indeed it is not correct

来源: 于 2012-06-15 10:10:05 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次

you have 95% chance of failure, you will get $3M for your 30 homes. pay off the mortgage, you will still owe to banks $1.5M. Assume you take bankrupcy, you lose 1.5M downpay.

So your gain is 0.95*(-1.5)+0.05*4.5= loss of 1.2 Million.