive improvement in miles between interventions compared to the previous year.

3. Financials, Margins, and Growth

• Gross Margin Pressure: Analysts expressed concern about the automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credits), which remained under pressure due to global price cuts, increased labor/input costs, and rising competition.

• Regulatory Credits: The decline in revenue from regulatory credits (which historically bolstered profits) was noted as a significant headwind on profitability.

• 2025 Growth Target: Musk provided a rough estimate of 20% to 30% vehicle growth for the next year, noting this target is dependent on avoiding negative external events.

4. Energy and Optimus (Robotics)

• Energy Storage Growth: Management highlighted the Energy Generation and Storage business as a strong performer, reporting record gross margins and calling its growth "gigantic" due to high demand, especially from AI applications.

• Optimus: Questions were asked about the progress and challenges of bringing the Optimus humanoid robot to market, including hardware engineering, training models, and supply chain. The company acknowledged that refining the robot's design and capability (especially the hands) for real-world application is a key focus.