Outdoor Science Talk 1 - Why is Earthquake Prediction so Difficult?
Earthquakes can be extreme catastrophes. Rapid urbanization of earthquake-prone regions means that a future earthquake with a million fatalities is a distinct possibility. By some estimates, the next large earthquake under Tokyo could cause trillions of dollars in direct economic losses, which would have serious global financial consequences.
The consequences of earthquakes might be mitigated if they could be predicted; however, to date, earthquake prediction has proven elusive. Earthquakes differ in this respect from other natural hazards, which to some extent are predictable over time scales short enough to allow an effective response. The combination of unpredictability, abrupt onset, rarity, and unfamiliarity means that the risk posed by earthquakes is difficult to manage. It is natural for us—as well as our government—to focus on the many other immediate, and more readily predictable, problems that demand our attention.
In this talk, Gregory Beroza will cover what it is that makes earthquake prediction an intrinsically difficult problem. He will also cover aspects of the earthquake process that we can predict, and what the prospects are for future progress.
GREGORY C. BEROZA, Professor of Geophysics
Gregory Beroza has been on the Stanford faculty for eighteen years. He serves as Deputy Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, and is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union. His research focuses on using seismic waves to understand how earthquakes work. He received a PhD from MIT.
Thursday, July 10, 7:00 pm
Lawn outside Cantor Arts Center
FREE; no registration required
Earthquakes can be extreme catastrophes. Rapid urbanization of earthquake-prone regions means that a future earthquake with a million fatalities is a distinct possibility. By some estimates, the next large earthquake under Tokyo could cause trillions of dollars in direct economic losses, which would have serious global financial consequences.
The consequences of earthquakes might be mitigated if they could be predicted; however, to date, earthquake prediction has proven elusive. Earthquakes differ in this respect from other natural hazards, which to some extent are predictable over time scales short enough to allow an effective response. The combination of unpredictability, abrupt onset, rarity, and unfamiliarity means that the risk posed by earthquakes is difficult to manage. It is natural for us—as well as our government—to focus on the many other immediate, and more readily predictable, problems that demand our attention.
In this talk, Gregory Beroza will cover what it is that makes earthquake prediction an intrinsically difficult problem. He will also cover aspects of the earthquake process that we can predict, and what the prospects are for future progress.
GREGORY C. BEROZA, Professor of Geophysics
Gregory Beroza has been on the Stanford faculty for eighteen years. He serves as Deputy Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, and is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union. His research focuses on using seismic waves to understand how earthquakes work. He received a PhD from MIT.
Thursday, July 10, 7:00 pm
Lawn outside Cantor Arts Center
FREE; no registration required
选择“Disable on www.wenxuecity.com”
选择“don't run on pages on this domain”
