While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
虽然西方媒体在选举前夕从德黑兰发回的报道显示，总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德的主要竞争对手，米雅8226;侯萨因8226;姆萨维，获得公众的热情支持，可我们在对伊朗三十个省份的样本资料进行数理分析后发现，总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德的支持度遥遥领先。Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
在伊朗很少进行过独立和未经管制的全国统计。通常，选举前举行的民调是由政府管控，民调结果也经常遭到严肃质疑。但由我们这个非盈利组织在五月十一至五月二十日举行的民调，是伊朗最近两年举行的第三次。我们是通过电话收集样本，并在 Farsi 进行实地调查，这是由一家民调公司代办。这家公司曾经在同一地区为 ABC 新闻和 BBC 工作，并为此获得艾美奖。民调的资金来源是洛克费勒基金会。The breadth of Ahmadinejad's support was apparent in our preelection survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over Mousavi.
在我们选前的民调中，总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德存在众多支持。在竞选期间的一个例子是，米雅8226;侯萨因8226;姆萨维强调他的背景是占伊朗人口第二大的 Azeri 族人 (他不是第一大族波斯人) 用来号召 Azeri 族选民支持。而我们的民调资料显示，即使在 Azeri 族人中，总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德仍占有二比一的优势。Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.
很多西方评论将伊朗的年轻一代以及网上一族当作这次选举的异数。但是我们的民调发现，只有三分之一的伊朗人上网浏览。而比起其他的年龄段，在十八至二十四岁的年龄段中，总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德获得最强有力的支持度。The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.
而且我们的民调还发现，米雅8226;侯萨因8226;姆萨维仅在唯一的一个团体，或者人群中，能够领先或者抗衡总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德，那就是大学生和研究生，以及伊朗的 "高薪" 阶层。在我们做民调期间，大约有三分之一的伊朗人还没有决定投谁。但是我们发现，我们民调所获得的选民分布势态和伊朗政府公布的选举结果相吻合。这一点似乎证明选举结果被大量作弊操弄的可能性不大。Some might argue that the professed support for Ahmadinejad we found simply reflected fearful respondents' reluctance to provide honest answers to pollsters. Yet the integrity of our results is confirmed by the politically risky responses Iranians were willing to give to a host of questions. For instance, nearly four in five Iranians -- including most Ahmadinejad supporters -- said they wanted to change the political system to give them the right to elect Iran's supreme leader, who is not currently subject to popular vote. Similarly, Iranians chose free elections and a free press as their most important priorities for their government, virtually tied with improving the national economy. These were hardly "politically correct" responses to voice publicly in a largely authoritarian society.
一些人可能可以批评我们的民调结果是因为我们持支持总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德的立场，这使得被访问者不敢透露他们的真实立场。但我们民调结果的真实性可以从被访者对一系列更险恶的政治问题的回答中印证出来。比如，将近五分之四的伊朗人，包括几乎所有的总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德的支持者，都表明他们希望政治体制改革，使他们有权选举伊朗最高领导人 (目前最高领导人不是民选的)。同样的，伊朗人视自由选举和新闻自由为政府最首要责任，这一呼声几乎与发展国家经济的要求持平。在这一点上，就根本反映出选民的回答不存在强权政治的阴影。Indeed, and consistently among all three of our surveys over the past two years, more than 70 percent of Iranians also expressed support for providing full access to weapons inspectors and a guarantee that Iran will not develop or possess nuclear weapons, in return for outside aid and investment. And 77 percent of Iranians favored normal relations and trade with the United States, another result consistent with our previous findings.
确实来说，我们两年来的三次民调都一致表明，超过百分之七十的伊朗人支持对伊朗进行完全核武检验，并保证和支持伊朗不发展和拥有核武器，用来作为交换条件获得国际社会的援助和投资。Iranians view their support for a more democratic system, with normal relations with the United States, as consonant with their support for Ahmadinejad. They do not want him to continue his hard-line policies. Rather, Iranians apparently see Ahmadinejad as their toughest negotiator, the person best positioned to bring home a favorable deal -- rather like a Persian Nixon going to China.
伊朗民众视一个更为民主的体制，与美国关系正常化以及支持现任总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德并不存在矛盾。他们不希望他继续坚持他目前的强硬政治路线。相反的，伊朗人视总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德为有手腕的谈判者，视他最有可能为伊朗获取最大利益，类似于当年尼克松总统访问中国。Allegations of fraud and electoral manipulation will serve to further isolate Iran and are likely to increase its belligerence and intransigence against the outside world. Before other countries, including the United States, jump to the conclusion that the Iranian presidential elections were fraudulent, with the grave consequences such charges could bring, they should consider all independent information. The fact may simply be that the reelection of President Ahmadinejad is what the Iranian people wanted.
对伊朗选举中存在作弊或者操弄的指控，有可能疏离伊朗，也可能使得它对外部世界存有敌意并强化它的立场。外部世界，包括美国，在指责伊朗总统选举作弊前，应该先查看所有来源独立的信息。事实真相可能就是伊朗人民期望总统艾哈迈迪8226;内贾德连任。Ken Ballen is president of Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism. Patrick Doherty is deputy director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. The groups' May 11-20 polling consisted of 1,001 interviews across Iran and had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
作者之一，Ken Ballen 是 "明日不再恐怖" 组织主席，公众咨询中心，是一个非盈利组织。作者之一，Patrick Doherty 是 "新美国基金会"美国战略项目的执行人。该组织在五月11 - 20 伊朗全境举行的民调有一千零一名受访者，统计误差为三点一个百分点。For more on polling in Iran, read Jon Cohen's Behind the Numbers.
阅读更多 Jon Cohen 有关伊朗选举的文章，请点上面的连接。 （金笔翻译）