2016.03.09 14:26
(美国之音) - 星期二，美国民主党总统参选人桑德斯在北部密西根州举行的初选中出人意料地击败前国务卿希拉里·克林顿，与此同时，共和党总统参选人川普在密西根州、密西西比州和夏威夷州获胜，继续扩大领先优势。
很多选前民调显示希拉里·克林顿在密西根州大幅领先，但桑德斯获得50%的选票，以微弱多数获胜。希拉里·克林顿星期二轻松赢得南部密西西比州的初选。
桑德斯说，在密西根州的胜利意味着他的“政治革命”在全国拥有强大的力量，并表示他的竞选势头在尚未举行初选的地区更为强劲。桑德斯着重强调要反对腐败的竞选资金筹集行为、不公平的经济现状以及运作失灵的刑事司法体系。
希拉里·克林顿对俄亥俄州克利夫兰市的选民说，她为自己和桑德斯的竞选情况感到骄傲，并说共和党总统参选人相互诋毁。
在共和党方面，企业家川普在密西根州和密西西比州的初选中以明显优势获胜。佛罗里达州国会参议员鲁比奥在这两个州都位居第4，而且差距很大。
Why Bernie Sanders’s win in Michigan matters so much
By Chris Cillizza
March 9 at 8:26 AM
Clinton was supposed to win Michigan. What happened?
While she still won black voters, Hillary Clinton didn't have as big of a margin as in other states, preliminary exit polling suggests. Also nearly 6 in 10 Democratic primary voters in Michigan said international trade takes away U.S. jobs. Sanders won those voters by roughly 20 percentage points.
Hillary Clinton took more delegates out of the primaries in Michigan and Mississippi on Tuesday night. But Bernie Sanders, by winning in Michigan, scored a massively important symbolic victory that will likely re-energize his campaign and extend the Democratic presidential race for weeks, if not months.
“What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign ... is strong in every part of the country," Sanders said in brief remarks in Florida on Tuesday night. “We believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."
Given Sanders’s remarkable comeback in Michigan — most polling had him losing by more than 20 points — there are a handful of large, industrial states, many clumped in the Midwest, where Sanders now has to be considered viable, assuming he continues to ride the trade message that catapulted him to the top in the Wolverine State.
Ohio — and its haul of 66 delegates — looks good for Clinton as of this morning with a CNN poll showing her leading by 30 points. But, given Sanders’s surge in the final days before Michigan — not to mention the positive press he’ll get in Ohio and everywhere else from his Michigan win — it’s hard to totally write off his chances. Same goes for Illinois, which, like Ohio, votes on March 15. And Wisconsin on April 5. And Pennsylvania on April 26.
Putting aside the more technical aspects of what Sanders’s victory means, there’s also this: Winning Michigan makes it that much harder for the Clinton people to dismiss him as either a regional candidate or someone who can win only small, not very Democratic states that hold caucuses.
Sanders’s marquee victory before Tuesday night was in the New Hampshire primary Feb. 9. It was dismissed, effectively so, by the Clinton folks as simply a state choosing a hometown (or close enough) hero. Wins in Kansas and Nebraska were written off as largely meaningless amid Clinton’s continued delegate dominance. Sanders’s victories in Colorado and Minnesota — two larger states — were played down because they were caucuses, perceived as more favorable to the liberal Sanders than primaries.
But Michigan is a state where no one — not even Clintonworld — can take away what Sanders accomplished. This is a big, Midwestern state that is far more diverse than Iowa or New Hampshire. Clinton tried very hard to win. She didn't. Case closed.
Although Sanders’s win virtually ensures that this race goes through April — Pennsylvania’s primary isn’t until the end of that month — and maybe all the way through when California votes June 7, it still doesn’t change the underlying delegate math of the contest. And, there, Clinton retains a considerable edge.
Sanders’s narrow Michigan win netted him only seven more delegates than Clinton, while her massive victory in Mississippi gave her a 25 delegate edge. The night netted out then +18 for Clinton. Her overall delegate lead — when the unelected and unpledged superdelegates are added into the mix — stands at 650, and she is now more than halfway to the 2,383 delegates she needs to formally secure the nomination.
And so, Clinton remains favored to be the nominee. But on a night in which the Clinton campaign was hoping to take a big step forward in closing out Sanders’s uprising, they took a big step back instead. The race continues — and will continue for quite some time. That’s very good news for Sanders and bad news for Clinton. Period.
Political coalition is alive and well
By Michelle Hackman
March 9, 2016, 10:10 a.m. ET
Bernie Sanders’s political coalition – a mix of young, liberal, and independent voters – reasserted itself last night, boosting the Vermont senator to an unexpected win in Michigan, contradicting polls that had predicted a double-digit loss.
Sanders made up part of that ground by winning over voters who said they decided within a week of casting ballots, according to CBS exit polls. But his lead among that group – 7 percentage points – is not enough to explain the gulf in support Sanders was able to close.
His victory was likely fueled by strong turnout among voters with whom Sanders performs best.
He won his typically huge share of voters ages 18 to 29, with 81 percent of people in that age group voting in his favor. But Sanders was able to pull in younger voters more broadly; fully 67 percent of voters under age 45 swung his way, and they made up nearly half the electorate.
An unexpectedly large share of voters in the Michigan primary also identified themselves as liberal, with 56 percent using that moniker. Among those voters – the core of Sanders’s base – he won by more than 8 points.
In addition, voters identifying themselves as independents turned out in huge numbers, comprising 28 percent of the electorate. Nearly seven in 10 independent voters broke for Sanders, while fewer than six in 10 voters identifying themselves as Democrats sided with Clinton.
Finally, it looks as though Sanders may have cut into Clinton’s minority "firewall," giving himself an extra boost. After she won a bevy of primaries in which eight in 10 or even nine in 10 black voters swung in her favor, 65 percent of black voters in Michigan picked Clinton last night; Sanders garnered 31 percent of the black vote. That was no accident; in the days leading up to this primary, Sanders worked hard to court black voters, campaigning hard in places like Detroit and Flint with an economics-based message.
"What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign … is strong in every part of the country and we firmly believe our strongest areas are yet to happen," Sanders said in a brief election-night speech.
And he is right about at least one thing: The primary calendar next turns to other Midwestern states, including Ohio and Illinois, which could offer Sanders more Michigan-style wins.
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