Posted: September 1, 2010 at 3:08 pm
The auto industry went through two bruising years in 2008 and 2009 when annual domestic sales dropped to about 10 million vehicles per year. This is in stark contrast to 2005 and 2006 when the figure was closer to 16 million. The depression in the industry drove GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy and caused tens of billions of dollars in losses among their financially stronger competition.
The sector has recovered somewhat this year, at least based on the progress made in the first half. The annual sales run-rate moved to about 12 million earlier in 2010 despite a raft of recalls led by Toyota. An improved economy and substantial incentives brought consumers back into showrooms.
The industry’s growth slowed in July, and August was one of the worst sales months in two decades. August last year may not be fair comparison because it was during the period when the federal government was running its “cash for clunkers” program which over 600,000 buyers took advantage. Still, domestic sales in August fell to 1,000,000 and the annual sales rate dropped to 11.7 million.
The following are the top ten August 2010 top auto sales year-to-date:
| Nameplate | Units sold August | Total YTD August |
| Ford F-series |
47,652.00 |
338,446.00 |
| Toyota Camry |
30,764.00 |
232,210.00 |
| Chevrolet Silverado |
34,084.00 |
223,381.00 |
| Honda Accord |
25,148.00 |
195,849.00 |
| Honda Civic |
22,803.00 |
190,649.00 |
| Toyota Matrix/Corolla |
20,280.00 |
177,112.00 |
| Ford Fusion |
17,082.00 |
147,472.00 |
| Nissan Altima |
18,491.00 |
147,072.00 |
| Chevrolet Malibu |
18,182.00 |
146,957.00 |
| Hyundai Sonata |
21,399.00 |
128,484.00 |
Read more:
What The Top-Ten Selling Cars Will Be For 2011 - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2010/09/01/what-the-top-ten-selling-cars-will-be-for-2011/#ixzz0yNdLo2ql
24/7 Wall St. looked at the sales of the top ten name plates in 2009, the top ten through August and an estimate for each for the balance of the year and used these to create a forecast for which cars and light trucks will be in the top ten in 2011.
The first important piece of data used in the analysis was the fact that it is very rare for the unit sales of any single model to fluctuate violently from year to year. It is rare that a new car like Ford’s Mustang will be launched as it was in 1964 and then become the best-selling car the following year.
Several models have had sharp growth in the last year. These include the Ford Fusion and Hyundai Sonata. The top ten list, however, continues to be dominated by several light pick-up trucks like the Ford F-series and a list of fuel-efficient cars from Japanese manufacturers, including the Honda. These cars have usually been models that were launched in the last three years and have done unusually well.
The full year 2010 estimate was created by the final number for the first eight months and an examination of the growth rate of these vehicles and those in the 11th through 15th position. Those models with unusually strong momentum on the bottom of the list could overtake the ninth or tenth cars from the January through August period.
The forecast for 2011 used a similar methodology to the methodology used to estimate the final four months of this year. Some vehicles have such tremendous annual sales that the odds that they will be out of the top 10 in 2011 are nearly impossible. That includes perennial market leaders like the Ford F-Series pick-up, the Toyota Camry, and Honda Accord. But, the weaker brands based on sales, those at the bottom of the 2010 top 10 list could be replaced. Those cars include the Chevy Malibu and Ford Escape.
Below are the 2009 domestic top ten vehicles sales for 2009, 2010, and the 2011 forecast. The 2011 numbers include the name of the vehicle, forecast sales for the year, the average base price of the vehicle, and the reason that each will do well. The sales for 2011 are based on the fact that the car market is expected to recover another 10% to 15% in unit sales next year.
1. Ford F-Series
The F-Series has been the top selling vehicle in the US for decades and the first series of the light truck launched in 1948. The popularity of light-trucks dates back to the earliest years of the automobile. Normally set up with only front seats and a large bed behind it, these products are powered by diesel or gas. They are highly useful to people who work in agriculture, building, and businesses that involve the hauling of light pay-loads from one place to another. The base F-150 retails for $23,000 dollars. 24/7 Wall St. forecasts that 535,000 F-series vehicles will be sold in 2011.
2. Chevrolet Silverado
The Silverado is one of a large group of light-trucks sold by every major manufacturer. The segment is crowed and may be among the most competitive sectors in the industry. The competitors include the Toyota Tundra, Dodge Ram, and GMC Sierra. The 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2011 sales: 310,000.
