因为计生,中国永远超不过美国,而且很快会被印度赶上

Bloomberg Business Week Jan 17-23, P 10:

(When it comes to comparing China with India) The surprise winner is India, which despite its red tape, corruption, and inefficient politics will grow faster than China both per capita and in overall terms, both banks (HSBC and Standard Chartered) project. China 's topline GDP growth will be inhibited by its one-child policy, which will cause its working-age population to shrink starting in the 2020s decade, says HSBC. India's working age population will grow throughout the forecast period, the bank predicts, ...

翻译：HSBC 和 Standard Chartered这两个世界著名银行预计，印度社会虽然有腐败和过多的条条框框，但未来经济在总体和人均方面都会超过中国。原因很简单，中国的独生子女政策会使中国劳动人口在2020开始大量减少。而印度的劳动人口将会在未来一直增长。

 

Forbes Feb 12, 2011, Page 16: Measuring America's Foes

....Looking ahead to the midcentury we can foresee certain welcome adjustments. By 2050 China 's population, while expected to be around 1.4 billion, will probably be dropping and have an aging profile. The U.S. population will be more than 400 million, be steadily rising and have a more youthful profile. It's possible, though unlikely, that by then China's GNP will be larger than America's, but in every other respect the U.S. economy will be well ahead, especially in high tech.

 

到本世纪中,中国将不再对美国领导地位造成任何挑战.到2050年中国的14亿人口将会开始下降,而且非常老龄化.美国人口将会稳定增长到4亿,而且有着健康年轻的结构.中国国民总产值虽然有很微小的可能超过美国,但在其他任何方面,尤其是高科技方面,中国会远远落后于美国. (笔者注:高科技,创新等等都出自年轻人,老龄化社会将在这方面非常欠缺)