最近读了一些解密的美国档案，有关日本二战投降的部分。是美国的原子弹还是苏联出兵对日宣战，促成了日本的最后投降？美国在45年8月6日，扔下第一棵原子弹。之后的1~2天，日本主战的仍占上风， 8月9日，苏联撕毁了苏日中立合约，对日宣战，当日，美投下第二颗原子弹。监听到日本高层开始讨论投降，美国暂停了核弹攻击计划。美国原计划在8至10月，再投7颗核弹。
如果苏联不出兵，要用多少核弹，日本才会马上投降？可惜历史不能假设。
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/the-final-months-of-the-war-with-japan-signals-intelligence-u-s-invasion-planning-and-the-a-bomb-decision/csi9810001.html
Groves expected to have another atomic bomb ready for use on 19 August, with three more in September and a further three in October.[274] Two more Fat Man assemblies were readied. The third core was scheduled to leave Kirtland Field for Tinian on 12 August.[273] Robert Bacher was packaging it at the Ice House at Los Alamos when he received word that the Japanese had initiated surrender negotiations.[275] Groves ordered the shipments suspended. On 11 August, he phoned Warren with orders to organize a survey team to report on the damage and radioactivity at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A party equipped with portable Geiger counters arrived in Hiroshima on 8 September headed by Farrell and Warren, with Japanese Rear Admiral Masao Tsuzuki, who acted as a translator. They remained in Hiroshima until 14 September and then surveyed Nagasaki from 19 September to 8 October.[276] This and other scientific missions to Japan would provide valuable scientific and historical data.[277]
如果苏联不出兵，要用多少核弹，日本才会马上投降？可惜历史不能假设。
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/the-final-months-of-the-war-with-japan-signals-intelligence-u-s-invasion-planning-and-the-a-bomb-decision/csi9810001.html
Groves expected to have another atomic bomb ready for use on 19 August, with three more in September and a further three in October.[274] Two more Fat Man assemblies were readied. The third core was scheduled to leave Kirtland Field for Tinian on 12 August.[273] Robert Bacher was packaging it at the Ice House at Los Alamos when he received word that the Japanese had initiated surrender negotiations.[275] Groves ordered the shipments suspended. On 11 August, he phoned Warren with orders to organize a survey team to report on the damage and radioactivity at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A party equipped with portable Geiger counters arrived in Hiroshima on 8 September headed by Farrell and Warren, with Japanese Rear Admiral Masao Tsuzuki, who acted as a translator. They remained in Hiroshima until 14 September and then surveyed Nagasaki from 19 September to 8 October.[276] This and other scientific missions to Japan would provide valuable scientific and historical data.[277]
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