Prediction markets expect additional Trump tariffs despite Supreme Court ruling
A sharp shift in prediction-market sentiment followed a major legal setback for President Donald Trump on Friday, after the Supreme Court of the United States invalidated a series of tariffs imposed under emergency authority.
In a 6-3 ruling, the Court determined that the administration overstepped its powers by implementing sweeping trade levies without explicit congressional authorization. The decision curtails the executive branch’s ability to rely on emergency statutes to enact broad-based tariffs, reinforcing the role of Congress in trade policy.
Despite the rebuke, traders on the prediction platform Kalshi rapidly increased their expectations that additional tariffs could still be announced in the near term.
According to Kalshi data, the probability that Trump will order more tariffs before month-end surged to 82.6% following the ruling. Earlier in the day, prior to the Court’s decision, that likelihood stood at just 27%.
The dramatic repricing suggests market participants believe the administration may pursue alternative legal avenues or narrower trade measures in response to the decision. The divergence between the Court’s ruling and trader expectations underscores ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the potential for further volatility in global markets.
