原文链接：
An Energy Truce Agreement As A Strategic Blackmail
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Kyiv – As President Volodymyr Zelensky explained yesterday, the so-called«energy truce agreement» is not the result of direct dialogue but of American mediation. Therefore, «as long as Russia does not strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Ukraine will not strike Russian infrastructure».
Although technically possible, the idea of an energy ceasefire is strategically incompatible with Russia’s current posture. Moscow uses energy not as an isolated military objective but as an instrument of systemic coercion: it pressures Ukraine’s civilian population and strains its air defenses, forcing them to consume a high level of interceptors, with the aim of politically weakening it both internally and in external relations with its partners. Weather forecasts indicate an imminent new drop, with Arctic temperatures approaching 30 degrees below zero just as the so-called «energy ceasefire» ends, and will remain so for the entire coming week. To be precise, according to data from the Ukrhidromettsentr, the expected minimum temperature between February 1st and 3rd will be -28°C, and in Kyiv, the maximum temperatures will reach -24°C at night.
Halting the attack before the peak of frostbite would mean Moscow forgoing the maximum strategic benefit of the attack. This is also why Ukrainian intelligence is openly discussing preparations for a new attack. In this sense, the ‘truce’ leaked by Moscow through Vladimir Putin and relaunched in the political and media circuit involving Donald Trump does not appear to be a concession at all, but rather informational cover useful for lowering the international alert threshold and creating political ambiguity in the West, with the aim of buying time to synchronize vectors, weather, and the buildup of forces.
The activation of the state of preparedness in Lviv announced by Mayor Andryj Sadovy is not a symbolic gesture but a response to concrete indicators: intelligence, previous attack patterns, and weather forecasts.
The words of Deputy Prime Minister Oleksy Kuleba are even more revealing: «Ukrainian energy system is fragile and already working at its limit; the cold makes repairs long and difficult, and the severe shortage of interceptors further reduces the margin for error».
In this regard, and as proof of what I denounced in these pages last week, Zelensky also posed a question yesterday: why were the Patriot PAC-3 interceptors – not ‘donated’ but paid for by Ukraine’s European partners – delivered by the US to Kyiv the day after the most devastating Russian strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure? Zelensky explained that he had been informed of the impending Russian ballistic missile strike and had begged for those missiles because the defenses were exposed.
Therefore, the Americans were aware of the urgency of restoring Ukraine’s defenses, which were understaffed in anticipation of a brutal Russian attack like that. Yet, they cynically delivered the precious cargo – paid handsomely by Ukraine’s European partners – the very day after it occurred, bringing the country’s energy system to its knees.
The picture on the eastern front is even clearer: the Russians are amassing troops near the Serebriansk forest and toward Siversk and Dronivka, with attempts to cross the Siversky Donets’ River. Units of the 81st Ukrainian Airmobile Brigade intercept enemy movements day and night, inflicting losses while confirming a massing of enemy troops.
Consistent with this, Moscow is therefore using the freezing temperatures as cover for a ground assault.
If credible negotiations were truly underway, we would not see this level of preventive alert, attack scenarios would not be publicly anticipated, and we would not see a Head of State publicly denouncing that the means to defend his country arrive only after the damage has been inflicted.
In this context, the idea of ??a US-mediated «energy truce» appears for what it is: not a stabilization measure but a narrative device. While a ceasefire is discussed, interceptors are delayed; while de-escalation is invoked, Moscow is allowed to strike at the moment of maximum climate and infrastructure vulnerability. Energy thus becomes the battlefield where two forces of coercion overlap: the Russian one, cynical and overt; and the American one, more subtle but no less decisive.
It should also be clarified why an energy truce, if applied symmetrically, would disproportionately favor the Russian Federation. In recent months, selective Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, depots, and energy distribution hubs have caused immediate and measurable economic damage, affecting refining capacity, fuel exports, and domestic tax flows. In terms of intensity and speed, these effects have been more significant than those of Western sanctions, which are often circumventable or spread out over time. Freezing this pressure would restore Moscow’s margins for industrial and financial recovery, stabilize the energy revenues that directly fuel the war effort, and reduce one of the few asymmetric tools with which Kyiv has managed to strike at the economic heart of the Russian war machine.
Since the farce trumpeted as a success by Putin’s spokesman in Washington, Donald Trump, went into effect, Ukrainian police have received over 2,000 reports of bomb threats in Kyiv and nearly all regions: Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, and Chernihiv. Government agencies, schools, and businesses were reportedly mined, bringing virtually the entire country to a standstill.
Meanwhile, Moscow refocused its attacks on Ukrainian logistics, also striking an American company in Kharkiv and a bus carrying passengers in Kherson.
Truly a ‘success’. Made in the USA.
