While the Venezuelan military failed to prevent the lightning special forces raid that captured President Maduro, they retain significant capabilities for resisting a long-term U.S. occupation. Their strategy currently focuses on
asymmetric warfare rather than a direct conventional confrontation they cannot win. 1. Shift to Asymmetric and Guerrilla Warfare
The Venezuelan military's operational doctrine is designed to "survive the first blows" and then disperse into smaller units to fight as a guerrilla force.
- Urban Resistance: Forces have trained specifically for urban warfare in the shantytowns of Caracas to make any U.S. ground operation extremely costly.
- Militia Network: While the claim of 8 million members is disputed, a "territorial defense network" of roughly 1 million armed civilians and reservists exists to create disorder and resist foreign presence.
- Paramilitary Groups: Pro-government armed cells known as colectivos function as urban enforcers and could be used to sabotage infrastructure or target U.S. personnel.
2. Remaining Institutional Power
The government structure has not collapsed despite Maduro's extraction:
- Leadership Continuity: Vice President Delcy Rodríguez remains in Caracas, appearing on state television with military leaders to demand Maduro's release.
- Control of the Capital: The military and national guard remain deployed throughout Caracas and major installations.
- Internal Security: The regime's dense counter-intelligence network—supported by Cuban advisors—remains active in identifying and suppressing internal dissent or U.S.-aligned opposition.
3. Conventional Limitations
The military was unable to stop the initial U.S. strikes because its conventional assets are severely degraded:
- Air Defenses: U.S. forces reportedly "dismantled and disabled" Venezuela's Russian-built air defense systems (including S-300s) during the initial raid.
- Equipment: Much of their Russian-made equipment, including Sukhoi fighter jets and tanks, is poorly maintained or grounded due to the country's economic crisis.
- Morale: Rank-and-file soldiers earn extremely low wages, leading to concerns about potential mass desertions if a large-scale ground war begins.
4. Current Government Actions
- State of Emergency: The government has declared a national state of emergency and activated all defense protocols.
- Diplomatic Pressure: They are working with allies like Russia, China, and Iran to bring the matter before the UN Security Council, labeling the U.S. action "unlawful aggression
