Are the Chinese really 盲目乐观??

来源: 2005-08-24 06:18:27 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

Recently there is a topic in this forum regarding sustainable economic growth of China. This is an interesting topic that I think worth further discussion.

Will the economic boom of China be able to continue until she becomes an advanced country??

During the late 80’s and late 90’s I spent my time playing money games in Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. Some of you here might still remember that economy of Malaysia and Thailand were booming at that time, and the whole world (well, almost) was predicting this region (Asia-Pacific excluding China and Japan) will become the 4th economic power in the 21th century, after USA, EU, and Japan. But just within 3 months in the mid 1997, most of the foreign investments within this region were pulling out, during which the financial crisis happened. By that time every aspect of these countries remain the same, the retreated foreign investors just wanted to find a better investment place for lower product cost sake. That’s why the foreign investments come to China.

We all know that the recent economic boom of China is purely due to the huge foreign investments, and the investors are predicting China will become a economic superpower in this century. All these things look and sound familiar to me. My concern is, will the foreign capitals go to other places once the production cost in China reaches the level of Thailand and Malaysia? If the answer is yes, does China foresee it and is finding the solutions to sustain the economic boom?