The continuous blackouts severely damaged the heating system of our house in Western Ukraine while we were in Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldn’t circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesn’t work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Alla’s parents live there, but there’s still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
We’re renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins to help us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. We’ll keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, friends
能源停火协议：一种战略性勒索
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道
基辅 — 正如总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基昨日所解释的，所谓的“能源停火协议”并非直接对话的产物，而是美国居间斡旋的结果。因此，“只要俄罗斯不打击乌克兰的能源基础设施，乌克兰就不会打击俄罗斯的基础设施”。
尽管从技术上可行，但能源停火的想法与俄罗斯当前的姿态在战略上并不兼容。莫斯科并不把能源当作孤立的军事目标来使用，而是作为一种系统性胁迫工具：它向乌克兰平民施压并牵制其防空力量，迫使其消耗大量拦截弹，以期在国内和对外关系上从政治上削弱乌克兰。天气预报显示将有新一轮降温即将来临，北极气温接近零下30度，而所谓的“能源停火”恰在此时结束，并将在接下来的一周内持续低温。准确地说，根据乌克兰水文气象中心的数据，预计2月1日至3日的最低气温将达到-28°C，而在基辅，夜间最低气温将降至约-24°C。
（图片来源：RBK）
（图片提供：Ukrhidromettsentr）
在严寒高峰到来之前停止打击，就意味着莫斯科会放弃此轮打击可获得的最大战略收益。这也是为何乌克兰情报机构公开讨论为新一轮打击做准备的原因。从这个意义上说，通过弗拉基米尔·普京泄露并在涉及唐纳德·川普的政治与媒体圈子里被再次炒作“停火”，根本不是让步，反倒像是一种信息掩护，用以降低国际警觉阈值并在西方制造政治模糊，从而争取时间以同步作战、天气与兵力集结。
（图：我在撰写本文前不久在基辅拍摄了这张照片。牌匾写着“荣耀属于乌克兰英雄”——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
利沃夫市长安德里·萨多维宣布启动战备状态，这并非象征性举动，而是对具体指标的回应：情报信息、以往攻击模式与天气预报。
副总理奥列克西·库列巴的话更具说明性：“乌克兰的能源系统脆弱且已运转在极限；严寒使维修漫长而艰难，拦截弹的严重短缺进一步缩小了容错空间。”
在这方面，正如我上周在本刊揭示的，泽连斯基昨日也提出了一个问题：为何那些由乌克兰的欧洲伙伴支付、并非“捐赠”的爱国者PAC-3拦截弹，竟在对乌克兰能源基础设施造成最具破坏性的一轮俄方打击后的第二天，才由美国交付给基辅？泽连斯基解释说，他早已获悉即将发生的俄方弹道导弹打击，并恳求提供这些导弹拦截器，因为防御当时暴露无遗。
因此，美国方面非常了解恢复乌克兰防御力量的紧迫性，而当时乌克兰在面临类似如此残酷的俄方攻击前防御人手不足。然而，美国冷血地在打击发生后的第二天才交付这批由乌克兰欧洲伙伴高价购买的珍贵货物，使该国的能源系统陷入瘫痪。
（图片来源：Clash Report 在“X”上的发布）
东线的形势更为清晰：俄军正在塞列布里安斯克森林附近及向西弗尔斯克与德罗尼夫卡方向集结部队，并试图渡过西弗尔斯基顿涅茨河。乌克兰第81空降旅的部队昼夜拦截敌方行动，给予打击的同时也确认了敌军的集结态势。
与此相符，莫斯科正利用极寒天气作为地面攻势的掩护。
（图：Alla从战壕向外望去——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
若真有可信的谈判在进行，我们不会看到如此程度的预防性警戒；攻击情景也不会被公开预告；国家元首也不会公开控诉保卫国家的手段在损害发生后才到位。
在这种情境下，由美国居中斡旋的“能源停火”暴露出其本质：它并非一种稳定化措施，而是一种叙事工具。在讨论停火的同时，拦截弹被延迟；在呼吁缓和的同时，莫斯科被允许在气候与基础设施最脆弱之时发起攻击。于是，能源成为两股胁迫力量交汇的战场：一股是冷酷且公开的俄方胁迫；另一股是更为巧妙但同样具有决定性的美方胁迫。
（图：我昨日在基辅霍斯托梅尔拍下了这张极具冲击力的照片 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
还需说明的是，即便对称性地实施能源停火，也会不成比例地有利于俄罗斯。近几个月来，乌克兰对俄方炼油厂、油库和能源分配枢纽的选择性打击已造成直接且可量化的经济损失，影响了炼油能力、燃料出口与国内税收流入。在强度与速度上，这些影响比西方制裁更为显著——后者往往可被规避或效果延迟。冻结这种压力将恢复莫斯科的工业与财政复原空间，稳定直接支撑战争的能源收入，并削弱基辅为数不多能够有效地打击俄国战争机器经济命脉的非对称工具之一。
自普京在华盛顿的发言人，唐纳德川普所吹嘘的“成功”的闹剧生效以来，乌克兰警方在基辅及几乎所有地区已接获超2000起炸弹威胁举报：文尼察、沃伦、第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克、顿涅茨克、外喀尔巴阡、扎波罗热、伊万诺?弗兰科夫斯克、基洛沃格勒、利沃夫、尼古拉耶夫、敖德萨、波尔塔瓦、里夫内、苏梅、捷尔诺波尔、哈尔科夫、赫梅利尼茨基、切尔卡瑟、切尔尼戈夫。有报告政府机构、学校和企业被安置了炸弹，几乎使整个国家陷入停摆。
与此同时，莫斯科将攻击重心转向乌克兰后勤体系，还袭击了位于哈尔科夫的一家美国公司以及在赫尔松一辆载客公交车。
确实是“一次成功”。美式制造。
（图：我在撰写本文前片刻在基辅拍下的这张照片——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
持续的停电严重损坏了我们在乌克兰西部的家中的供暖系统，而我们当时就在顿巴斯。
没有电，点着的炉火无法通过水泵循环热水。结果，系统起火，整个房子面临着烧毁的风险。幸而未被烧毁，但整个系统需要更换，房子也需要修复。管道都是歪的，墙壁被烟雾熏黑，供暖系统无法正常工作，需要彻底更换。
我们正在尽最大努力，因为Alla的父母住在那里，但这里还有许多工作要做，周围的人处境也好不到哪儿去。
我们正在重启筹款活动，感谢每一位支持我们修复被俄罗斯摧毁一切的朋友。即使是小额捐款也有帮助。我们会及时更新进展。
感谢大家，朋友们。
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