3. Toyota Camry
The Camry is one of a group of Japanese cars known for unusually high quality and fuel-economy. Camry sales flattened out in 2010, probably due to the large number of recalls of Toyota models. The base Camry sells for $20,000. The car also comes in a hybrid version. The 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2011 sales: 305,000.
4. Honda Accord
The Accord has not sold particularly well in 2010. This may be due to the fact that it is an aging brand. Ford and Hyundai also have very successful products in the sector. The Accord is another example of a car that does well in quality surveys and gets good gas mileage. The base price of the Accord is $22,000 and it launched its 2011 model year version this month. The 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2011 sales: 280,000.
5. Toyota Corolla/Matrix
The Corolla is priced well below the Camry and is positioned against the Civic and other “value” based cars that have smaller engines, substantial fuel-economy, and few frills. Sales have been flat this year compared to 2009, probably because of Toyota’s recall problems and the sharp drop that the Toyota brand has taken in many quality surveys. The base price for the Corolla is just over 15,000. The 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2011 sales: 270,000.
6. Chevrolet Malibu
The Malibu is the mid-sized sedan of GM’s flagship Chevrolet division. The car was relaunched in 2008, and the new model has been a rousing success. The base model sells for about $22,000. The 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2011 sales: 265,000.
7. Honda Civic
The Civic was once one of the smallest sedans on America’s roads. The Japanese car company has increased its size and horsepower to appeal to a broad audience. Civic sales have suffered from some of the same reasons that plague the Accord. The brand is old and the modest-sized sedan market is crowded. The base Civic is priced below $16,000. The 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2011 sales: 245,000.
8. Ford Fusion
The Fusion is a relatively new car introduced in 2005. It has done extraordinarily well. The Fusion, which is positioned as the mid-sized sedan between the Focus and Taurus, was named the Motor Trend Car of the Year for 2010. The base Fusion sells for just below $18,000. The 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2011 sales: 235,000.
9. Hyundai Sonata
The Sonata is part of the car line-up of the extraordinarily successful line of vehicles from Hyundai. The company had a very modest presence in the American market three years ago. Since then, it has become one of the few brands that has grown – in spite of the recession. Bargain prices and generous warranties have been critical to the car company’s success. The base price for the Sonata is just below $20,000. The 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2011 sales: 225,000.
10. Nissan Altima
The Altima is another offering in the mid-sized, no-frill, fuel-efficient part of the market. Sales have only risen moderately in 2010. It is another aging brand in the segment. The base price for the Altima is below $20,000. The 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2011 sales: 205,000.
2009 Top Ten Units Sold
| 2009 Top 10 | Units Sold |
| 1. Ford F-Series |
413,625 |
| 2. Toyota Camry |
356,824 |
| 3. Chevrolet Silverado |
316,544 |
| 4. Toyota Corolla |
296,874 |
| 5. Honda Accord |
290,056 |
| 6. Honda Civic |
259,722 |
| 7. Nissan Altima |
203,568 |
| 8. Honda CR-V |
191,214 |
| 9. Ford Fusion |
180,671 |
| 10. Dodge Ram |
177,268 |
2010 Top Ten Units Sold (Actual YTD August + Estimate)
| 2010 Top Ten | Units Sold |
| 1. Ford F-Series |
510,000 |
| 2. Chevrolet Silverado |
320,000 |
| 3. Toyota Camry |
295,000 |
| 4. Honda Accord |
295,000 |
| 5. Honda Civic |
280,000 |
| 6. Chevrolet Malibu |
240,000 |
| 7. Hyundai Sonata |
230,000 |
| 8. Toyota Corolla |
230,000 |
| 9. Ford Fusion |
220,000 |
| 10. Nissan Altima |
220,000 |
2010 Units Sold Forecast
| 2011 Top 10 | Units Sold |
| 1. Ford F-Series |
535,000 |
| 2. Chevrolet Silverado |
310,000 |
| 3. Toyota Camry |
305,000 |
| 4. Honda Accord |
280,000 |
| 5. Toyota Corolla |
270,000 |
| 6. Chevrolet Malibu |
265,000 |
| 7. Honda Civic |
245,000 |
| 8. Ford Fusion |
235,000 |
| 9. Hyundai Sonata |
225,000 |
| 10. Nissan Altima |
205,000 |
-Douglas A. McIntyre, Ashley C. Allen
